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Advice on fishing opportunities for Northeast arctic haddock in 2024 in ICES subareas 1 and 2

Report series: IMR-PINRO 2023-4 Published: 22.06.2023
Approved by: Research Director(s): Geir Huse Program leader(s): Maria Fossheim

Norsk sammendrag

Stock Name: Northeast Arctic haddock (ICES areas 1 and 2)

Advice on fishing opportunities

The Joint Russian-Norwegian Arctic Fisheries Working Group (JRN-AFWG) advises that when the Joint Norwegian–Russian Fisheries Commission management plan is applied, catches in 2024 should be no more than 127 550 tonnes.

Stock development over time

Fishing pressure on the stock is below Fpa and Flim and close to Fmsy, and the spawning stock biomass is above Bpa and Blim. The spawning stock biomass has been stable in last years, but the total stock biomass is declining.

 

standard figures
Figure 1 Haddock in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Catch, recruitment, F, SSB and TSB (total stock biomass, age 3+) with 95 % confidence levels. The biomass reference points relate to SSB.

 

Catch scenarios

Variable Value Notes
F4–7 (2023) 0.377 TAC constraint
SSB (2024) 189 420  
R age 3 (2023) 157 204 SAM estimates
R age 3 (2024) 371 852 RCT3 estimates
R age 3 (2025) 230 976 RCT3 estimates
Total catch (2023) 170 067 TAC set by 52th session of JRNFC
Table 1 Haddock in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). SSB, catch in tonnes and recruitment in thousands.
Basis Total catch (2024) F4-7 (2024) SSB (2025) % SSB change* % TAC change** % Advice change***
A dvice basis            
Management plan 127 550 0.368 159 292 -16 -25 -25
Other scenarios            
MSY approach: FMSY 122 465 0.350 162 753 -14 -28 -28
F = 0 0 0.000 249 327 32 -100 -100
F = F2023 130 057 0.377 157 591 -17 -24 -24
Fpa 154 413 0.470 141 245 -25 -9 -9
Flim 218 207 0.770 100 344 -47 28 28
Table 2 Haddock in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Annual catch options. All weights are in tonnes.

* SSB 2025 relative to SSB 2024.
** Catch in 2024 relative to TAC in 2023 (170 067 t).
*** Advice for 2024 relative to advice for 2023.

The advice for 2024 is 25% lower than the advice and TAC for 2023 due to a declining stock trend and the application of the 25% TAC change constraint according to the management plan.

Basis of the advice

Advice basis Joint Norwegian-Russian Fisheries Commission management plan.
Management plan The current harvest control rule (HCR) for haddock is as follows (see details in Protocol of the 46 th Session of the Joint Norwegian–Russian Fisheries Commission [JNRFC, 2016]):
  • TAC for the next year will be set at level corresponding to FMSY.
  • The TAC should not be changed by more than ±25% compared with the previous year TAC.
  • If the spawning stock falls below B pa , the procedure for establishing TAC should be based on a fishing mortality that is linearly reduced from FMSY at B pa to F = 0 at SSB equal to zero. At SSB-levels below B pa in any of the operational years (current year and a year ahead) there should be no limitations on the year-to-year variations in TAC.
At the 46th Session of the Joint Norwegian–Russian Fisheries Commission in 2016 it was decided to keep the existing HCR for haddock for the next five years. Quota flexibility: In 2014, JNRFC decided that from 2015 onwards, Norway and Russia can transfer to, or borrow from, the following year up to 10% of the country’s quota. ICES evaluated this HCR in 2016 (ICES, 2016) and rechecked it in 2020 (ICES, 2020). ICES concluded that the HCR is precautionary.
Table 3 Haddock in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). The basis of the advice.

Quality of the assessment

After the 2020 benchmark, the assessment has been fairly consistent from year to year.

Historic retrospective pattern
Figure 2 Haddock in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Historical assessment results. There was a benchmark revision in 2020. The shaded areas indicate the 95% confidence intervals for the 2023 assessment.

