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Advice on fishing opportunities for Northeast Arctic cod in 2024 in ICES subareas 1 and 2

Stock Name: Northeast Arctic cod (ICES areas 1 and 2)

Advice on fishing opportunities

The Joint Russian-Norwegian Arctic Fisheries Working Group (JRN-AFWG) advises that when the Joint Norwegian–Russian Fisheries Commission management plan is applied, catches in 2024 should be no more than 453 427 tonnes.

Stock development over time

Fishing pressure on the stock is between Fpa and Flim and within the F mgt range and spawning-stock size is above Bpa and Blim and between the lower and middle breakpoints (SSBmgt values) in the harvest control rule.

Figure 1
Figure 1 Cod in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Catch, recruitment, F, SSB and TSB (total stock biomass, age 3+) with 95 % confidence levels. The biomass reference points relate to SSB. For this stock, Fmgt ranges from 0.40 to 0.60, and there are three SSB mgt values (460 000, 920 000 and 1 380 000 tonnes).

Catch scenarios

Variable Value Notes
F ages 5–10 (2023) 0.574 Fsq =F2022. From assessment
SSB (2024) 587 836 From assessment
R age 3 (2023) 446 000 From recruitment model
R age 3 (2024) 409 000 From recruitment model
R age 3 (2025) 239 000 From recruitment model
Total catch (2023) 572 800 Corresponding to Fsq
Table 1 Cod in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Assumptions made for the interim year and in the forecast. SSB, catch in tonnes, and recruitment in thousands.
Basis Total catch (2024) F5-10 (2024) SSB(2025) % SSB change* % TAC change** % Advice change***
ICES advice basis  
Management plan^ 453 427 0.540 506 615 -14 -20 -20
Other options  
F = 0 .40**** 357 377 0.40 586 401 0 -37 -37
F = 0 0 0 900 153 53 -100 -100
F = F2022 475 016 0.574 489 013 -17 -16 -16
Fpa 357 377 0.40 586 401 0 -37 -37
Flim 571 054 0.74 412 367 -30 1 1
Table 2 Cod in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Annual catch options. All weights are in tonnes.

* SSB 2025 relative to SSB 2024.
** Advice for 2024 relative to TAC for 2023 (566 784 tonnes).
*** Advice for 2024 relative to advice for 2023.
**** F = 0.40 corresponds to the lower bound of the F MSY range (0.40-0.60).

^ Since SSB in 2024 is between Bpa = 460 000 tonnes and 2 × Bpa = 920 000 tonnes, F = 0.40 is used in the 3-year prediction, giving catches of 357 377, 354 196 and 355 390 tonnes in 2024, 2025 and 2026, respectively. The average of this is 355 655 tonnes. According to the harvest control rule (HCR), the maximum decrease in TAC is limited by 20%, giving a catch of 453 427 tonnes, which corresponds to an F of 0.540 in 2024.

The advice for 2024 is 20 % lower than the advice for 2023 due to a declining stock trend and the application of the 20% TAC change constraint.

Basis of the advice

Advice basis Joint Norwegian-Russian Fisheries Commission management plan
Management plan

At the 46th meeting of the Joint Norwegian-Russian Fisheries Commission (JNRFC) in October 2016, the previously used management plan was amended, and the current plan is as follows:

The TAC is calculated as the average catch predicted for the coming 3 years, using the target level of exploitation (F tr ).

The target level of exploitation is calculated according to the spawning-stock biomass (SSB) in the first year of the forecast as follows: - if SSB < Bpa , then Ftr = SSB / Bpa  × FMSY ; - if Bpa ≤ SSB ≤ 2×Bpa , then  Ftr  = FMSY ; - if 2 × Bpa < SSB < 3 × Bpa , then Ftr  = FMSY  × (1 + 0.5 × (SSB – 2 × Bpa ) / Bpa ); - if SSB ≥ 3 × Bpa , then Ftr  = 1.5 × FMSY ; where FMSY  = 0.40 and Bpa  = 460 000 tonnes.

If the spawning-stock biomass in the present year, the previous year, and each of the three years of prediction is above Bpa , the TAC should not be changed by more than ±20% compared with the previous year’s TAC. In this case, Ftr should however not be below 0.30. In 2014, JNRFC decided that from 2015 onwards, Norway and Russia can transfer to or borrow from the following year up to 10% of the country's quota. In 2021, this was increased to 15% as an extraordinary measure for transfers between 2021 and 2022 only. ICES evaluated this harvest control rule in 2016 (ICES, 2016) and 2021 (ICES, 2021) and concluded that it is precautionary.

Table 3 Cod in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). The basis of the advice.

Quality of the assessment

After the 2021 benchmark, the assessment has been fairly consistent from year to year. Recruitment predictions in recent years have been overestimates.

 

Historic retrospective pattern
Figure 2 Cod in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Historical assessment results. There was a benchmark revision in 2021. The shaded areas indicate the 95% confidence intervals for the 2023 assessment.

 

Issues relevant for the advice

Due to the temporary suspension of Russian scientists from ICES, this assessment was as in 2022 conducted by a Joint Russian-Norwegian Arctic Fisheries Working Group (JRN-AFWG) consisting of scientists from VNIRO (Russia) and IMR (Norway) (Howell et al., 2023).

This advice has been conducted outside ICES and should not be considered as ICES advice. However, this assessment and advice has been produced following the methodology agreed at the ICES benchmark in 2021 (ICES, 2021).

