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Advice on fishing opportunities for Northeast Arctic cod in 2027 in ICES subareas 1 and 2

Author(s): Joint Russian-Norwegian Working Group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN- AFWG)

Report series: IMR-VNIRO 2026-1 Published: 26.06.2026 Project No.: 15565
Approved by: Research Director(s): Geir Huse Program leader(s): Maria Fossheim External: Research Director Oleg Bulatov (VNIRO)

1 - Stock Name: Northeast Arctic cod (ICES subareas 1 and 2)

1.1 - Advice on fishing opportunities

The Joint Russian-Norwegian Arctic Fisheries Working Group (JRN-AFWG) advises that when the Joint Norwegian–Russian Fisheries Commission management plan is applied, catches in 2027 should be no more than 312 667 tonnes.

1.2 - Stock development over time

Fishing pressure on the stock in 2025 was above Fpa , within the Fmgt range (see Table 4), and below Flim . The spawning stock biomass in 2026 is below MSY Btrigger and Bpa , but above Blim.

Figure 1. Cod in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Catch, recruitment, F, SSB and TSB (total stock biomass, age 3+) with 95 % confidence levels. The biomass reference points relate to SSB.
Figure 1. Cod in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Catch, recruitment, F, SSB and TSB (total stock biomass, age 3+) with 95 % confidence levels. The biomass reference points relate to SSB.
Variable Value Notes
F ages 5–10 (2026) 0.371 TAC constraint
SSB (2027) 345 518 Short-term forecast
R age 3 (2026) 243 000 R ecruitment model estimate
R age 3 (2027) 240 000 R ecruitment model estimate
R age 3 (2028) 329 000 R ecruitment model estimate
R age 3 (2029) 334 000 R ecruitment model estimate
Total catch (2026) 285 000 Corresponding to TAC

1.3 - Catch scenarios

Table 1 . Cod in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Assumptions made for the interim year and in the forecast. SSB, catch in tonnes, and recruitment in thousands.
Basis Catch (2027) F (2027) SSB (2028) % SSB change * % TAC change ** % Advice change ***
Advice basis            
Management plan ^ 312 667 0.35 420 936 22 10 16
Other options            
F = 0 0 0 603 750 75 -100 -100
F=0.30 ^^ 272 528 0.30 443 194 28 -4 1
F = F2025 448 559 0.548 348 514 1 57 66
F=Fpa = FMSY 347 793 0.40 401 774 16 22 29
Flim 562 414 0.74 291 572 -16 97 109
Table 2 . Cod in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Annual catch options. All weights are in tonnes.

* SSB 2028 relative to SSB 2027.

** Advice for 2027 relative to TAC for 2026 (285 000 tonnes).

*** Advice for 2027 relative to advice for 2026 (269 440 tonnes)

^ Since SSB in 2027 is below Bpa = 460 000 tonnes, F = 0.40*SSB 2027 /Bpa = 0.30 is used in the 3-year prediction, giving catches of 272 528, 315 183 and 350 290 tonnes in 2027, 2028 and 2029, respectively. The average of this is 312 667 tonnes.

^^ F=0.30 corresponds to applying the harvest control rule without a 3-year prediction.

The advice for 2027 is 16% higher than the advice for 2026. This increase is mainly due to better year classes entering the fishery.

Advice basis Joint Norwegian-Russian Fisheries Commission management plan
Management plan At the 46th meeting of the Joint Norwegian-Russian Fisheries Commission (JNRFC) in October 2016, the previously used management plan was amended, and the current plan is as follows: The TAC is calculated as the average catch predicted for the coming 3 years, using the target level of exploitation (F tr ). The target level of exploitation is calculated according to the spawning-stock biomass (SSB) in the first year of the forecast as follows: - if SSB < Bpa , then Ftr = SSB / Bpa× FMSY ; - if Bpa ≤ SSB ≤ 2×Bpa , then Ftr = FMSY ; - if 2 × Bpa < SSB < 3 × Bpa , then Ftr = FMSY  × (1 + 0.5 × (SSB – 2 × Bpa ) / Bpa ); - if SSB ≥ 3 × Bpa , then Ftr  = 1.5 × F MSY ; where FMSY  = 0.40 and Bpa  = 460 000 tonnes. If the spawning-stock biomass in the present year, the previous year, and each of the three years of prediction is above Bpa , the TAC should not be changed by more than ±20% compared with the previous year’s TAC. In this case, Ftr should however not be below 0.30. In 2014, JNRFC decided that from 2015 onwards, Norway and Russia can transfer to or borrow from the following year up to 10% of the country's quota. In 2021, this was increased to 15% as an extraordinary measure for transfers between 2021 and 2022 only. ICES evaluated this harvest control rule in 2016 (ICES, 2016) and 2021 (ICES, 2021) and concluded that it is precautionary. JRN-AFWG 2025 conducted an analysis which concluded that the harvest control rule remains precautionary under recent recruitment conditions (Howell et al. 2025).