 

Issues relevant for the advice

Due to the temporary suspension of Russian scientists from ICES this assessment was conducted by a Joint Russian-Norwegian working group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG) consisting of scientists from VNIRO (Russia), and IMR (Norway) (Howell et al., 2023).

This advice has been conducted outside ICES and should not be considered as ICES advice. However, this assessment and advice has been produced following the methodology agreed at the ICES benchmark in 2020 (ICES, 2020).

The decline in catches and spawning stock is expected to continue at least until the 2021 year-class is fully recruited to the fishery and spawning stock after age 5.

The 2022 data from the ecosystem survey were not included in the assessment due to incomplete spatial coverage and poor synopticity.

Reference points

Table 4 Haddock in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Reference points, values, and their technical basis.
Framework Reference point Value Technical basis Source
MSY approach MSY Btrigger 80 000 tonnes Bpa ICES (2020)
FMSY 0.35 Stochastic long-term simulations ICES (2020)
Precautionary approach Blim 50 000 tonnes Bloss (lowest observed SSB) ICES (2020)
Bpa 80 000 tonnes Blim  × exp (1.645 ×  σ ), where σ  = 0.3 ICES (2020)
Flim 0.77 Determined from replacement line leading from SSB = 0 to the geometric mean recruitment at SSB = B lim ICES (2020)
Fpa 0.47 Flim  × exp (−1.645 ×  σ ), where σ  = 0.3 ICES (2020)
Management plan SSBMGT 80 000 tonnes Bpa ICES (2020)
FMGT 0.35 FMSY ICES (2020)

Basis of the assessment

Table 5 Haddock in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Basis of the assessment and advice.
ICES stock data category 1
Assessment type Age-based analytical assessment (SAM) that uses catches in the model (ICES, 2021).
Input data Commercial landings (international landings, ages, and length frequencies from catch sampling); four survey indices (RU-BTr-Q4 (Btr), BS-NoRU-Q1(Aco), BS-NoRu-Q1 (BTr), and Eco-NoRu-Q3 (Btr)); annual maturity and stock weight-at-age data from surveys; from 1984, the natural mortalities are derived from the consumption of haddock (ages 3–6) by cod.
Discards and bycatch Discarding is considered negligible in recent years.
Indicators None.
Other information Last benchmarked in February 2020 (ICES, 2020).
Working group Joint Russian-Norwegian Arctic Fisheries Working Group (JRN-AFWG)