Fisheries targeting Northeast Arctic (NEA) cod take as bycatch a considerable part of the total golden redfish ( Sebastes norvegicus) catch, and the bycatch of the latter species is still above any sustainable catch level. Measures to minimize bycatch levels are essential.

Bycatch of coastal cod should be kept as low as possible in order to avoid overfishing of the coastal cod ( Gadus morhua ) stocks.

The 2022 data from the ecosystem survey were not included due to incomplete spatial coverage and poor synopticity.

The advice this year is considerably lower than last year due to the declining trend in stock size which is confirmed by low survey indices and below average recruitment to the stock.

Recruitment has been below average after the 2014 year class. The medium-term predictions for 2025 and following years indicate that a further 20% reduction in catch from 2024 to 2025 will be advised and then catches will stabilize around 350 000 tonnes and stock size will also stabilize around 1.3 million tonnes. However, SSB is now approaching Bpa , below which level recruitment may be impaired. Should SSB fall below Bpa , then according to the management plan the 20 % stability constraint on the advised quota will no longer be applied.

Reference points

Framework Reference point Value Technical basis Source
MSY approach MSY Btrigger 460 000 t B pa , and trigger point in HCR ICES (2003, 2021)
FMSY range 0.40 – 0.60 Long-term simulations ICES (2003, 2021)
Precautionary approach Blim 220 000 t Change point regression ICES (2003, 2021)
B pa 460 000 t The lowest SSB estimate having >90% probability of remaining above B lim ICES (2003, 2021 )
Flim 0.74 F corresponding to an equilibrium stock = B lim ICES (2003, 2021)
Fpa 0.40 The highest F estimate having >90% probability of remaining below F lim ICES (2003, 2021)
Management plan SSBmgt 460 000 t Two-step (double hockey-stick) HCR, see Table 3 ICES (2017)
Fmgt 0.40 – 0.60 Two-step (double hockey-stick) HCR, see Table 3 ICES (2017)
Table 4 Cod in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Reference points, values, and their technical basis.

Basis of the assessment

ICES stock data category 1
Assessment type Age-based analytical assessment (SAM) that uses catches in the model and in the forecast.
Input data Commercial catches (international landings, ages and length frequencies from catch sampling); four survey indices (Joint bottom trawl survey Barents Sea, Jan–Mar; Joint acoustic survey Barents Sea and Lofoten, Feb–Mar; Russian bottom trawl survey, October–December; Joint Ecosystem survey); annual maturity data from the four surveys; natural mortalities from annual stomach sampling.
Discards and bycatch Discarding is considered negligible in recent years (below 5%). Bycatch is included.
Indicators None.
Other information The methodology of assessment adopted by the last ICES benchmark for the stock in February 2021 (ICES, 2021) was followed.
Working group Joint Russian-Norwegian Arctic Fisheries Working Group (JRN-AFWG).
Table 5 Cod in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Basis of the assessment and advice.

History of the advice, catch, and management

Year ICES advice Catch corresponding to advice Agreed TAC Official catches Unreported landings (included in ICES catches) ICES catches
1987 Gradual reduction in F 595000 560000 552000   523071
1988 F = 0.51; TAC (Advice November 1987, revised advice May 1988) 530000 (320000–360000) 590000 (451000) 459000   434939
1989 Large reduction in F 335000 300000 348000   332481
1990 F at Flow; TAC 172000 160000 210000 25000 212000
1991 F at Flow; TAC 215000 215000 294000 50000 319158
1992 Within safe biological limits 250000 356000 421000 130000 513234
1993 Healthy stock 256000 500000 575000 50000 581611
1994 No long-term gains in increased F 649000 700000 795000 25000 771086
1995 No long-term gains in increased F 681000 700000 763000   739999
1996 No long-term gains in increased F 746000 700000 759000   732228
1997 Well below Fmed < 993000 850000 792000   762403
1998 F less than Fmed 514000 654000 615000   592624
1999 Reduce F to below Fpa 360000 480000 506000   484910
2000 Increase B above Bpa in 2001 110000 390000     414870
2001 High probability of SSB> Bpa in 2003 263000 395000     426471
2002 Reduce F to well below 0.25 181000 395000   90000 535045
2003 Reduce F to below Fpa 305000 395000   115000 551990
2004 Reduce F to below Fpa 398000 486000   117000 606445
2005 Take into account coastal cod and redfish bycatches. Apply catch rule. 485000 485000   166000 641276
2006 Take into account coastal cod and redfish bycatches. Apply amended catch rule. 471000 471000   67100 537642
2007 Take into account coastal cod and redfish bycatches. Fpa 309000 424000   41087 486883
2008 Take into account coastal cod and redfish bycatches. Apply catch rule. 409000 430000   15000 464171
2009 Take into account coastal cod and redfish bycatches. Apply catch rule. 473000 525000   0 523431
2010 Take into account coastal cod and redfish bycatches. Apply catch rule. 577500 607000   0 609983
2011 Take into account coastal cod and redfish bycatches. Apply catch rule. 703000 703000   0 719829
2012 Take into account coastal cod and redfish bycatches. Apply catch rule. 751000 751000   0 727663
2013 Take into account coastal cod and S. marinus ^^ bycatches. Apply catch rule. 940000 1000000   0 966209
2014 Take into account coastal cod and S. marinus^^ bycatches. Apply catch rule. 993000 993000   0 986449
2015 Take into account coastal cod and S. norvegicus bycatches. Apply catch rule. 894000 894000   0 864384
2016 Take into account coastal cod and S. norvegicus bycatches. Apply catch rule. 805000 894000   0 849422
2017 Take into account coastal cod and S. norvegicus bycatches. Apply management plan. 805000 890000 ^   0 868276
2018 Take into account coastal cod and S. norvegicus bycatches. Apply management plan. 712000 775000   0 778627
2019 Take into account coastal cod and S. norvegicus bycatches. Apply management plan. 674678 725000   0 692609
2020 Apply management plan 689672 738000   0 692903
2021 Apply management plan 885600 885600   0 767284^^^
2022 Apply management plan 708480 708480   0 719211^^^
2023 Apply management plan^^^ 566784 566784      
2024 Apply management plan^^^ 453427        
Table 6 Cod in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). ICES advice, agreed TACs, the official and unreported landings, and ICES catches. All weights are in tonnes.

