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Advice on fishing opportunities for Greenland halibut in 2027 and 2028 in ICES subareas 1 and 2

Author(s): Joint Russian-Norwegian Working Group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN- AFWG)

Report series: IMR-VNIRO 2026-4 Published: 26.06.2026 Project No.: 15565
Approved by: Research Director(s): Geir Huse Program leader(s): Maria Fossheim External: Research Director Oleg Bulatov (VNIRO)

1 - Stock Name: Greenland halibut in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic)

 

1.1 - Advice on fishing opportunities

The Joint Russian-Norwegian Working Group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG) advises that when the MSY approach is applied, catches in 2027 should be no more than 19610 tonnes, and catches in 2028 should be no more than 19914 tonnes.

1.2 - Stock development over time

The female spawning stock biomass (SSB) is declining but currently above Bpa. Total harvestable biomass (≥ 45 cm, HSB) has been in rapid decline in recent years, although the decline now appears to stabilise. The harvest rate (HR) has increased from 2010-2023, but a subsequent quota reduction has led to a slight decline after 2023. The harvest rate currently remains slightly above HRMSY .

 

Figure 2 . Greenland halibut in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Historical assessment results. Black lines; 2026 assessment. Blue lines; 2024 assessment. Yellow lines; 2023 assessment. Reference points refer to the 2023 assessment.
Figure 1 . Greenland halibut in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). From top left to bottom right: catches, recruitment at age 2, harvest rate for fish ≥ 45 cm with estimated HRMSY, and female SSB as well as HSB (harvestable stock biomass defined as ≥ 45 cm fish). The biomass reference points relate to female SSB.

 

Variable Value Notes
Harvest rate ≥ 45 cm (202 6 ) 0. 148 Based on expected catch in 2026.
Biomass ≥ 45 cm (2027) 1 41451 Beginning of 2027.
Female SSB (2027) 52635 Beginning of 2027.
Recruitment age 1 (2026 -2028) 54547 Average 1990-2017 recruitment. Does not influence short-term forecast.
Expected catch (2026) 20750 TAC for 2026 plus mean catch above TAC 2020-2025 (1750 t).

1.3 - Catch scenarios

Table 1 . Greenland halibut in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Assumptions made for the interim year and values in the forecast. Biomasses and catch in tonnes, and recruitment in thousands.
Basis Total catch (202 7 ) HR (202 7 ) SSB (202 8 ) % SSB change * % TAC change ** % Advice change ***
Advice basis
HRMSY 19610 0.139 51979 -1.2 3.2 31.7
Other scenarios
HR=0 0 0 61249 16.4 -100 -100
HRMSY + expected catch over TAC^ 21360 0.151 51152 -2.8 12.4 43.4
Table 2 . Greenland halibut in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Annual catch scenarios for 2027. All weights are in tonnes. The advice basis using the MSY approach, and two other scenarios are listed in the first column. Columns thereafter: total allowable catch (TAC), harvest rate (HR) for ≥ 45 cm fish, female spawning stock biomass (SSB) in the beginning of 2028.

* SSB start of 2028 relative to start of 2027.

** Advice value for 2027 relative to the TAC value in 2026 (19000 tonnes).

*** Advice value for 202 7 relative to the advice value for 202 6 (14891 tonnes) .

^ Assuming that TAC for 2027 is set equal to advice, but accounting for the 2020-2025 average catch over TAC (1750 tonnes).

The advice for 2027 and 2028 is higher than the advice for 2025 and 2026 partly due to good year classes entering the fishable biomass and a general increase in biomass in the EggaN survey. In addition, the retrospective revision has moved the SSB above Bpa and therefore the applied HR is higher than previously.

Basis Total catch (2028) HR (2028) SSB (2029) % SSB change * % TAC change ** % Advice change ***
Advice basis
HRMSY 19914 0.139 51828 -1.5 4.8 33.7
Other scenarios
HR=0 0 0 71062 35 -100 -100
HRMSY + expected catch over TAC^ 21664 0.153 50154 -4.7 14.0 45.5
Table 3 . Greenland halibut in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Annual catch scenarios for 2028. All weights are in tonnes. The advice basis using MSY approach, and two other scenarios are listed in the first column. Columns thereafter: total allowable catch (TAC), harvest rate (HR) for ≥ 45 cm fish, female spawning stock biomass (SSB) in the beginning of 2029.