History of the advice, catch, and management

Table 6 Haddock in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). ICES advice, agreed TACs, the official and unreported landings, and ICES catches. All weights are in tonnes.
Year ICES advice Catch corresponding to advice Agreed TAC Official catches Unreported landings (included in ICES catches) ICES catches
1987 No increase in F; TAC 160000 250000 154916   154916
1988 No increase in F < 240000 240000 95255   95255
1989 Large reduction in F 69000 83000 58518   58518
1990 No directed fishery - 25000 27182   27182
1991 No directed fishery - 28000 36216   36216
1992 Within safe biological limits 35000 63000 59922   59922
1993 No long-term gains in increasing F 56000 72000 82379   82379
1994 No long-term gains in F > Fmed 97000** 120000 135186   135186
1995 No long-term gains in F > Fmed 122000** 130000 142448   142448
1996 No long-term gains in F > Fmed 169000** 170000 178128   178128
1997 Well below Fmed < 242000 210000 154359   154359
1998 Below Fmed < 120000 130000 100630   100630
1999 Reduce F below Fpa < 74000 78000 83195   83195
2000 Reduce F below Fpa < 37000 62000 68944   68944
2001 Reduce F below Fpa < 66000 85000 89640   89640
2002 Reduce F below Fpa < 64000 85000 96062 18736 114798
2003 Reduce F below Fpa < 101000 101000 105700 33226 138926
2004 Reduce F below Fpa < 120000 130000 124502 33777 158279
2005 Reduce F below Fpa < 106000 117000 118015 40283 158298
2006 Reduce F below Fpa < 112000 120000 131706 21451 153157
2007 Limit catches < 130000 150000 146972 14553 161525
2008 Limit catches to 2001–2004 average < 130000 155000 149776 5828 155604
2009 Apply management plan < 194000 194000 200061 0 200061
2010 Apply management plan < 243000 243000 249200 0 249200
2011 Apply management plan < 303000 303000 309785 0 309785
2012 Apply management plan < 318000 318000 315627 0 315627
2013 Apply management plan < 238000 200000 193744 0 193744
2014 Apply management plan < 150000 178500 177522 0 177522
2015 Apply management plan < 165000 223000 194756 0 194756
2016 Apply management plan < 244000^ 244000 233416 0 233416
2017 Apply management plan ≤ 233000 233000 227588 0 227588
2018 Apply management plan ≤ 202305 202305 191276 0 191276
2019 Apply management plan ≤ 152000 172000 175402 0 175402
2020 Apply management plan ≤ 215000 215000 182468 0 182468
2021 Apply management plan ≤ 232537 232537 204743 0 204743 ^^
2022 Apply management plan ≤ 178532 178532 176906 0 176906^^
2023 Apply management plan ≤ 1 70067 ^^ 1 70067      
2024 Apply management plan ≤ 1 27550 ^^        

* Coastal haddock in Norwegian statistical areas 06 and 07 (south of Lofoten) are included.
** Predicted landings at Fmed .
^ This advice was updated on 7 July 2015 in response to a special request (ICES, 2015) after a mid-year change in TAC in 2015 (from 178500 tonnes to 223000 tonnes) .
^^ In 2022 and 2023 assessment and advice was carried out by the Joint Russian-Norwegian Arctic Fisheries Working Group (JRN-AFWG) which compiled catches for 2021-2022 and produced the advice for 2023 and 2024.