^ The 2017 TAC was set according to the management plan agreed by JNRFC in October 2016.
^^ Until 2014 this species was named Sebastes marinus , thereafter Sebastes norvegicus.
^^^ In 2022 and 2023 assessment and advice was carried out by the Joint Russian-Norwegian Arctic Fisheries working group (JRN-AFWG) which compiled catches for 2021 and 2022 and gave advice for 2023 and 2024.

History of catch and landings

Year Faroe Islands France German Dem.Rep. Fed.Rep. Germany Greenland Iceland Norway Poland United Kingdom Russia** Spain Others Total
1961 3934 13755 3921 8129     268377 -   158113 325780   1212 783221
1962 3109 20482 1532 6503     225615 -   175020 476760   245 909266
1963 - 18318 129 4223     205056 108   129779 417964   - 775577
1964 - 8634 297 3202     149878 -   94549 180550   585 437695
1965 - 526 91 3670     197085 -   89962 152780   816 444930
1966 - 2967 228 4284     203792 -   103012 169300   121 483704
1967 - 664 45 3632     218910 -   87008 262340   6 572605
1968 - - 225 1073     255611 -   140387 676758   - 1074084
1969 29374 - 5907 5543     305241 7856   231066 612215   133 1197226
1970 26265 44245 12413 9451     377606 5153   181481 276632   - 933246
1971 5877 34772 4998 9726     407044 1512   80102 144802   215 689048
1972 1393 8915 1300 3405     394181 892   58382 96653   166 565287
1973 1916 17028 4684 16751     285184 843   78808 387196   276 792686
1974 5717 46028 4860 78507     287276 9898   90894 540801   38453 1102434
1975 11309 28734 9981 30037     277099 7435   101843 343580   19368 829377
1976 11511 20941 8946 24369     344502 6986   89061 343057   18090 867463
1977 9167 15414 3463 12763     388982 1084   86781 369876   17771 905301
1978 9092 9394 3029 5434     363088 566   35449 267138   5525 698715
1979 6320 3046 547 2513     294821 15   17991 105846   9439 440538
1980 9981 1705 233 1921     232242 3   10366 115194   8789 380434
1981 12825 3106 298 2228     277818     5262 83000 14500 - 399037
1982 11998 761 302 1717     287525     6601 40311 14515 - 363730
1983 11106 126 473 1243     234000     5840 22975 14229 - 289992
1984 10674 11 686 1010     230743     3663 22256 8608 - 277651
1985 13418 23 1019 4395     211065     3335 62489 7846 4330 307920
1986 18667 591 1543 10092     232096     7581 150541 5497 3505 430113
1987 15036 1 986 7035     268004     10957 202314 16223 2515 523071
1988 15329 2551 605 2803     223412     8107 169365 10905 1862 434939
1989 15625 3231 326 3291     158684     7056 134593 7802 1273 332481
1990 9584 592 169 1437     88737     3412 74609 7950 510 187000
1991 8981 975   2613     126226     3981 119427*** 3677 3278 269158
1992 11663 2   3911 3337   168460     6120 182315 6217 1209 383234
1993 17435 3572   5887 5389 9374 221051     11336 244860 8800 3907 531611
1994 22826 1962   8283 6882 36737 318395     15579 291925 14929 28568 746086
1995 22262 4912   7428 7462 34214 319987     16329 296158 15505 15742 739999
1996 17758 5352   8326 6529 23005 319158     16061 305317 15871 14851 732228
1997 20076 5353   6680 6426 4200 357825     18066 313344 17130 13303 762403
1998 14290 1197   3841 6388 1423 284647     14294 244115 14212 8217 592624
1999 13700 2137   3019 4093 1985 223390     11315 210379 8994 5898 484910
2000 13350 2621   3513 5787 7562 192860     9165 166202 8695 5115 414870
2001 12500 2681   4524 5727 5917 188431     8698 183572 9196 5225 426471
2002 15693 2934   4517 6419 5975 202559     8977 184072 8414 5484 445045
2003 19427 2921   4732 7026 5963 191977     8711 182160 7924 6149 436990
2004 19226 3621   6187 8196 7201 212117     14004 201525 11285 6082 489445
2005 16273 3491   5848 8135 5874 207825     10744 200077 9349 7660 475276
2006 16327 4376   3837 8164 5972 201987     10594 203782 9219 6271 470527
2007 14788 3190   4619 5951 7316 199809     9298 186229 9496 5101 445796
2008 15812 3149   4955 5617 7535 196598     8287 190225 9658 7336 449171
2009 16905 3908   8585 4977 7380 224298     8632 229291 12013 7442 523431
2010 15977 4499   8442 6584 11299 264701     9091 267547 12657 9185 609983
2011 13429 1173   4621 7155 12734 331535     8210 310326 13291 17354^ 719829
2012 17523 2841   8500 8520 9536 315739     11166 329943 12814 11081 727663
2013 13833 7858   8010 7885 14734 438734     12536 432314 15042 15263 966209
2014 33298 8149   6225 10864 18205 431846     14762 433479 16378 13243 986449
2015 26568 7480   6427 7055 16120 377983     11778 381778 19905 9880 864384
2016 24084 7946   6336 8607 16031 348949     13583 394107 14640 15139 849422
2017 28637 9554   5977 13638 11925 357419     16731 396180 14414 13802 868276
2018 26152 6605   9768 12743 10708 333539     11533 340364 13143 14071 778627
2019 22270 6371   8470 7553 12294 282120     11214 316813 13939 11565 692609
2020 21679 5796   9725 7391 9734 289472     12113 312683 11403 12908 692903
2021 21767 4459   6190 8246 8933 337931     5426 352064 11080 11188 767284^^
2022* 21530 4988   7134 7688 6214 310145     7024 333697 12214 8577 719211^^
Table 7 Cod in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). History of commercial landings by country. All weights are in tonnes.