1.4 - Basis of the advice

Table 3 . Cod in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). The basis of the advice.

1.5 - Quality of the assessment

After the 2021 benchmark, the year-to-year revision of SSB has been minimal. The historical fishing mortality was for many years adjusted upwards from assessment to assessment, but this year there was a downward adjustment of F in 2024. Recruitment is often overestimated. The Mohn’s rho is satisfactory both for SSB, F and recruitment (all have an absolute value of 16% or less).

Figure 2 . Cod in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Historical assessment results. There was a benchmark revision in 2021. The shaded areas indicate the 95% confidence intervals for the 2026 assessment. The last data point in each recruitment line is a prediction.
Figure 2 . Cod in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Historical assessment results. There was a benchmark revision in 2021. The shaded areas indicate the 95% confidence intervals for the 2026 assessment. The last data point in each recruitment line is a prediction.

1.6 - Issues relevant for the advice

This stock assessment has been conducted by the Joint Russian-Norwegian Arctic Fisheries Working Group (JRN-AFWG) , consisting of scientists from VNIRO (Russia) and IMR (Norway) , since 2022 (Howell et al., 2026).

This advice has been conducted outside ICES and should not be considered as ICES advice. However, this assessment and advice have been produced following the methodology agreed at the ICES benchmark in 2021 (ICES, 2021).

Fisheries targeting Northeast Arctic (NEA) cod take as bycatch a considerable part of the total golden redfish (Sebastes norvegicus) catch, and the bycatch of the golden redfish is still above any sustainable catch level. Bycatch of golden redfish should be kept as low as possible . Bycatch of coastal cod should be kept as low as possible in order to avoid overfishing of the coastal cod (Gadus morhua ) stocks (ICES, 2026).

During the last decade, median recruitment has been below the long-term average. Following the average 2021 yearclass, low recruitment is predicted for the subsequent yearclasses. Future development of the stock is therefore dependent on the survival of the 2021 yearclass. Therefore, maintaining fishing pressure on this yearclass at or below that recommended in the HCR is critical to keep the stock at biologically safe levels.

The catch in 2026 is expected to be close to the TAC when taking into account transfers of quota between years and the expected level of the coastal cod catch. As last year, it was found to be more appropriate to use TAC constraint than Fsq in the intermediate year, as Fsq would imply a catch in 2026 of 391 000 tonnes, i.e. 106 000 tonnes above the TAC.

The spawning stock in 2026 is estimated to be about halfway between Bpa and Blim , and the lowest since 2000. The predicted SSB in 2027 is only very slightly higher. It should be noted that the actual SSB at spawning time in 2027 will depend on the TAC in 2027, as a large proportion of the fishery on spawning cod takes place before spawning time around 1 April. In the current situation with a very low SSB, this could affect the SSB at spawning time in 2027 considerably. Therefore, a 2027 TAC above advice could directly result in recruitment impairment for this stock. Given the poor status of the stock, any quota over the current advice increases the risk of the spawning stock being below Blim .

The TAC for 2026 was set above the scientific advice. All predictions presented here are dependent on future TACs being set equal to the scientific advice based on the agreed management plan.

The predictions for 2027 and following years indicate that, if the scientific advice is followed, then we expect that SSB, catches, and total stock biomass will increase after 2027, but that SSB will remain below Bpa until 2029.

Based on the HCR and the predicted SSB in 2027, F = 0.40*SSB2027 /Bpa = 0.30 is used as Ftarget for the advice. Applying F=  0.30  to the projected stock in 2027 would give a quota advice of  272 528 tonnes. The three-year look ahead component in the HCR results in the actual advice being higher (at 312 667 tonnes) because the HCR accounts for the projection that the stock biomass is expected to increase from 2027 to 2029, assuming the catch advice is followed. 