History of catch and landings

Table 7 Haddock in ICES subareas 1 and 2. History of official commercial catch and landings by country. All weights are in tonnes.
Year Faroe Islands France Fed. Rep. Germany. Greenland Norway^ Russia** Spain United Kingdom Others Unreported catches*** Total
1960 172 - 5597   46263 57025   45469 125 - 154651
1961 285 220 6304   60862 85345    39650 558 - 193224
1962 83 409 2895   54567 91910   37486 58 - 187408
1963 17 363 2554   59955 63526   19809 - - 146224
1964 - 208 1482   38695 43870   14653 250 - 99158
1965 - 226 1568   60447 41750   14345 242 - 118578
1966 - 1072 2098   82090 48710   27723 85 - 161778
1967 - 1208 1705   51954 57346   24158 26 - 136397
1968 - - 1867   64076 75654   40129 0 - 181726
1969 2 - 1490   67549 24211   37234 334 - 130820
1970 541 - 2119   37716 26802   20423 656 - 88257
1971 81 - 896   45715 15778   16373 62 - 78905
1972 137 - 1433   46700 196224   17166 4493 - 266153
1973 1212 3214 9534   86767 186534   32408 2557 - 322226
1974 925 3601 23409   66164 78548   37663 10847 - 221157
1975 299 5191 15930   55966 65015   28677 4680 - 175758
1976 536 4459 16660   49492 42485   16940 6692 - 137264
1977 213 1510 4798   40118 52210   10878 431 - 110158
1978 466 1411 1521   39955 45895   5766 408 - 95422
1979 343 1198 1948   66849 26365   6454 466 - 103623
1980 497 226 1365   66501 20706   2948 261 - 92504
1981 381 414 2402   63435 13400   1682 22 - 81736
1982 496 53 1258   43702 2900 - 827 0 - 49236
1983 428 - 729   22364 680 139 259 1 - 24600
1984 297 15 400   18813 1103 37 276 4 - 20945
1985 424 21 395   21272 22690 77 153 20 - 45052
1986 893 12 1079   52313 45738 22 431 75 - 100563
1987 464 7 3105   72419 78211 59 563 88 - 154916
1988 1113 116 1323   60823 31293 72 435 80 - 95255
1989 1217 - 171   36451 20062 1 590 26 - 58518
1990 705 - 167   20621 5190 - 494 5 - 27182
1991 1117 - 213   22178 12177 - 514 17 - 36216
1992 1093 151 387 1719 36238 19699 38 596 1 - 59922
1993 546 1215 1165 880 40978 35071 76 1802 646 - 82379
1994 2761 678 2412 770 71171 51822 22 4673 877 - 135186
1995 2833 598 2675 1097 76886 54516 14 3111 718 - 142448
1996 3743 6 942 1510 94527 74239 669 2275 217 - 178128
1997 3327 540 972 1877 103407 41228 364 2340 304 - 154359
1998 1903 241 385 854 75108 20559 257 1229 94 - 100630
1999 1913 64 641 437 48182 30520 652 694 92 - 83195
2000 631 178 880 432 42009 22738 502 747 827 - 68944
2001 1210 324 554 553 49067 34307 1497 1068 1060 - 89640
2002 1564 297 627 858 52247 37157 1505 1125 682 18736 114798
2003 1959 382 918 1363 56485 41142 1330 1018 1103 33226 138926
2004 2484 103 823 1680 62192 54347 54 1250 1569 33777 158279
2005 2138 333 996 15 60850 50012 963 1899 1262 40283 158751
2006 2390 883 989 1830 69272 53313 703 1164 1162 21451 153157
2007 2307 277 1123 1464 71244 66569 125 1351 2511 14553 161525
2008 2687 311 535 1659 72779 68792 283 971 1759 5828 155604
2009 2820 529 1957 1410 104354 85514 317 1315 1845 0 200061
2010 3173 764 3539 1970 123384 111372 379 1758 2862 0 249200
2011 1759 268 1724 2110 158202 139912 502 1379 3929 0 309785
2012 2055 322 1111 3984 159602 143886 441 833 3393 0 315627
2013 1886 342 500 1795 99215 85668 439 639 3260 0 193744
2014 1470 198 340 1150 91306 78725 187 355 3791 0 177522
2015 2459 145 124 1047 95094 91864 246 450 3327 0 194756
2016 2460 340 170 1401 108718 115710 200 575 3838 0 233416
2017 2776 108 170 1810 113132 106714 228 372 2279 0 227588
2018 2333 183 385 1317 93839 90486 169 453 2173 0 191276
2019 1515 143 204 1208 93860 76125 280 456 1611 0 175402
2020 1392 96 282 910 88108 89030 45 320 2286 0 182468
2021^^ 1722 105 365 1101 100673 98296 131 78 2272 0 204743
2022*^^ 1831 164 268 1101 89044 82364 99 138 1897 0 176906

* Provisional figures.
** USSR prior to 1991.
*** Figures based on Norwegian/Russian illegal, unreported, and unregulated fisheries (IUU) estimates.
^ Landings of coastal haddock in Norwegian statistical areas 06 and 07 (south of Lofoten) are included from 1983.
^^ In 2022 and 2023 assessment and advice was carried out by the Joint Russian-Norwegian Arctic Fisheries Working Group (JRN-AFWG) which compiled catches for 2021-2022 and produced the advice for 2023 and 2024.

