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Advice on fishing opportunities for beaked redfish in 2027 in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic)

Author(s): Joint Russian-Norwegian Working Group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG)

Report series: IMR-VNIRO 2026-3 Published: 26.06.2026 Project No.: 15565
Approved by: Research Director(s): Geir Huse Program leader(s): Maria Fossheim External: Research Director Oleg Bulatov (VNIRO)

1 - Stock Name: Beaked Redfish (ICES subareas 1 and 2)

 

1.1 - Advice on fishing opportunities

The Joint Russian–Norwegian Working Group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG) advises that when the status quo F approach is applied, catches in 2027 should be no more than 67 090 tonnes.

1.2 - Stock development over time

Fishing pressure on the stock is below FMSY19+ and spawning-stock size is above Bpa and above Blim.

 

Figure 1: Beaked redfish in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Catch, recruitment, F, SSB and TSB (total stock biomass, age 2+) with 95% confidence levels. The biomass reference points relate to SSB.
Figure 1: Beaked redfish in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Catch, recruitment, F, SSB and TSB (total stock biomass, age 2+) with 95% confidence levels. The biomass reference points relate to SSB.
Variable Value Notes
Fages 19+ (2026) 0.065 Fsq = F2025. From assessment.
SSB (2027) 1 001 840 Short-term forecast.
Rage 2 (2026–2028) — Recruits in the intermediate year do not enter the fishery or the SSB in the forecast.
Total catch (2026) 66 475 Short-term forecast corresponding to Fsq in 2026.

1.3 - Catch scenarios

Table 1: Beaked redfish in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Assumptions made for the interim year and in the forecast. SSB in tonnes, catch in tonnes, and recruitment in thousands.
Basis Total catch (2027) Fages 19+ (2027) SSB (2028) % SSB change* % TAC change** % Advice change***
Advice basis            
F2027 = F2026 67 090 0.065 1 021 893 2.0 -3.0 -3.0
Other scenarios            
F = 0 0 0.000 1 081 170 7.9 -100.0 -100.0
Table 2: Beaked redfish in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Annual catch scenarios for 2027. All weights are in tonnes.

*SSB 2028 relative to SSB 2027 (1 001 840 tonnes).

**Catch 2027 relative to TAC set by Norway and Russia for 2026 (69 177 tonnes).

***Advice value for 2027 relative to the advice value for 2026 (69 177 tonnes).

Advice basis Status quo F.
Management plan There is no agreed management plan for this stock. Long-term management plan options have been evaluated by ICES (ICES, 2018a).

1.4 - Basis of the advice

Table 3: Beaked redfish in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). The basis of the advice.

1.5 - Quality of the assessment

The stock was last benchmarked in 2018 , and there is a current process for assessment revision, with a benchmark planned to be conducted during spring 2027. As such, the aim is to provide future advice (for the years 2028 onwards) based on a revised assessment model.

The choice of a scaling coefficient for the Norwegian–Russian ecosystem survey is a source of potential bias of up to 50% in the stock estimate, but the advice is robust to this uncertainty.

Data from the pelagic survey in the Norwegian Sea (WGIDEEPS) was reviewed in the previous benchmark assessment, and the survey is now included in the assessment model as age compositions. The handling of survey data will be revised at the forthcoming benchmark.

Age determination is lacking for some surveys and catches in recent years. To account for the lack of catch-at-age data in some years, a procedure using length distribution and a time-averaged age–length key was applied.

To avoid spurious variations in SSB caused by limited sample size in the weight-at-age of the 19+ group, a fixed weight-at-age function (i.e., common across years) was adopted for the assessment model during the Arctic Fisheries Working Group (AFWG) meeting in 2018 (ICES 2018b). The 2024 assessment similarly changed the maturity ogive to be time-invariant, resulting in smoother SSB development than in earlier assessments.

 

Figure 2: Beaked redfish in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Historical assessment results.
Figure 2: Beaked redfish in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Historical assessment results.

1.6 - Issues relevant for the advice

This stock assessment has been conducted by the Joint Russian-Norwegian Arctic Fisheries Working Group (JRN-AFWG) , consisting of scientists from VNIRO (Russia) and IMR (Norway) , since 2022 (Howell et al., 2026).