* Provisional figures
** USSR prior to 1991.
*** Includes Baltic countries.
^ Includes unspecified EU catches.
^^ In 2022 and 2023 assessment and advice was carried out by the Joint Russian-Norwegian Arctic Fisheries working group (JRN-AFWG) which compiled catches for 2021 and 2022 and gave advice for 2023 and 2024.

Summary of the assessment

Year Recruitment Spawning-stock biomass Total catch Fishing mortality
Recruitment (Age 3) Low High SSB Low High F (ages 5–10) Low High
thousands Tonnes tonnes
1946 1131733 781426 1639078 952756 800517 1133947 706000 0.25 0.21 0.297
1947 589231 412364 841960 903304 767137 1063639 882017 0.309 0.268 0.357
1948 449846 312706 647128 785151 662274 930827 774295 0.348 0.303 0.4
1949 626523 442032 888016 595159 511249 692840 800122 0.369 0.323 0.422
1950 1024221 725123 1446690 536002 470975 610007 731982 0.382 0.335 0.436
1951 2407714 1708528 3393032 495064 440346 556581 827180 0.413 0.363 0.469
1952 2328597 1666298 3254138 488824 431608 553625 876795 0.459 0.404 0.522
1953 2402267 1722497 3350304 412181 361649 469774 695546 0.412 0.362 0.468
1954 833170 598061 1160703 408246 361032 461635 826021 0.438 0.386 0.497
1955 385036 276191 536778 328014 294465 365385 1147841 0.519 0.46 0.585
1956 750321 539501 1043523 281300 253788 311795 1343068 0.57 0.505 0.643
1957 1431458 1031662 1986186 212225 191029 235773 792557 0.528 0.468 0.595
1958 929503 672056 1285573 205350 182986 230448 769313 0.526 0.467 0.591
1959 1312954 952699 1809437 434392 385395 489618 744607 0.546 0.486 0.613
1960 1476784 1071422 2035511 384764 338846 436904 622042 0.539 0.479 0.606
1961 1544518 1119487 2130919 386646 343405 435331 783221 0.634 0.568 0.707
1962 1247843 903580 1723271 315444 283722 350713 909266 0.743 0.666 0.827
1963 907862 653790 1260669 216030 194731 239659 776337 0.815 0.727 0.914
1964 473547 338597 662283 200204 179696 223053 437695 0.678 0.606 0.758
1965 878677 630292 1224945 107974 96100 121315 444930 0.578 0.514 0.65
1966 1839953 1327238 2550732 121031 108952 134449 483711 0.548 0.487 0.616
1967 1308974 944125 1814816 128774 115835 143159 572605 0.556 0.494 0.625
1968 182936 131716 254074 223025 203117 244884 1074084 0.599 0.536 0.67
1969 111045 79892 154347 148985 134427 165120 1197226 0.71 0.635 0.792
1970 206796 148561 287857 242030 218197 268466 933246 0.698 0.625 0.779
1971 406737 293540 563586 330272 293895 371152 689048 0.646 0.577 0.723
1972 1052751 765031 1448681 353277 311941 400090 565254 0.659 0.587 0.739
1973 1700149 1229756 2350472 334102 290855 383779 792685 0.627 0.56 0.703
1974 565981 414583 772666 158993 135790 186160 1102433 0.611 0.546 0.685
1975 610161 446588 833648 133549 119560 149175 829377 0.658 0.591 0.732
1976 599582 436054 824436 167188 151704 184253 867463 0.705 0.635 0.783
1977 372307 273059 507629 336002 299922 376423 905301 0.817 0.736 0.907
1978 621548 454061 850816 227858 199872 259761 698715 0.855 0.77 0.95
1979 204031 149163 279081 180352 157650 206324 440538 0.772 0.693 0.859
1980 131519 98463 175674 108439 96843 121423 380434 0.76 0.684 0.845
1981 144577 110226 189635 161362 146224 178068 399038 0.793 0.715 0.879
1982 181947 141264 234346 321353 288699 357700 363730 0.774 0.699 0.857
1983 140981 109477 181550 311520 280575 345878 289992 0.791 0.715 0.874
1984 443366 347905 565021 243628 222591 266654 277651 0.868 0.786 0.958
1985 529829 425095 660367 195463 178630 213881 307920 0.809 0.733 0.894
1986 1369810 1087193 1725895 164102 150226 179259 430113 0.873 0.793 0.962
1987 357271 283078 450909 115111 104735 126515 523071 0.928 0.842 1.023
1988 334096 265195 420897 191558 173316 211720 434939 0.884 0.793 0.986
1989 158520 127033 197810 237290 212684 264742 332481 0.667 0.594 0.749
1990 132388 104361 167942 303044 266322 344828 212000 0.422 0.366 0.487
1991 298599 236478 377039 636493 565917 715869 319158 0.407 0.357 0.464