Exploratory analysis of one possible formulation of an HCR which is S-shaped when SSB is below Bpa  was presented at JRN-AFWG. Using that particular formulation with a three-year prediction as in the existing HCR would give an Ftarget of 0.41 , giving catches of 329 735, 360 327 and 381 530 tonnes in 2027 , 2028 and 2029 , respectively. The average of this is 357 198 tonnes. Note that this is not the agreed HCR and is not being suggested as the basis for management but is presented here to facilitate further exploration of such a rule. In particular, the precise formulation of such a rule (especially the degree to which it deviates from the current straight line) would need to be explored by JRN-AFWG before it could be recommended for use in management.

The application of the 20% limit on annual TAC change in the management plan led to fishing pressure well above the target in the HCR for several years while the stock was declining from the peak biomass.

Framework Reference point Value Technical basis Source
MSY approach MSY Btrigger 460 000 tonnes Bpa , and trigger point in HCR ICES (2003, 2021)
FMSY range 0.40 – 0.60 Long-term simulations ICES (2003, 2021)
Precautionary approach Blim 220 000 tonnes Change point regression ICES (2003, 2021)
Bpa 460 000 tonnes The lowest SSB estimate having >90% probability of remaining above Blim ICES (2003, 2021)
Flim 0.74 F corresponding to an equilibrium stock = Blim ICES (2003, 2021)
Fpa 0.40 The highest F estimate having >90% probability of remaining below Flim ICES (2003, 2021)
Management plan SSBmgt 460 000 tonnes Two-step (double hockey-stick) HCR, see Table 3 ICES (2017)
Fmgt 0.40 – 0.60 Two-step (double hockey-stick) HCR, see Table 3 ICES (2017)

1.7 - Reference points

Table 4 . Cod in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Reference points, values, and their technical basis.
ICES stock data category 1
Assessment type Age-based analytical assessment (SAM) that uses catches in the model and in the forecast.
Input data Commercial catches (international landings, ages and length frequencies from catch sampling); four survey indices (Joint bottom trawl survey Barents Sea, Jan–Mar; Joint acoustic survey Barents Sea and Lofoten, Feb–Mar; Russian bottom trawl survey, October–December; Joint Ecosystem survey, August-October); annual maturity data from the four surveys; natural mortalities from annual stomach sampling.
Discards and bycatch Discarding is considered negligible in recent years (below 5%). Bycatch is included.
Indicators None.
Other information The methodology of assessment adopted by the last ICES benchmark for the stock in February 2021 (ICES, 2021) was mainly followed. For the recruitment predictions the revised approach adopted in 2024 was used. In 2026, the settings in the SAM assessment model were revised to allow for a functional relationship between observation variance and the corresponding prediction . This gave a better model fit to the observations.
Working group Joint Russian-Norwegian Arctic Fisheries Working Group (JRN-AFWG).