This advice has been conducted outside ICES and should not be considered as ICES advice. However, the assessment has been conducted following the previous procedures and based on the methodology agreed at the ICES benchmark in 2018 (ICES, 2018c).

There has been a significant change in the selectivity, with the fraction of the catch in the 19+ age class increasing in recent years (since 2017). Any evaluation of an FMSY or Fpa value is conditional on the Fbar and selectivities used in the evaluation. As a result of changing selectivity, applying the same target Fbar will reduce the catch as a fraction of the fishable stock. Given that the catch is close to advice, and that SSB is relatively stable, the working group proposes F19+ status quo as an approximation to maintain the same overall fraction of the stock being caught.

The status quo approach stabilizes the advice despite the instability in estimated stock size and fishing mortality.

Long-term management plan options have been proposed by Norway and Russia and evaluated by ICES (ICES, 2018a). The highest fishing mortality of those tested during the MSE evaluations (ICES, 2018a) that was found to be precautionary was F19+ = 0.06. The present advice is above F19+ ​​​​​​ = 0.06 due to the selectivity issues mentioned above.

In 2014, Norway and Russia agreed on a distribution of quotas between countries and jurisdiction areas, where a proportion (5.9%) of the quota was set aside for fishery in the international area in the Norwegian Sea, which is managed by NEAFC.  In 2024 all contracting parties in NEAFC accepted this distribution of the quota.

Bycatch of the endangered golden redfish (Sebastes norvegicus) should be kept at a minimum to allow for rebuilding of that stock.

1.7 - Reference points

Framework Reference point Value Technical basis Source
MSY approach MSY Btrigger 315 000 t Bpa ICES (2018a)
FMSY 0.084 F0.1 ICES (2018a)
Precautionary approach Blim 227 000 t Bloss (SSB in 1992) ICES (2018a)
Bpa 315 000 t Blim × e(1.645 × 0.2) ICES (2018a)
Flim — — —
Fpa — — —
Management plan SSBmgt — — —
Fmgt — — —
Table 4: Beaked redfish in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Reference points, values, and their technical basis.
ICES stock data category 1
Assessment type Statistical catch-at-age model
Input data Commercial catches: international landings (tonnes), age frequencies and weight-at-age from catch sampling of the pelagic and demersal fisheries and from the survey; survey indices: numbers-at-age from BS-NoRu-Q1-Btr, Eco-NoRu-Q3-Btr, Ru-Q4-Btr; proportion-at-age from deep pelagic ecosystem survey (WGIDEEPS); annual maturity data from BS-NoRu-Q1-Btr, Eco-NoRu-Q3-Btr, and commercial catch sampling; natural mortalities were fixed at 0.05.
Discards and bycatch Discarding and bycatch are assumed negligible.
Other information Last benchmark was in January 2018 (WKREDFISH; ICES, 2018c). Proposed management plans were evaluated in 2018 (WKREBMSE; ICES, 2018a). Maturity ogive was changed to time-invariant in the 2024 assessment.
Working group Joint Russian–Norwegian Arctic Fisheries Working Group (JRN-AFWG)