1992 714479 573702 889802 804452 723148 894898 513234 0.485 0.433 0.544
1993 988559 794000 1230793 701423 635092 774681 581611 0.586 0.526 0.652
1994 749508 601265 934300 570797 521257 625045 771086 0.747 0.673 0.83
1995 537661 431639 669725 533335 486300 584919 739999 0.771 0.697 0.854
1996 402269 321983 502573 550636 497293 609701 732228 0.791 0.714 0.876
1997 777417 621950 971746 545650 488212 609845 762403 0.937 0.851 1.032
1998 1048459 836046 1314841 385769 345766 430401 592624 0.941 0.855 1.035
1999 626609 499228 786493 280600 252500 311828 484910 0.939 0.853 1.032
2000 747832 598408 934569 255331 233975 278637 414868 0.848 0.768 0.936
2001 591465 473742 738441 383395 347133 423445 426471 0.739 0.666 0.82
2002 374563 300534 466828 520889 471374 575605 535045 0.679 0.612 0.754
2003 757474 609542 941308 571223 518205 629664 551990 0.634 0.569 0.705
2004 242780 198236 297334 665197 604504 731983 606445 0.707 0.637 0.785
2005 694272 565628 852175 578178 526828 634532 641276 0.711 0.638 0.793
2006 538504 438414 661446 581768 530654 637805 537642 0.61 0.543 0.684
2007 1254871 1016429 1549250 647938 587310 714824 486883 0.443 0.392 0.501
2008 1016970 818493 1263575 718024 651175 791736 464171 0.362 0.318 0.411
2009 590980 474494 736061 1008860 916837 1110118 523430 0.308 0.269 0.352
2010 205517 160601 262996 1239289 1124664 1365596 609983 0.292 0.256 0.334
2011 363991 286985 461659 1798145 1625479 1989153 719830 0.309 0.269 0.353
2012 510052 408859 636292 2016129 1816113 2238173 727663 0.291 0.254 0.334
2013 471175 373624 594197 2238973 2008666 2495686 966209 0.317 0.278 0.362
2014 854919 683245 1069728 2123627 1894193 2380852 986449 0.335 0.294 0.382
2015 452525 365146 560813 1714210 1518318 1935376 864384 0.334 0.295 0.38
2016 285806 228500 357483 1370535 1213588 1547780 849422 0.354 0.312 0.402
2017 770881 619270 959609 1395722 1255582 1551503 868276 0.387 0.342 0.439
2018 492321 386933 626414 1258206 1134927 1394875 778627 0.403 0.355 0.458
2019 635422 502979 802738 1198577 1074802 1336606 692609 0.419 0.369 0.476
2020 540952 421568 694146 964937 859377 1083463 692903 0.465 0.406 0.533
2021 386652 292436 511222 835773 733382 952460 767284 0.545 0.462 0.643
2022 197418 139406 279570 711549 592344 854745 719211 0.574 0.46 0.716
2023 446000*     718754 540782 955296        
Table 8 Cod in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Assessment summary. High and low refer to 95% confidence bounds.

* Recruitment model estimate.

References

Howell et al. 2023. Report of the Joint Russian-Norwegian Working Group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG) 2023. IMR-PINRO no.7-2023.

ICES. 2003. Report of the Study Group on Biological Reference Points for Northeast Arctic Cod, 13–17 January 2003,

Svanhovd, Norway. ICES CM 2003/ACFM:11. 39 pp.

ICES. 2016. Report of the second Workshop on Management Plan Evaluation on Northeast Arctic cod and haddock and Barents Sea capelin (WKNEAMP-2) , 25-28 January 2016, Kirkenes, Norway. ICES CM 2016/ACOM:47, 76 pp.

ICES. 2017. Report of the Arctic Fisheries Working Group (AFWG), 19–25 April 2017, ICES HQ, Copenhagen, Denmark. ICES CM 2017/ACOM:06. 493 pp.

ICES. 2021. Benchmark Workshop for Barents Sea and Faroese Stocks (WKBARFAR 2021).

ICES Scientific Reports. 3:21. 205 pp. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.7920

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Advice on fishing opportunities for Northeast Arctic cod in 2024 in ICES subareas 1 and 2

Stock Name: Northeast Arctic cod (ICES areas 1 and 2)

Advice on fishing opportunities

The Joint Russian-Norwegian Arctic Fisheries Working Group (JRN-AFWG) advises that when the Joint Norwegian–Russian Fisheries Commission management plan is applied, catches in 2024 should be no more than 453 427 tonnes.