Summary of the assessment

Table 8 Haddock in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Assessment summary. High and low refer to 95% confidence bounds.
Year Recruitment (thousands) SSB (tonnes) Total catch (tonnes) F
Age 3 Low High SSB Low High Ages 4–7 Low High
1950 109623 69719 172368 213220 191156 237830 132125 0.792 0.672 0.934
1951 631600 419651 950595 124921 110924 140684 120077 0.681 0.574 0.808
1952 84773 54716 131341 100892 88188 115426 127660 0.702 0.587 0.839
1953 1185570 788600 1782370 120474 104198 139293 123920 0.531 0.44 0.642
1954 131072 84429 203482 173396 147339 204060 156788 0.43 0.354 0.521
1955 59015 37632 92549 310699 265693 363330 202286 0.448 0.372 0.539
1956 224093 143883 349018 365196 311618 427984 213924 0.473 0.394 0.569
1957 60604 38656 95014 253014 217173 294769 123583 0.427 0.356 0.512
1958 73937 47720 114558 181479 157787 208730 112672 0.517 0.431 0.622
1959 385837 255412 582864 125376 108965 144258 88211 0.444 0.367 0.538
1960 316609 207861 482251 112820 99557 127849 154651 0.54 0.451 0.646
1961 142992 94247 216948 124521 110996 139694 193224 0.663 0.561 0.784
1962 290838 193209 437798 124755 110917 140319 187408 0.793 0.674 0.932
1963 312452 209219 466621 93953 82727 106701 146224 0.759 0.637 0.903
1964 352527 234648 529623 84272 74117 95818 99158 0.633 0.526 0.761
1965 126418 82446 193844 103006 90021 117864 118578 0.525 0.435 0.634
1966 311649 205173 473380 145159 126569 166479 161778 0.559 0.466 0.67
1967 339662 223233 516817 150924 130293 174822 136397 0.442 0.366 0.534
1968 18632 11581 29976 167460 145218 193109 181726 0.484 0.4 0.586
1969 20419 12678 32884 167225 143902 194328 130820 0.414 0.338 0.506
1970 207491 134384 320370 154939 131625 182383 88257 0.385 0.312 0.475
1971 111175 72211 171164 127393 107531 150922 78905 0.327 0.262 0.407
1972 1070502 702592 1631067 128356 111626 147594 266153 0.657 0.54 0.801
1973 313265 207865 472108 124981 107671 145074 322226 0.537 0.44 0.656
1974 65486 42670 100502 153799 134217 176238 221157 0.502 0.415 0.608
1975 59189 38540 90901 194901 167177 227223 175758 0.496 0.414 0.593
1976 60684 38901 94664 195998 168532 227941 137264 0.719 0.606 0.852
1977 121979 76877 193541 118883 100338 140857 110158 0.736 0.608 0.89
1978 214424 142356 322979 80977 67141 97665 95422 0.626 0.51 0.769
1979 160926 106383 243435 62345 52497 74039 103623 0.582 0.47 0.722
1980 23213 14499 37164 62642 53262 73674 87889 0.474 0.381 0.59
1981 10753 6412 18033 72614 61489 85753 77153 0.435 0.349 0.542
1982 16720 10242 27295 68575 56806 82784 46955 0.381 0.303 0.479
1983 8149 4776 13902 58539 48137 71188 24600 0.348 0.273 0.445
1984 12959 7947 21134 53258 43476 65242 20945 0.314 0.244 0.405
1985 359312 236221 546544 49122 40892 59009 45052 0.397 0.312 0.505
1986 475093 314149 718492 54736 46432 64525 100563 0.536 0.427 0.673
1987 91356 59208 140957 77455 66308 90476 154916 0.63 0.508 0.782
1988 39791 25056 63192 79718 67210 94553 95255 0.512 0.411 0.637
1989 28136 17461 45338 84374 69643 102221 58518 0.372 0.296 0.468
1990 36625 23539 56987 86094 70227 105547 27182 0.211 0.165 0.268
1991 109109 76849 154913 100514 84514 119543 36216 0.239 0.191 0.299
1992 322033 229560 451758 110630 95699 127889 59922 0.296 0.239 0.366
1993 826301 602336 1133542 124712 110048 141329 82379 0.319 0.26 0.391
1994 393766 319529 485252 156442 139995 174822 135186 0.375 0.31 0.453
1995 100598 78995 128108 190422 170029 213262 142448 0.302 0.254 0.359
1996 100245 79110 127026 220324 196959 246461 178128 0.369 0.314 0.433
1997 120223 95102 151980 191369 170872 214324 154359 0.448 0.38 0.529
1998 63423 49360 81492 133091 118110 149971 100630 0.454 0.381 0.541
1999 149058 119876 185343 96283 85445 108497 83195 0.463 0.385 0.558
2000 83495 65831 105898 79739 70662 89982 68944 0.342 0.281 0.417
2001 364169 299709 442494 93068 83120 104206 89640 0.369 0.307 0.444
2002 391892 321807 477240 111070 99298 124238 114798 0.354 0.295 0.425
2003 338236 273815 417813 140482 126288 156272 138926 0.428 0.362 0.505
2004 259668 213462 315874 159092 143041 176944 158279 0.392 0.334 0.461
2005 362149 299324 438161 170323 153202 189358 158298 0.408 0.348 0.478
2006 156383 127361 192018 154878 139215 172302 153157 0.372 0.316 0.439
2007 529730 435759 643965 156349 140853 173550 161525 0.389 0.33 0.46
2008 1082898 900454 1302306 165612 148176 185101 155604 0.32 0.268 0.382
2009 1006157 838256 1207688 188052 168383 210019 200061 0.266 0.223 0.317
2010 238242 194758 291435 253718 226928 283670 249200 0.25 0.212 0.296
2011 118425 94405 148557 365658 326967 408928 309785 0.262 0.224 0.307
2012 338277 277459 412427 480739 426855 541425 315627 0.225 0.192 0.265
2013 119004 95182 148787 527223 466340 596054 193744 0.151 0.126 0.179
2014 408463 336651 495592 526488 469008 591013 177522 0.156 0.131 0.187
2015 72818 57371 92425 499967 449971 555517 194756 0.191 0.16 0.228
2016 211215 171518 260100 491826 443504 545413 233183 0.262 0.222 0.31
2017 195172 158817 239849 411777 373750 453673 227588 0.351 0.298 0.414
2018 361715 294755 443888 304028 275111 335985 191276 0.406 0.345 0.477
2019 803698 664905 971462 233785 211128 258874 175402 0.437 0.368 0.519
2020 432773 355823 526363 196925 176888 219231 182468 0.449 0.377 0.535
2021 162387 129606 203461 188827 167976 212267 204743 0.439 0.366 0.526
2022 44865 32747 61469 196492 168994 228465 176906 0.351 0.284 0.434
2023 157204 117650 210057 210340 169939 260346        