1.8 - Basis of the assessment

Table 5: Beaked redfish in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Basis of the assessment and advice.
Year Official advice Predicted catch corresponding to advice Agreed TAC Catches
1987 Precautionary TAC 70 000* 85 000 10 518
1988 F = F0.1; TAC 11 000   15 586
1989 Status quo F; TAC 12 000   23 512
1990 Status quo F; TAC 18 000   35 070
1991 F at Fmed; TAC 12 000   48 727
1992 If required precautionary TAC 22 000   15 590
1993 If required precautionary TAC 18 000 18 000 12 814
1994 If required precautionary TAC     12 721
1995 Lowest possible F     10 284
1996 Catch at lowest possible level     8 075
1997 Catch at lowest possible level     8 598
1998 No directed fishery; reduce bycatch     14 044
1999 No directed fishery; reduce bycatch     11 209
2000 No directed fishery; bycatch at lowest possible level     10 076
2001 No directed fishery; bycatch at lowest possible level     18 418
2002 No directed fishery; bycatch at lowest possible level     6 993
2003 No directed fishery; bycatch at lowest possible level     2 520
2004 No directed trawl fishery and low bycatch limits     5 493**
2005 No directed trawl fishery and low bycatch limits     8 465**
2006 No directed trawl fishery and low bycatch limits     33 261**
2007 No directed trawl fishery and low bycatch limits   15 500^ 20 218**
2008 Protection of juveniles; no directed trawl fishery and low bycatch limits   14 500^ 13 096**
2009 Protection of juveniles; no directed trawl fishery and low bycatch limits   10 500^ 10 246**
2010 Protection of juveniles; no directed trawl fishery and low bycatch limits   8 600^ 11 923**
2011 Protection of juveniles; no directed trawl fishery and low bycatch limits   7 900^ 12 962**
2012 Protection of juveniles; no directed fishery and low bycatch limits   7 500^ 11 060**
2013 F0.1 < 47 000 19 500^ 9 389**
2014 Status quo catch < 24 000 36 800^^ 18 427**
2015 Precautionary approach < 30 000 30 000# 25 570
2016 Precautionary approach < 30 000 30 000# 34 753
2017 Precautionary approach < 30 000 30 000# 30 782
2018 Precautionary approach < 32 658 32 658# 38 045
2019 Precautionary approach < 53 757 53 757# 45 640
2020 Precautionary approach < 55 860 55 860# 53 656
2021 Precautionary approach < 66 158 66 158# 63 479
2022 Precautionary approach < 67 210 67 210# 62 194
2023 Status quo F < 66 779 66 779# 60 385
2024 Status quo F < 70 164 70 164# 66 984
2025 Status quo F < 67 191 67 191# 66 220
2026 Status quo F < 69 177 69 177#  
2027 Status quo F < 67 090    

1.9 - History of the advice, catch and management

Table 6: Beaked redfish in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). History of the advice, catch, and management. Since 2022, catch compilation, assessment, and advice has been carried out by the Joint Russian-Norwegian Arctic Fisheries working group (JRN-AFWG). Prior to 2022, this work was conducted by ICES. All weights are in tonnes.

* Includes both Sebastes mentella and S.norvegicus.

** Includes the pelagic catches in the Norwegian Sea outside the EEZ.

^ TAC set by the North-East Atlantic Fisheries Commission (NEAFC) for an Olympic fishery in international waters.

^^ Sum of TAC set by NEAFC in international waters and by Norway in the Norwegian Economic Zone.

# TAC set jointly by Norway and Russia.

Year Inside the NEAFC RA (tonnes) Outside NEAFC RA (tonnes) Total catches (tonnes) Proportion inside the NEAFC RA (%)
2021 2 872 60 607 63 479 4.5%
2022 2 680 59 514 62 194 4.3%
2023 5 60 380 60 385 0.01%
2024 1 693 65 291 66 984 2.5%
2025 3 229 62 991 66 220 4.9%

1.10 - History of catch and landings

Table 7: Beaked redfish in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Catches inside and outside the NEAFC Regulatory Area (RA) as estimated by JRN-AFWG.

 