Stock development over time

Fishing pressure on the stock is between Fpa and Flim and within the F mgt range and spawning-stock size is above Bpa and Blim and between the lower and middle breakpoints (SSBmgt values) in the harvest control rule.

Figure 1
Figure 1 Cod in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Catch, recruitment, F, SSB and TSB (total stock biomass, age 3+) with 95 % confidence levels. The biomass reference points relate to SSB. For this stock, Fmgt ranges from 0.40 to 0.60, and there are three SSB mgt values (460 000, 920 000 and 1 380 000 tonnes).

Catch scenarios

Variable Value Notes
F ages 5–10 (2023) 0.574 Fsq =F2022. From assessment
SSB (2024) 587 836 From assessment
R age 3 (2023) 446 000 From recruitment model
R age 3 (2024) 409 000 From recruitment model
R age 3 (2025) 239 000 From recruitment model
Total catch (2023) 572 800 Corresponding to Fsq
Table 1 Cod in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Assumptions made for the interim year and in the forecast. SSB, catch in tonnes, and recruitment in thousands.
Basis Total catch (2024) F5-10 (2024) SSB(2025) % SSB change* % TAC change** % Advice change***
ICES advice basis  
Management plan^ 453 427 0.540 506 615 -14 -20 -20
Other options  
F = 0 .40**** 357 377 0.40 586 401 0 -37 -37
F = 0 0 0 900 153 53 -100 -100
F = F2022 475 016 0.574 489 013 -17 -16 -16
Fpa 357 377 0.40 586 401 0 -37 -37
Flim 571 054 0.74 412 367 -30 1 1
Table 2 Cod in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Annual catch options. All weights are in tonnes.

* SSB 2025 relative to SSB 2024.
** Advice for 2024 relative to TAC for 2023 (566 784 tonnes).
*** Advice for 2024 relative to advice for 2023.
**** F = 0.40 corresponds to the lower bound of the F MSY range (0.40-0.60).

^ Since SSB in 2024 is between Bpa = 460 000 tonnes and 2 × Bpa = 920 000 tonnes, F = 0.40 is used in the 3-year prediction, giving catches of 357 377, 354 196 and 355 390 tonnes in 2024, 2025 and 2026, respectively. The average of this is 355 655 tonnes. According to the harvest control rule (HCR), the maximum decrease in TAC is limited by 20%, giving a catch of 453 427 tonnes, which corresponds to an F of 0.540 in 2024.

The advice for 2024 is 20 % lower than the advice for 2023 due to a declining stock trend and the application of the 20% TAC change constraint.

Basis of the advice

Advice basis Joint Norwegian-Russian Fisheries Commission management plan
Management plan

At the 46th meeting of the Joint Norwegian-Russian Fisheries Commission (JNRFC) in October 2016, the previously used management plan was amended, and the current plan is as follows:

The TAC is calculated as the average catch predicted for the coming 3 years, using the target level of exploitation (F tr ).

The target level of exploitation is calculated according to the spawning-stock biomass (SSB) in the first year of the forecast as follows: - if SSB < Bpa , then Ftr = SSB / Bpa  × FMSY ; - if Bpa ≤ SSB ≤ 2×Bpa , then  Ftr  = FMSY ; - if 2 × Bpa < SSB < 3 × Bpa , then Ftr  = FMSY  × (1 + 0.5 × (SSB – 2 × Bpa ) / Bpa ); - if SSB ≥ 3 × Bpa , then Ftr  = 1.5 × FMSY ; where FMSY  = 0.40 and Bpa  = 460 000 tonnes.

If the spawning-stock biomass in the present year, the previous year, and each of the three years of prediction is above Bpa , the TAC should not be changed by more than ±20% compared with the previous year’s TAC. In this case, Ftr should however not be below 0.30. In 2014, JNRFC decided that from 2015 onwards, Norway and Russia can transfer to or borrow from the following year up to 10% of the country's quota. In 2021, this was increased to 15% as an extraordinary measure for transfers between 2021 and 2022 only. ICES evaluated this harvest control rule in 2016 (ICES, 2016) and 2021 (ICES, 2021) and concluded that it is precautionary.

Table 3 Cod in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). The basis of the advice.

Quality of the assessment

After the 2021 benchmark, the assessment has been fairly consistent from year to year. Recruitment predictions in recent years have been overestimates.

 

Historic retrospective pattern
Figure 2 Cod in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Historical assessment results. There was a benchmark revision in 2021. The shaded areas indicate the 95% confidence intervals for the 2023 assessment.

 

Issues relevant for the advice

Due to the temporary suspension of Russian scientists from ICES, this assessment was as in 2022 conducted by a Joint Russian-Norwegian Arctic Fisheries Working Group (JRN-AFWG) consisting of scientists from VNIRO (Russia) and IMR (Norway) (Howell et al., 2023).

This advice has been conducted outside ICES and should not be considered as ICES advice. However, this assessment and advice has been produced following the methodology agreed at the ICES benchmark in 2021 (ICES, 2021).

Fisheries targeting Northeast Arctic (NEA) cod take as bycatch a considerable part of the total golden redfish ( Sebastes norvegicus) catch, and the bycatch of the latter species is still above any sustainable catch level. Measures to minimize bycatch levels are essential.