* SSB start of 2029 relative to start of 2027, i.e the cumulative change over the 2-year advice period.

** Advice value for 2028 relative to the TAC value in 2026 (19000 tonnes).

*** Advice value for 202 8 relative to the advice value for 202 6 (14891 tonnes) .

^ Assuming that TAC for 2028 is set equal to advice, but accounting for the 2020-2025 average catch over TAC (1750 tonnes).

Advice basis MSY
Management plan There is no agreed precautionary management plan for Greenland halibut in this area.

1.4 - Basis of the advice

Table 4 . Greenland halibut in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). The basis of the advice.

1.5 - Quality of the assessment

Peaks in recruitment were most likely exaggerated in the previous assessment model (ICES, 2023), while in the present model they are probably underestimated. There is evidence for good recruitment in recent years. However, the magnitude of this recruitment is currently poorly constrained by the data and should be considered uncertain.

 

igure 1 . Greenland halibut in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). From top left to bottom right: catches, recruitment at age 2, harvest rate for fish ≥ 45 cm with estimated HRMSY, and female SSB as well as HSB (harvestable stock biomass defined as ≥ 45 cm fish). The biomass reference points relate to female SSB.
Figure 2 . Greenland halibut in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Historical assessment results. Black lines; 2026 assessment. Blue lines; 2024 assessment. Yellow lines; 2023 assessment. Reference points refer to the 2023 assessment.

 

1.6 - Issues relevant for the advice

This stock assessment has been conducted by the Joint Russian-Norwegian Arctic Fisheries Working Group (JRN-AFWF) consisting of scientists from VNIRO (Russia) and IMR (Norway) since 2022 (Howell et al., 2026).

This advice has been conducted outside ICES and should not be considered as ICES advice. However, this assessment and advice have been produced following the methodology agreed at the ICES benchmark in 2023 (ICES, 2023).

Due to the long lifespan and the key survey being run every second year, the advice is given on a two-year basis.

The higher bycatch rates of Greenland halibut that have recently been observed in the Norwegian cod and haddock fisheries may have partly been caused by shifting distribution of those fisheries rather than Greenland halibut stock trends. Catch per unit effort of the Russian target Greenland halibut fishery along the continental slope and bycatches in the Barents Sea do not show obvious downward trends during the last decade.

Greenland halibut is a long-lived species which requires low fishing pressure – the TSB has stabilized but the female SSB is currently declining and close to Bpa . Maintaining fisheries in line with advice should allow recent incoming recruitment to lead to an increase in stock size. However, given the considerable uncertainty associated with the survey indices, this increase is uncertain and future quotas over advice could imperil any stock increase.

Additional exploratory calculations were conducted using a TISVPA model under alternative natural mortality assumptions (Howell et al., 2026). These runs are considered exploratory due to uncertainties in the age data and limited tuning information, and this model is neither reviewed nor approved as a basis of advice by JRN-AFWG. However, the resulting MSY values (of 20.9kt to 22.2kt depending on mortality assumptions) are at similar levels to those from the Gadget assessment model, supporting the overall conclusions presented here.

The Greenland halibut population extends past the areas covered by the surveys used in the assessment, and therefore the tuning data does not cover the entire distribution.

Note that the advice presented here covers both the areas managed by the JNRFC and catches taken from the assessed stock outside these areas. Therefore, the advice presented here is for the total catch and not just that taken within the areas managed by the JNRFC.

Framework Reference point Value Technical basis Source
MSY approach MSY  19142 tonnes Maximum sustainable yield (long term) (ICES, 2023; Howell et al. 2023)
HRMSY 0.139 HR ( ≥ 45cm) leading to MSY (ICES, 2023); Howell et al. 2023)
Precautionary approach Blim 33391 tonnes Lowest modelled mature female sub-stock biomass (ICES, 2023; Howell et al. 2023)
B pa 46747 tonnes Blim x 1.4 (female SSB) (ICES, 2023; Howell et al. 2023)
Btrigger 46747 tonnes Bpa (female SSB) (ICES, 2023; Howell et al. 2023)
HRlim 0.165 HR ( ≥ 45cm) leading to P(SSB<B lim )=0.5 (ICES, 2023; Howell et al. 2023)
HRpa 0.145 HR( ≥ 45cm), when the ICES Advice Rule is applied, leading to P(SSB < Blim) = 0.05 (ICES, 2023; Howell et al. 2023)