1.8 - Basis of the assessment

Table 5 . Cod in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Basis of the assessment and advice.
Year Official advice Catch corresponding to advice Agreed TAC Official catches Unreported landings (included in catches used in the assessment) Catches used in assessment
1987 Gradual reduction in F 595000 560000 552000   523071
1988 F = 0.51; TAC (Advice November 1987, revised advice May 1988) 530000 (320000–360000) 590000 (451000) 459000   434939
1989 Large reduction in F 335000 300000 348000   332481
1990 F at Flow; TAC 172000 160000 210000 25000 212000
1991 F at Flow; TAC 215000 215000 294000 50000 319158
1992 Within safe biological limits 250000 356000 421000 130000 513234
1993 Healthy stock 256000 500000 575000 50000 581611
1994 No long-term gains in increased F 649000 700000 795000 25000 771086
1995 No long-term gains in increased F 681000 700000 763000   739999
1996 No long-term gains in increased F 746000 700000 759000   732228
1997 Well below Fmed < 993000 850000 792000   762403
1998 F less than Fmed 514000 654000 615000   592624
1999 Reduce F to below Fpa 360000 480000 506000   484910
2000 Increase B above Bpa in 2001 110000 390000     414870
2001 High probability of SSB> Bpa in 2003 263000 395000     426471
2002 Reduce F to well below 0.25 181000 395000   90000 535045
2003 Reduce F to below Fpa 305000 395000   115000 551990
2004 Reduce F to below Fpa 398000 486000   117000 606445
2005 Take into account coastal cod and redfish bycatches. Apply catch rule. 485000 485000   166000 641276
2006 Take into account coastal cod and redfish bycatches. Apply amended catch rule. 471000 471000   67100 537642
2007 Take into account coastal cod and redfish bycatches. Fpa 309000 424000   41087 486883
2008 Take into account coastal cod and redfish bycatches. Apply catch rule. 409000 430000   15000 464171
2009 Take into account coastal cod and redfish bycatches. Apply catch rule. 473000 525000   0 523431
2010 Take into account coastal cod and redfish bycatches. Apply catch rule. 577500 607000   0 609983
2011 Take into account coastal cod and redfish bycatches. Apply catch rule. 703000 703000   0 719829
2012 Take into account coastal cod and redfish bycatches. Apply catch rule. 751000 751000   0 727663
2013 Take into account coastal cod and S. marinus ^^ bycatches. Apply catch rule. 940000 1000000   0 966209
2014 Take into account coastal cod and S. marinus^^ bycatches. Apply catch rule. 993000 993000   0 986449
2015 Take into account coastal cod and S. norvegicus bycatches. Apply catch rule. 894000 894000   0 864384
2016 Take into account coastal cod and S. norvegicus bycatches. Apply catch rule. 805000 894000   0 849422
2017 Take into account coastal cod and S. norvegicus bycatches. Apply management plan. ≤ 805000 890000 ^   0 868276
2018 Take into account coastal cod and S. norvegicus bycatches. Apply management plan. ≤ 712000 775000   0 778627
2019 Take into account coastal cod and S. norvegicus bycatches. Apply management plan. ≤ 674678 725000   0 692609
2020 Apply management plan ≤ 689672 738000   0 692903
2021 Apply management plan ≤ 885600 885600   0 767284
2022 Apply management plan ≤ 708480 708480   0 719211
2023 Apply management plan ≤ 566784 566784   0 582552
2024 Apply management plan ≤ 453427 453427   0 453040
2025 Apply management plan ≤ 311587 340000   0 329468
2026 Apply management plan ≤ 269440 285000      
2027 Apply management plan ≤ 312667        

1.9 - History of the advice, catch, and management

Table 6 . Cod in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Official advice, agreed TACs, the official and unreported landings, and catches used in the assessment. Since 2022, catch compilation, assessment, and advice has been carried out by the Joint Russian-Norwegian Arctic Fisheries working group (JRN-AFWG). Prior to 2022, this work was conducted by ICES. All weights are in tonnes.

^ The 2017 TAC was set according to the management plan agreed by JNRFC in October 2016.

^^ Until 2014 this species was named Sebastes marinus , thereafter Sebastes norvegicus .