Bycatch of coastal cod should be kept as low as possible in order to avoid overfishing of the coastal cod ( Gadus morhua ) stocks.

The 2022 data from the ecosystem survey were not included due to incomplete spatial coverage and poor synopticity.

The advice this year is considerably lower than last year due to the declining trend in stock size which is confirmed by low survey indices and below average recruitment to the stock.

Recruitment has been below average after the 2014 year class. The medium-term predictions for 2025 and following years indicate that a further 20% reduction in catch from 2024 to 2025 will be advised and then catches will stabilize around 350 000 tonnes and stock size will also stabilize around 1.3 million tonnes. However, SSB is now approaching Bpa , below which level recruitment may be impaired. Should SSB fall below Bpa , then according to the management plan the 20 % stability constraint on the advised quota will no longer be applied.

Reference points

Framework Reference point Value Technical basis Source
MSY approach MSY Btrigger 460 000 t B pa , and trigger point in HCR ICES (2003, 2021)
FMSY range 0.40 – 0.60 Long-term simulations ICES (2003, 2021)
Precautionary approach Blim 220 000 t Change point regression ICES (2003, 2021)
B pa 460 000 t The lowest SSB estimate having >90% probability of remaining above B lim ICES (2003, 2021 )
Flim 0.74 F corresponding to an equilibrium stock = B lim ICES (2003, 2021)
Fpa 0.40 The highest F estimate having >90% probability of remaining below F lim ICES (2003, 2021)
Management plan SSBmgt 460 000 t Two-step (double hockey-stick) HCR, see Table 3 ICES (2017)
Fmgt 0.40 – 0.60 Two-step (double hockey-stick) HCR, see Table 3 ICES (2017)
Table 4 Cod in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Reference points, values, and their technical basis.

Basis of the assessment

ICES stock data category 1
Assessment type Age-based analytical assessment (SAM) that uses catches in the model and in the forecast.
Input data Commercial catches (international landings, ages and length frequencies from catch sampling); four survey indices (Joint bottom trawl survey Barents Sea, Jan–Mar; Joint acoustic survey Barents Sea and Lofoten, Feb–Mar; Russian bottom trawl survey, October–December; Joint Ecosystem survey); annual maturity data from the four surveys; natural mortalities from annual stomach sampling.
Discards and bycatch Discarding is considered negligible in recent years (below 5%). Bycatch is included.
Indicators None.
Other information The methodology of assessment adopted by the last ICES benchmark for the stock in February 2021 (ICES, 2021) was followed.
Working group Joint Russian-Norwegian Arctic Fisheries Working Group (JRN-AFWG).
Table 5 Cod in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Basis of the assessment and advice.

History of the advice, catch, and management

Year ICES advice Catch corresponding to advice Agreed TAC Official catches Unreported landings (included in ICES catches) ICES catches
1987 Gradual reduction in F 595000 560000 552000   523071
1988 F = 0.51; TAC (Advice November 1987, revised advice May 1988) 530000 (320000–360000) 590000 (451000) 459000   434939
1989 Large reduction in F 335000 300000 348000   332481
1990 F at Flow; TAC 172000 160000 210000 25000 212000
1991 F at Flow; TAC 215000 215000 294000 50000 319158
1992 Within safe biological limits 250000 356000 421000 130000 513234
1993 Healthy stock 256000 500000 575000 50000 581611
1994 No long-term gains in increased F 649000 700000 795000 25000 771086
1995 No long-term gains in increased F 681000 700000 763000   739999
1996 No long-term gains in increased F 746000 700000 759000   732228
1997 Well below Fmed < 993000 850000 792000   762403
1998 F less than Fmed 514000 654000 615000   592624
1999 Reduce F to below Fpa 360000 480000 506000   484910
2000 Increase B above Bpa in 2001 110000 390000     414870
2001 High probability of SSB> Bpa in 2003 263000 395000     426471
2002 Reduce F to well below 0.25 181000 395000   90000 535045
2003 Reduce F to below Fpa 305000 395000   115000 551990
2004 Reduce F to below Fpa 398000 486000   117000 606445
2005 Take into account coastal cod and redfish bycatches. Apply catch rule. 485000 485000   166000 641276
2006 Take into account coastal cod and redfish bycatches. Apply amended catch rule. 471000 471000   67100 537642
2007 Take into account coastal cod and redfish bycatches. Fpa 309000 424000   41087 486883
2008 Take into account coastal cod and redfish bycatches. Apply catch rule. 409000 430000   15000 464171
2009 Take into account coastal cod and redfish bycatches. Apply catch rule. 473000 525000   0 523431
2010 Take into account coastal cod and redfish bycatches. Apply catch rule. 577500 607000   0 609983
2011 Take into account coastal cod and redfish bycatches. Apply catch rule. 703000 703000   0 719829
2012 Take into account coastal cod and redfish bycatches. Apply catch rule. 751000 751000   0 727663
2013 Take into account coastal cod and S. marinus ^^ bycatches. Apply catch rule. 940000 1000000   0 966209
2014 Take into account coastal cod and S. marinus^^ bycatches. Apply catch rule. 993000 993000   0 986449
2015 Take into account coastal cod and S. norvegicus bycatches. Apply catch rule. 894000 894000   0 864384
2016 Take into account coastal cod and S. norvegicus bycatches. Apply catch rule. 805000 894000   0 849422
2017 Take into account coastal cod and S. norvegicus bycatches. Apply management plan. 805000 890000 ^   0 868276
2018 Take into account coastal cod and S. norvegicus bycatches. Apply management plan. 712000 775000   0 778627
2019 Take into account coastal cod and S. norvegicus bycatches. Apply management plan. 674678 725000   0 692609
2020 Apply management plan 689672 738000   0 692903
2021 Apply management plan 885600 885600   0 767284^^^
2022 Apply management plan 708480 708480   0 719211^^^
2023 Apply management plan^^^ 566784 566784      
2024 Apply management plan^^^ 453427        
Table 6 Cod in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). ICES advice, agreed TACs, the official and unreported landings, and ICES catches. All weights are in tonnes.