1.7 - Reference points

Table 5 . Greenland halibut in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Reference points, values, and their technical basis.
ICES stock data category 1
Assessment type Age–length-structured (Gadget model).
Input data Trends in biomass for five survey indices from three surveys: the Norwegian slope survey (G1165), the Russian autumn bottom trawl survey at the slope (G5348), and three survey indices from the Ecosystem survey (10-17 cm, 18-27 cm and 28-65 cm). Length distributions from these three surveys and from the Joint winter survey (A6996) and the Norwegian slope survey in spring (G5678); catch-in-tonnes from five aggregated commercial fleets (Russian, trawl and minor gears; Russian, gillnet and longline; Norwegian, trawl and minor gears; Norwegian, gillnet and longline; 3rd countries); age and maturity-at-length data from the Norwegian slope survey (G1165).
Discards and bycatch Not included, considered negligible.
Other information Last benchmark in February 2023 (ICES, 2023).
Working group Joint Russian-Norwegian working group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG).

1.8 - Basis of the assessment

Table 6 . Greenland halibut in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Basis of the assessment and advice.

1.9 - History of the advice, catch, and management

Year Official a dvice Predicted catch corresponding to advice Agreed TAC – Norway/JNRFC TAC to Norway–UK/EU zone^ in ICES subareas 2 and 6 combined ^ ^ Official catches
1987 Precautionary TAC - -   18744
1988 No decrease in SSB 19000 -   19322
1989 F = F(87); TAC 21000 -   18353
1990 F = F(8 9 ); TAC 15000 -   22555
1991 F at Fmed; TAC; improved expl. pattern 9000 -   33318
1992 Rebuild SSB(1991) 6000 7000*   8603
1993 TAC 7000 7000*   11932
1994 F<0.1 <12000 11000*   9226
1995 No fishing 0 2500**   11734
1996 No fishing 0 2500**   14347
1997 No fishing 0 2500**   9410
1998 No fishing 0 2500**   11893
1999 No fishing 0 2500**   19517
2000 No fishing 0 2500**   14297
2001 Reduce catch to rebuild stock <11000 2500**   16374
2002 Reduce F substantially <11000 2500**   13293
2003 Reduce catch to increase stock <13000 2500**   13446
2004 Do not exceed recent low catches <13000 2500**   18900
2005 Do not exceed recent low catches <13000 2500**   18834
2006 Do not exceed recent low catches <13000 2500**   17876
2007 Reduce catch to increase stock <13000 2500**   15458
2008 Reduce catch to increase stock <13000 2500**   13809
2009 Same advice as previous year <13000 2500**   12982
2010 Same advice as previous year <13000 15000*** 350 15235
2011 Same advice as previous year <13000 15000*** 350 16684
2012 No increase in catches <15000 18000*** 350 20284
2013 No increase in catches <15000 18000*** 824 21982
2014 No new advice, same as for 2013 <15000 18000*** 1000 22611
2015 Same as for 2014 <15000 18000*** 1000 25081
2016 Precautionary approach <19800 22000*** 1100 25385
2017 Same advice as previous year <19800 24000*** 1100 26439
2018 Precautionary approach <23000 27000*** 1100 28600
2019 Same advice as previous year <23000 27000*** 1250 28825
2020 Precautionary approach <23000 27000*** 1250 28573
2021 Same advice as previous year <23000 27000*** 0 28254
2022 Precautionary approach ≤ 19094 25000*** 600 27521
2023 Precautionary approach ≤ 18494 25000*** 700 27126
2024 MSY approach ≤ 15560 21250*** 600 22606
2025 MSY approach ≤ 12431 19000*** 360 20652
2026 MSY approach ≤ 14891 19000*** 400  
2027 MSY approach ≤ 19610      
2028 MSY approach ≤ 19914      
Table 7 . Greenland halibut in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Official advice, agreed TACs, and official catches. Since 2022, catch compilation, assessment, and advice has been carried out by the Joint Russian-Norwegian Arctic Fisheries working group (JRN-AFWG). Prior to 2022, this work was conducted by ICES. All weights are in tonnes.

^ UK after 2020.