Year Faroe Islands France Germany Greenland Iceland Norway Poland Portugal Russia Spain UK* Others Total
1992 23 12 0 0 0 10 751 0 972 3 577 14 241 0 15 590
1993 13 50 35 1 0 5 182 0 963 6 260 5 293 12 12 814
1994 4 74 18 1 0 6 511 0 895 5 021 30 136 31 12 721
1995 3 16 176 2 0 2 646 0 927 6 346 67 97 4 10 284
1996 4 75 119 3 0 6 053 0 467 925 328 99 2 8 075
1997 4 37 81 16 0 4 657 1 474 2 972 272 78 6 8 598
1998 20 73 100 14 0 9 733 13 125 3 646 177 134 9 14 044
1999 73 26 202 50 0 7 884 6 65 2 731 29 140 3 11 209
2000 50 12 62 29 48 6 021 2 115 3 519 87 130 1 10 076
2001 74 16 198 17 3 13 937 5 179 3 775 90 120 4 18 418
2002 75 58 99 18 41 2 151 8 242 3 904 190 188 19 6 993
2003 64 22 32 8 5 1 210 7 44 952 47 124 5 2 520
2004 588 13 10 4 10 1 375 42 235 2 879 257 76 4 5 493
2005 1 147 46 33 39 4 1 759 0 140 5 023 163 95 16 8 465
2006 3 808 215 2 483 63 2 513 4 710 2 496 1 804 11 413 710 1 027 2 019 33 261
2007 2 197 234 520 29 1 587 3 209 1 081 1 483 5 660 2 181 202 1 835 20 218
2008 1 849 187 16 25 9 2 220 8 713 7 117 463 83 406 13 096
2009 1 343 15 42 0 33 2 677 338 806 3 843 177 80 892 10 246
2010 979 175 21 12 2 2 064 0 293 6 414 1 184 79 700 11 923
2011 984 175 835 0 2 2 471 11 613 5 037 1 678 55 1 101 12 962
2012 259 0 517 0 36 2 115 318 1 038 4 101 1 780 0 896 11 060
2013 697 0 80 21 1 1 750 84 1 078 3 677 1 459 0 542 9 389
2014 743 215 446 15 0 13 149 103 505 1 704 1 162 0 385 18 427
2015 657 49 242 48 3 19 433 5 678 1 142 2 529 52 732 25 570
2016 502 134 493 74 24 18 190 208 1 066 8 419 3 213 122 2 308 34 753
2017 443 45 763 66 3 17 077 102 1 060 6 593 2 838 436 1 356 30 782
2018 425 67 2 473 82 10 18 593 275 699 10 497 2 457 63 2 404 38 045
2019 156 370 1 599 615 10 23 844 471 1 422 13 444 2 222 590 897 45 640
2020 149 163 1 807 67 8 32 949 4 889 13 874 744 437 2 565 53 656
2021 290 218 1 166 85 6 43 794 2 381 14 887 615 655 1 380 63 479
2022 235 221 1 758 39 77 40 715 0 464 16 717 278 114 1 576 62 194
2023 154 128 626 109 10 44 542 0 358 13 976 295 152 35 60 385
2024** 2 037 131 481 150 73 47 220 0 466 16 235 104 75 12 66 984
2025** 1 865 87 1 895 0 0 46 292 0 387 15 494 140 51 9 66 220

Table 8: Beaked redfish in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). History of commercial landings by country. Catch information from 2021 and onwards has been provided by the Joint Russian-Norwegian Arctic Fisheries working group (JRN-AFWG). Prior to 2021, this work was conducted by ICES. All weights are in tonnes.

* Includes UK (E&W) since 2000.