Year Faroe Islands France German Dem.Rep. Fed.Rep. Germany Greenland Iceland Norway Poland United Kingdom Russia* Spain Others Total
1961 3934 13755 3921 8129     268377 - 158113 325780   1212 783221
1962 3109 20482 1532 6503     225615 - 175020 476760   245 909266
1963 - 18318 129 4223     205056 108 129779 417964   - 775577
1964 - 8634 297 3202     149878 - 94549 180550   585 437695
1965 - 526 91 3670     197085 - 89962 152780   816 444930
1966 - 2967 228 4284     203792 - 103012 169300   121 483704
1967 - 664 45 3632     218910 - 87008 262340   6 572605
1968 - - 225 1073     255611 - 140387 676758   - 1074084
1969 29374 - 5907 5543     305241 7856 231066 612215   133 1197226
1970 26265 44245 12413 9451     377606 5153 181481 276632   - 933246
1971 5877 34772 4998 9726     407044 1512 80102 144802   215 689048
1972 1393 8915 1300 3405     394181 892 58382 96653   166 565287
1973 1916 17028 4684 16751     285184 843 78808 387196   276 792686
1974 5717 46028 4860 78507     287276 9898 90894 540801   38453 1102434
1975 11309 28734 9981 30037     277099 7435 101843 343580   19368 829377
1976 11511 20941 8946 24369     344502 6986 89061 343057   18090 867463
1977 9167 15414 3463 12763     388982 1084 86781 369876   17771 905301
1978 9092 9394 3029 5434     363088 566 35449 267138   5525 698715
1979 6320 3046 547 2513     294821 15 17991 105846   9439 440538
1980 9981 1705 233 1921     232242 3 10366 115194   8789 380434
1981 12825 3106 298 2228     277818   5262 83000 14500 - 399037
1982 11998 761 302 1717     287525   6601 40311 14515 - 363730
1983 11106 126 473 1243     234000   5840 22975 14229 - 289992
1984 10674 11 686 1010     230743   3663 22256 8608 - 277651
1985 13418 23 1019 4395     211065   3335 62489 7846 4330 307920
1986 18667 591 1543 10092     232096   7581 150541 5497 3505 430113
1987 15036 1 986 7035     268004   10957 202314 16223 2515 523071
1988 15329 2551 605 2803     223412   8107 169365 10905 1862 434939
1989 15625 3231 326 3291     158684   7056 134593 7802 1273 332481
1990 9584 592 169 1437     88737   3412 74609 7950 510 187000
1991 8981 975   2613     126226   3981 119427** 3677 3278 269158
1992 11663 2   3911 3337   168460   6120 182315 6217 1209 383234
1993 17435 3572   5887 5389 9374 221051   11336 244860 8800 3907 531611
1994 22826 1962   8283 6882 36737 318395   15579 291925 14929 28568 746086
1995 22262 4912   7428 7462 34214 319987   16329 296158 15505 15742 739999
1996 17758 5352   8326 6529 23005 319158   16061 305317 15871 14851 732228
1997 20076 5353   6680 6426 4200 357825   18066 313344 17130 13303 762403
1998 14290 1197   3841 6388 1423 284647   14294 244115 14212 8217 592624
1999 13700 2137   3019 4093 1985 223390   11315 210379 8994 5898 484910
2000 13350 2621   3513 5787 7562 192860   9165 166202 8695 5115 414870
2001 12500 2681   4524 5727 5917 188431   8698 183572 9196 5225 426471
2002 15693 2934   4517 6419 5975 202559   8977 184072 8414 5484 445045
2003 19427 2921   4732 7026 5963 191977   8711 182160 7924 6149 436990
2004 19226 3621   6187 8196 7201 212117   14004 201525 11285 6082 489445
2005 16273 3491   5848 8135 5874 207825   10744 200077 9349 7660 475276
2006 16327 4376   3837 8164 5972 201987   10594 203782 9219 6271 470527
2007 14788 3190   4619 5951 7316 199809   9298 186229 9496 5101 445796
2008 15812 3149   4955 5617 7535 196598   8287 190225 9658 7336 449171
2009 16905 3908   8585 4977 7380 224298   8632 229291 12013 7442 523431
2010 15977 4499   8442 6584 11299 264701   9091 267547 12657 9185 609983
2011 13429 1173   4621 7155 12734 331535   8210 310326 13291 17354^ 719829
2012 17523 2841   8500 8520 9536 315739   11166 329943 12814 11081 727663
2013 13833 7858   8010 7885 14734 438734   12536 432314 15042 15263 966209
2014 33298 8149   6225 10864 18205 431846   14762 433479 16378 13243 986449
2015 26568 7480   6427 7055 16120 377983   11778 381778 19905 9880 864384
2016 24084 7946   6336 8607 16031 348949   13583 394107 14640 15139 849422
2017 28637 9554   5977 13638 11925 357419   16731 396180 14414 13802 868276
2018 26152 6605   9768 12743 10708 333539   11533 340364 13143 14071 778627
2019 22270 6371   8470 7553 12294 282120   11214 316813 13939 11565 692609
2020 21679 5796   9725 7391 9734 289472   12113 312683 11403 12908 692903
2021 21767 4459   6190 8246 8933 337931   5426 352064 11080 11188 767284
2022 21530 4988   7134 7688 6214 310145   7024 333697 12214 8577 719211
2023 17556 4632   5630 3994 5157 242117   5972 276923 8030 12539 582552
2024 15938 4677   5632 4000 3756 171480   4832 222661 6417 13647 453040
2025*** 14620 4588   5408 3702 0 129500   4658 148384 5770 12838 329468

1.10 - History of catch and landings

Table 7 . Cod in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). History of commercial landings by country. Catch information from 2021 and onwards has been provided by the Joint Russian-Norwegian Arctic Fisheries working group (JRN-AFWG). Prior to 2021, this work was conducted by ICES. All weights are in tonnes.

* USSR prior to 1991.

** Includes Baltic countries.

*** Provisional figures.

^ Includes unspecified EU catches.