^ ^ Part of this TAC is taken in the assessment area.

* Set by Norwegian authorities.

** Set by Norwegian authorities for the non-trawl fishery; allowable bycatch in the trawl fishery is additional to this.

*** Set by the Joint Norwegian-Russian Fisheries Commission (JNRFC).

Year   Denmark   Estonia   Faroe Islands   Germany   France   Greenland   Iceland   Ireland   Latvia   Lithuania   Norway   Poland   Portugal   Russia   Spain   United Kingdom Total  
1984 0 0 0 2165 138 0 0 0 0 0 3540 0 0 15181 0 23 21047
1985 0 0 0 4000 239 0 0 0 0 0 5287 0 0 10237 0 5 19768
1986 0 0 42 2718 13 0 0 0 0 0 7783 0 0 12200 0 12 22768
1987 0 0 0 2024 13 0 0 0 0 0 6893 0 0 9733 0 81 18744
1988 0 0 186 744 67 0 0 0 0 0 8811 0 0 9430 0 84 19322
1989 0 0 67 600 31 0 0 0 0 0 8837 0 0 8812 0 6 18353
1990 0 0 163 954 49 0 0 0 0 0 16615 0 0 4764 0 10 22555
1991 11 2564 314 101 119 0 0 0 0 0 27585 0 0 2490 132 2 33318
1992 0 0 16 13 111 13 0 0 0 0 7668 0 31 718 23 10 8603
1993 2 0 61 22 80 8 56 0 0 30 10379 0 43 1235 0 16 11932
1994 4 0 18 296 55 3 15 5 0 4 8428 0 36 283 1 78 9226
1995 0 0 12 35 174 12 25 2 0 0 9368 0 84 794 1106 122 11734
1996 0 0 2 81 219 123 70 0 0 0 11623 0 79 1576 200 374 14347
1997 0 0 27 56 253 0 62 2 0 0 7661 12 50 1038 157 92 9410
1998 0 0 57 34 67 0 23 2 0 0 8435 31 99 2659 259 227 11893
1999 0 0 94 34 0 38 7 2 0 0 15004 8 49 3823 319 139 19517
2000 0 0 0 15 45 0 16 1 0 0 9083 3 37 4568 375 154 14297
2001 0 0 0 58 122 0 18 1 0 0 10896 2 35 4694 418 130 16374
2002 0 219 0 42 7 22 4 6 0 0 7143 5 14 5584 178 69 13293
2003 0 0 459 18 2 14 0 1 0 0 8215 5 19 4384 230 99 13446
2004 0 0 0 9 0 0 10 0 0 0 13939 1 50 4662 186 43 18900
2005 0 170 0 8 32 0 0 0 0 0 13011 0 23 4883 660 47 18834
2006 0 0 204 8 46 0 8 0 0 196 11118 201 26 6055 2 12 17876
2007 0 0 203 8 40 198 15 0 0 0 8230 200 50 6484 11 19 15458
2008 0 0 663 5 41 0 28 0 0 0 7393 201 46 5294 112 26 13809
2009 0 0 422 19 16 16 15 2 0 0 8446 204 237 3335 202 68 12982
2010 0 0 272 14 102 15 16 0 0 0 7700 3 11 6888 188 26 15235
2011 0 0 538 80 46 4 7 0 0 234 8348 169 21 7053 144 40 16684
2012 0 0 563 40 40 12 13 0 0 0 9331 22 1 10041 186 35 20284
2013 0 0 783 49 168 22 106 1 0 0 10404 30 7 10306 12 92 21980
2014 0 0 887 33 269 24 86 0 0 0 10997 19 0 10061 23 212 22611
2015 0 0 724 33 230 16 98 0 0 0 10874 13 1 12953 25 114 25081
2016 2 353 1078 9 229 18 75 0 0 0 12932 26 19 10561 27 56 25385
2017 0 523 993 21 177 26 10 0 3 72 13741 26 13 10713 36 83 26437
2018 2 574 401 50 150 20 24 0 0 206 14875 27 6 12071 60 134 28600
2019 0 588 350 44 105 23 10 0 0 348 14867 122 8 12196 87 75 28823
2020 1 579 514 73 39 48 19 0 0 261 14526 97 9 12265 96 45 28572
2021 1 382 749 88 137 14 40 0 0 125 14008 14 0 12396 125 177 28256
2022 0 253 1052 94 86 50 27 0 0 136 13800 0 0 11746 163 114 27521
2023 1 98 1026 77 61 11 33 0 84 75 14198 0 0 11317 72 73 27126
2024* 0 172 1062 186 83 16 13 0 69 0 11290 0 44 9581 56 34 22606
2025* 0 96 1568 208 38 59 0 1 61 56 9928 0 54 8440 76 67 20652