** Provisional figures.

  Recruitment Spawning stock biomass Total Fishable Catches Fishing mortality
Year R age 2 (thousands) Low (thousands) High (thousands) SSB (tonnes) Low (tonnes) High (tonnes) Biomass ages 2+ (tonnes) Biomass ages 6+ (tonnes) (tonnes) F19+ Low 95% High 95%
1992 449 985 361 058 560 813 325 555 250 475 423 139 576 432 535 665 15 590 0.041 0.030 0.056
1993 307 973 249 046 380 844 344 178 266 880 443 865 623 944 571 330 12 814 0.031 0.023 0.041
1994 223 397 180 948 275 806 367 067 286 705 469 954 684 237 631 230 12 721 0.027 0.021 0.036
1995 209 499 170 388 257 588 393 609 309 627 500 372 751 923 703 726 10 284 0.020 0.016 0.026
1996 161 246 131 190 198 187 426 576 338 444 537 659 820 771 786 731 8 075 0.014 0.011 0.018
1997 115 657 94 074 142 190 466 640 374 081 582 100 888 027 862 204 8 598 0.014 0.011 0.017
1998 59 663 48 332 73 650 512 771 415 543 632 749 950 439 927 671 14 044 0.019 0.015 0.023
1999 48 428 39 226 59 788 565 230 462 526 690 739 1 001 122 984 137 11 209 0.014 0.011 0.018
2000 37 643 30 514 46 437 623 215 514 817 754 438 1 044 783 1 033 029 10 076 0.011 0.009 0.014
2001 32 874 26 273 41 132 688 394 573 260 826 651 1 081 402 1 074 742 18 418 0.020 0.016 0.024
2002 42 664 34 071 53 424 740 597 619 778 884 968 1 097 817 1 092 342 6 993 0.007 0.006 0.009
2003 51 719 41 235 64 869 795 006 668 925 944 851 1 116 053 1 111 419 2 520 0.003 0.002 0.003
2004 71 766 57 678 89 296 845 795 715 170 1 000 279 1 130 539 1 125 879 5 493 0.005 0.004 0.007
2005 122 429 99 107 151 239 889 803 755 000 1 048 675 1 137 844 1 131 664 8 465 0.008 0.007 0.010
2006 227 760 184 881 280 583 928 864 789 898 1 092 278 1 141 554 1 133 025 33 261 0.043 0.033 0.057
2007 335 343 270 393 415 894 943 461 800 373 1 112 130 1 122 157 1 110 283 20 218 0.025 0.019 0.033
2008 352 561 283 297 438 761 959 766 813 763 1 131 963 1 117 215 1 098 047 13 096 0.015 0.011 0.020
2009 338 723 271 623 422 399 971 885 824 518 1 145 591 1 124 463 1 094 214 10 246 0.011 0.008 0.015
2010 429 216 340 668 540 781 968 017 821 877 1 140 142 1 137 306 1 097 390 11 923 0.013 0.010 0.018
2011 475 638 373 767 605 273 952 454 808 903 1 121 479 1 153 356 1 110 971 12 962 0.014 0.011 0.020
2012 394 137 309 171 502 452 934 886 794 152 1 100 561 1 175 835 1 132 508 11 060 0.013 0.009 0.018
2013 232 876 179 781 301 650 918 307 780 562 1 080 359 1 210 078 1 159 937 9 389 0.011 0.008 0.016
2014 270 130 208 474 350 022 906 631 771 582 1 065 319 1 254 970 1 204 452 18 427 0.022 0.014 0.035
2015 254 420 192 550 336 172 892 458 759 617 1 048 530 1 293 213 1 252 558 25 570 0.031 0.024 0.042
2016 268 473 197 900 364 215 883 084 751 334 1 037 938 1 321 371 1 293 417 34 753 0.043 0.032 0.058
2017 286 689 208 293 394 591 876 877 745 042 1 032 040 1 343 174 1 312 041 30 782 0.041 0.030 0.056
2018 280 767 200 376 393 410 885 689 752 319 1 042 703 1 369 900 1 339 468 38 045 0.052 0.037 0.071
2019 307 214 212 023 445 143 898 883 762 634 1 059 473 1 390 610 1 358 459 45 640 0.061 0.047 0.080
2020 452 081 302 615 675 371 914 342 774 144 1 079 930 1 406 874 1 372 214 53 656 0.073 0.055 0.098
2021 722 781 455 478 1 146 955 926 340 781 513 1 098 005 1 418 616 1 380 640 63 479 0.083 0.062 0.111
2022 630 737 384 015 1 035 971 934 034 784 175 1 112 530 1 426 728 1 380 625 62 194 0.074 0.056 0.098
2023 467 043 263 132 828 971 947 948 792 294 1 134 181 1 449 059 1 372 499 60 385 0.063 0.049 0.081
2024 365 437 182 027 733 652 967 323 805 371 1 161 840 1 494 664 1 400 253 66 984 0.064 0.051 0.081
2025 317 063 * 129 594 775 724 978 795 811 374 1 180 762 1 536 941 1 455 087 66 220 0.065 0.050 0.083
2026 208 687 *     987 261     1 577 263          

1.11 - Summary of the assessment

Table 9: Beaked redfish in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Assessment summary. Low and high refer to 95% confidence bounds.

* Predicted value based on regression between survey indices and recruitment time series.

1.12 - References

Howell et al. 2026. Joint Russian Norwegian Arctic Fisheries Working Group (JRN-AFWG) Report 2026. IMR-VNIRO 2026-5

ICES (2018a). Arctic fisheries working group (AFWG). Copenhagen: ICES CM 2018/ACOM:06.

ICES (2018b). Working group on Redfish Management Strategy Evaluations (WKREBMSE). Copenhagen: ICES CM 2018/ACOM:35.

ICES (2018c). Workshop on Beaked Redfish (WKREDFISH). Copenhagen: ICES CM 2018/ACOM:36.