Year Recruitment Spawning-stock biomass Total catch Fishing mortality
Recruitment (Age 3) Low High SSB Low High F (ages 5–10) Low High
thousands Tonnes tonnes
1946 1118705 770985 1623248 958708 863186 1064801 706000 0.242 0.208 0.281
1947 606990 424453 868028 985876 886372 1096550 882017 0.307 0.271 0.349
1948 450421 313303 647550 820536 740918 908709 774295 0.344 0.304 0.391
1949 665916 472365 938772 617585 560365 680648 800122 0.371 0.328 0.418
1950 1015895 722275 1428877 553748 503818 608626 731982 0.381 0.338 0.429
1951 2347123 1669078 3300617 500725 454192 552026 827180 0.413 0.368 0.463
1952 2318293 1665625 3226707 493884 445061 548064 876795 0.465 0.414 0.523
1953 2408053 1735555 3341134 409585 368542 455198 695546 0.407 0.362 0.459
1954 868392 624342 1207839 411405 371760 455278 826021 0.432 0.384 0.485
1955 378782 270810 529804 333945 304030 366804 1147841 0.516 0.462 0.577
1956 765497 550783 1063914 287691 262925 314790 1343068 0.575 0.515 0.643
1957 1433137 1036436 1981677 213583 194733 234257 792557 0.526 0.471 0.587
1958 910099 658405 1258012 205277 185529 227128 769313 0.527 0.473 0.588
1959 1336878 972808 1837199 436850 392031 486792 744607 0.548 0.492 0.611
1960 1515374 1104720 2078680 388901 347505 435229 622042 0.536 0.479 0.598
1961 1564632 1140069 2147304 391163 351818 434908 783221 0.625 0.562 0.695
1962 1222542 886913 1685181 319379 288351 353745 909266 0.735 0.661 0.817
1963 922958 663816 1283264 219734 197517 244450 776337 0.808 0.723 0.904
1964 469715 334975 658652 206135 183712 231295 437695 0.667 0.596 0.745
1965 878943 630854 1224594 111898 99164 126266 444930 0.584 0.519 0.657
1966 1910570 1384968 2635640 123041 110228 137343 483711 0.551 0.49 0.621
1967 1348408 977043 1860925 129787 116124 145057 572605 0.554 0.493 0.623
1968 182521 130552 255178 227063 207186 248848 1074084 0.604 0.542 0.673
1969 111134 79219 155905 150684 135789 167212 1197226 0.714 0.642 0.794
1970 211139 151475 294304 243714 220171 269775 933246 0.7 0.628 0.779
1971 408239 294295 566301 331478 297180 369735 689048 0.646 0.579 0.722
1972 1087470 793402 1490533 354709 314712 399788 565254 0.654 0.585 0.732
1973 1669448 1224135 2276755 337591 293920 387752 792685 0.629 0.563 0.703
1974 572374 423253 774035 160204 137179 187094 1102433 0.622 0.556 0.694
1975 622104 458343 844376 133423 119720 148695 829377 0.661 0.594 0.736
1976 591809 433337 808234 166210 150765 183237 867463 0.704 0.633 0.783
1977 372322 273445 506954 336974 302151 375811 905301 0.808 0.728 0.897
1978 621631 456277 846908 230843 202431 263243 698715 0.848 0.763 0.943
1979 197868 143512 272810 183127 158602 211445 440538 0.767 0.688 0.854
1980 128605 96073 172152 110022 96687 125196 380434 0.756 0.679 0.842
1981 142060 109021 185112 162351 145464 181198 399038 0.775 0.695 0.863
1982 183384 142618 235803 321003 288580 357069 363730 0.778 0.699 0.866
1983 145096 113100 186143 306167 274184 341881 289992 0.804 0.723 0.893
1984 447181 353147 566253 236803 213878 262185 277651 0.861 0.774 0.958
1985 541580 437571 670311 194767 175961 215584 307920 0.826 0.742 0.921
1986 1506227 1205541 1881910 166145 150942 182879 430113 0.863 0.774 0.962
1987 368179 291548 464952 117029 106419 128697 523071 0.891 0.799 0.994
1988 335344 266491 421986 195795 177098 216466 434939 0.806 0.714 0.909
1989 160217 128372 199963 239606 215075 266937 332481 0.624 0.548 0.71
1990 132907 105065 168129 300828 265377 341014 212000 0.429 0.372 0.496
1991 293372 235853 364919 645219 575141 723836 319158 0.414 0.363 0.472
1992 724353 588178 892055 820682 738128 912469 513234 0.484 0.432 0.542
1993 1053301 855890 1296245 720302 651777 796031 581611 0.584 0.526 0.65
1994 794345 639600 986528 584525 533815 640054 771086 0.743 0.667 0.827
1995 556253 446755 692589 538696 493618 587889 739999 0.77 0.693 0.856
1996 412512 330365 515084 551815 501489 607192 732228 0.796 0.715 0.886
1997 807781 652641 999800 547964 492539 609626 762403 0.927 0.838 1.026
1998 1106974 892071 1373649 385808 345635 430651 592624 0.935 0.845 1.034
1999 646859 518647 806765 281546 250799 316064 484910 0.924 0.835 1.021
2000 784603 631820 974331 257827 234513 283459 414868 0.839 0.755 0.932
2001 607336 489340 753786 383797 348420 422767 426471 0.742 0.664 0.83
2002 379231 305683 470473 523968 475706 577126 535045 0.688 0.616 0.768
2003 794178 641718 982858 568153 516824 624581 551990 0.647 0.579 0.723
2004 247242 202171 302361 660531 602467 724191 606445 0.7 0.628 0.78
2005 671151 552952 814617 580180 529594 635598 641276 0.709 0.636 0.791
2006 507467 418089 615951 581918 531445 637184 537642 0.612 0.545 0.687
2007 1131299 929750 1376538 638030 579424 702564 486883 0.462 0.41 0.521
2008 943286 773726 1150003 696863 632991 767179 464171 0.377 0.332 0.427
2009 552235 451193 675903 984028 896832 1079701 523430 0.324 0.285 0.369
2010 197303 157493 247175 1203887 1097952 1320043 609983 0.308 0.271 0.349
2011 346208 278973 429648 1733390 1578225 1903810 719830 0.317 0.278 0.361
2012 489966 399609 600754 1940936 1765285 2134065 727663 0.301 0.266 0.342
2013 447737 363063 552158 2207102 2005271 2429247 966209 0.329 0.292 0.37
2014 865508 699785 1070477 2070400 1880935 2278949 986449 0.347 0.31 0.39
2015 448837 365853 550642 1647624 1497634 1812636 864384 0.344 0.307 0.384
2016 278194 224778 344303 1298178 1185118 1422024 849422 0.364 0.324 0.407
2017 755007 619892 919573 1334847 1229245 1449521 868276 0.398 0.355 0.446
2018 497403 397347 622654 1197991 1101372 1303086 778627 0.416 0.371 0.467
2019 640744 518812 791332 1136354 1038571 1243343 692609 0.433 0.387 0.485
2020 526991 427367 649839 902033 823233 988376 692903 0.488 0.438 0.545
2021 364959 294092 452903 762061 696975 833225 767284 0.586 0.525 0.653
2022 189589 149457 240497 638202 580840 701227 719211 0.619 0.553 0.692
2023 235706 188284 295071 659627 595608 730527 582552 0.62 0.549 0.699
2024 618991 490921 780472 500725 443906 564817 453040 0.591 0.51 0.685
2025 374318 283888 493553 351746 297048 416516 329468 0.548 0.447 0.672
2026 243000*     338014 259594 440124        