1.10 - History of catch and landings

Table 8 . Greenland halibut in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). History of commercial landings by country. Catch information from 2021 and onwards has been provided by the Joint Russian-Norwegian Arctic Fisheries working group (JRN-AFWG). Prior to 2021, this work was conducted by ICES. All weights are in tonnes.

*Provisional figures.

Year Recruitment (age 2) Female SSB Total Biomass Biomass ( ≥45 cm ) Catches Harvest rate
Thousands Tonnes  
1980 36166 80683 218088 180458 12655 0.070
1981 37358 72828 215031 176993 14466 0.082
1982 71407 76322 211014 171869 16580 0.096
1983 6869 76607 205109 164947 21773 0.132
1984 92068 72367 195518 153430 21047 0.137
1985 847 67489 187169 143266 19768 0.138
1986 42214 62781 180650 135147 22768 0.168
1987 61742 56456 171938 125575 18744 0.149
1988 62663 52336 168316 121717 19322 0.159
1989 59090 48256 165400 118252 18353 0.155
1990 82083 45644 165182 116450 22555 0.194
1991 62618 41367 162556 109583 33318 0.304
1992 34899 32233 150437 91637 8603 0.094
1993 38485 34721 163487 100207 11932 0.119
1994 51914 36439 173202 108944 9226 0.085
1995 60234 40166 185521 123064 11734 0.095
1996 47217 43424 195020 136785 14347 0.105
1997 36246 46554 201232 147736 9410 0.064
1998 39425 52726 211470 160459 11893 0.074
1999 50209 58465 218329 167525 19517 0.117
2000 53249 60408 216962 166222 14297 0.086
2001 52794 64664 220427 170690 16374 0.096
2002 57123 67272 221752 172781 13293 0.077
2003 79947 70933 226713 176187 13446 0.076
2004 87095 73980 232734 178039 18900 0.106
2005 86215 73629 235094 174703 18834 0.108
2006 74660 72850 239334 172593 17876 0.104
2007 70776 72567 246072 172710 15458 0.090
2008 64856 73786 256171 177013 13809 0.078
2009 60841 76219 268312 186190 12982 0.070
2010 51563 79236 281005 199882 15235 0.076
2011 52667 82132 290649 213644 16684 0.078
2012 52731 85515 297716 226028 20284 0.090
2013 52058 88172 299918 233376 21982 0.094
2014 49602 90646 299133 237013 22611 0.095
2015 47713 93020 296494 237821 25081 0.105
2016 38412 94180 290077 233920 25385 0.109
2017 33315 94338 282003 227951 26439 0.116
2018 40446 93173 271646 219909 28600 0.130
2019 60816 89902 258525 209145 28825 0.138
2020 70943 85459 245396 197632 28573 0.145
2021 67932 80283 233377 185535 28254 0.152
2022 30304 74418 222251 172400 27521 0.160
2023 67633 68445 212745 158766 27126 0.171
2024 71756 62126 204781 145930 22606 0.155
2025 91671 58116 203033 140286 20652 0.147
2026   55174 204434 140129    

1.11 - Summary of assessment

Table 9 . Greenland halibut in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Assessment model summary.

1.12 - References

Howell, D., Bogstad, B., Chetyrkin, A., Fall, J., Filin, A., Hallfredsson, E. H., et al. (2023). Report of the Joint Russian-Norwegian Working Group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG) 2023. IMR-PINRO 2023-7 Available at: https://www.hi.no/hi/nettrapporter/imr-pinro-en-2023-7.

Howell et al. 2026. Joint Russian Norwegian Arctic Fisheries Working Group (JRN-AFWG) Report 2026. IMR-VNIRO 2026-5

ICES (2023). Benchmark workshop on Greenland halibut and redfish stocks (WKBNORTH). ICES Scientific Reports doi:10.17895/ICES.PUB.22304638.V1.

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