References

Howell et al. 2023. Report of the Joint Russian-Norwegian Working Group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG). IMR-PINRO no.7-2023.

ICES. 2015. Norway and Russia request to ICES for revised advice for Haddock in Subareas I and II . In Report of the ICES Advisory Committee, 2015. ICES Advice 2015, Book 3, Section 3.2.3.1. 9 pp. http://www.ices.dk/sites/pub/Publication%20Reports/Advice/2015/Special_Requests/Norway_Russia_had-arct_update.pdf .

ICES 2016. Report of the second Workshop on Management Plan Evaluation on Northeast Arctic cod and haddock and Barents Sea capelin (WKNEAMP-2) , 25-28 January 2016, Kirkenes, Norway. ICES CM 2016/ACOM:47, 76 pp.

JNRFC. 2016. Protocol of the 46th Session of the Joint Norwegian–Russian Fisheries Commission, 17–20 October 2016 (In Russian). 117 pp. Available at: http://www.jointfish.com/rus/content/download/502/6357/file/46-russisk.pdf .

ICES. 2020. Benchmark Workshop for Demersal Species (WKDEM). ICES Scientific Reports, 2:31. 136 pp. http://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.5548 .

ICES. 2021. Arctic Fisheries Working Group (AFWG). ICES Scientific Reports. 3:58. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.8196.