1.11 - Summary of the assessment

Table 8 . Cod in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Assessment summary. High and low refer to 95% confidence bounds.

* Recruitment model estimate.

1.12 - References

Howell et al. 2026. Joint Russian Norwegian Arctic Fisheries Working Group (JRN-AFWG) Report 2026. IMR-VNIRO 2026-5

ICES. 2003. Report of the Study Group on Biological Reference Points for Northeast Arctic Cod, 13–17 January 2003, Svanhovd, Norway. ICES CM 2003/ACFM:11. 39 pp.

ICES. 2016. Report of the second Workshop on Management Plan Evaluation on Northeast Arctic cod and haddock and Barents Sea capelin (WKNEAMP-2) , 25-28 January 2016, Kirkenes, Norway. ICES CM 2016/ACOM:47, 76 pp.

ICES. 2017. Report of the Arctic Fisheries Working Group (AFWG), 19–25 April 2017, ICES HQ, Copenhagen, Denmark. ICES CM 2017/ACOM:06. 493 pp.

ICES. 2021. Benchmark Workshop for Barents Sea and Faroese Stocks (WKBARFAR 2021).

ICES Scientific Reports. 3:21. 205 pp. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.7920

ICES. 2026. Arctic Fisheries Working Group (AFWG). ICES Scientific Reports.