^ The 2017 TAC was set according to the management plan agreed by JNRFC in October 2016.
^^ Until 2014 this species was named Sebastes marinus , thereafter Sebastes norvegicus.
^^^ In 2022 and 2023 assessment and advice was carried out by the Joint Russian-Norwegian Arctic Fisheries working group (JRN-AFWG) which compiled catches for 2021 and 2022 and gave advice for 2023 and 2024.

History of catch and landings

Year Faroe Islands France German Dem.Rep. Fed.Rep. Germany Greenland Iceland Norway Poland United Kingdom Russia** Spain Others Total
1961 3934 13755 3921 8129     268377 -   158113 325780   1212 783221
1962 3109 20482 1532 6503     225615 -   175020 476760   245 909266
1963 - 18318 129 4223     205056 108   129779 417964   - 775577
1964 - 8634 297 3202     149878 -   94549 180550   585 437695
1965 - 526 91 3670     197085 -   89962 152780   816 444930
1966 - 2967 228 4284     203792 -   103012 169300   121 483704
1967 - 664 45 3632     218910 -   87008 262340   6 572605
1968 - - 225 1073     255611 -   140387 676758   - 1074084
1969 29374 - 5907 5543     305241 7856   231066 612215   133 1197226
1970 26265 44245 12413 9451     377606 5153   181481 276632   - 933246
1971 5877 34772 4998 9726     407044 1512   80102 144802   215 689048
1972 1393 8915 1300 3405     394181 892   58382 96653   166 565287
1973 1916 17028 4684 16751     285184 843   78808 387196   276 792686
1974 5717 46028 4860 78507     287276 9898   90894 540801   38453 1102434
1975 11309 28734 9981 30037     277099 7435   101843 343580   19368 829377
1976 11511 20941 8946 24369     344502 6986   89061 343057   18090 867463
1977 9167 15414 3463 12763     388982 1084   86781 369876   17771 905301
1978 9092 9394 3029 5434     363088 566   35449 267138   5525 698715
1979 6320 3046 547 2513     294821 15   17991 105846   9439 440538
1980 9981 1705 233 1921     232242 3   10366 115194   8789 380434
1981 12825 3106 298 2228     277818     5262 83000 14500 - 399037
1982 11998 761 302 1717     287525     6601 40311 14515 - 363730
1983 11106 126 473 1243     234000     5840 22975 14229 - 289992
1984 10674 11 686 1010     230743     3663 22256 8608 - 277651
1985 13418 23 1019 4395     211065     3335 62489 7846 4330 307920
1986 18667 591 1543 10092     232096     7581 150541 5497 3505 430113
1987 15036 1 986 7035     268004     10957 202314 16223 2515 523071
1988 15329 2551 605 2803     223412     8107 169365 10905 1862 434939
1989 15625 3231 326 3291     158684     7056 134593 7802 1273 332481
1990 9584 592 169 1437     88737     3412 74609 7950 510 187000
1991 8981 975   2613     126226     3981 119427*** 3677 3278 269158
1992 11663 2   3911 3337   168460     6120 182315 6217 1209 383234
1993 17435 3572   5887 5389 9374 221051     11336 244860 8800 3907 531611
1994 22826 1962   8283 6882 36737 318395     15579 291925 14929 28568 746086
1995 22262 4912   7428 7462 34214 319987     16329 296158 15505 15742 739999
1996 17758 5352   8326 6529 23005 319158     16061 305317 15871 14851 732228
1997 20076 5353   6680 6426 4200 357825     18066 313344 17130 13303 762403
1998 14290 1197   3841 6388 1423 284647     14294 244115 14212 8217 592624
1999 13700 2137   3019 4093 1985 223390     11315 210379 8994 5898 484910
2000 13350 2621   3513 5787 7562 192860     9165 166202 8695 5115 414870
2001 12500 2681   4524 5727 5917 188431     8698 183572 9196 5225 426471
2002 15693 2934   4517 6419 5975 202559     8977 184072 8414 5484 445045
2003 19427 2921   4732 7026 5963 191977     8711 182160 7924 6149 436990
2004 19226 3621   6187 8196 7201 212117     14004 201525 11285 6082 489445
2005 16273 3491   5848 8135 5874 207825     10744 200077 9349 7660 475276
2006 16327 4376   3837 8164 5972 201987     10594 203782 9219 6271 470527
2007 14788 3190   4619 5951 7316 199809     9298 186229 9496 5101 445796
2008 15812 3149   4955 5617 7535 196598     8287 190225 9658 7336 449171
2009 16905 3908   8585 4977 7380 224298     8632 229291 12013 7442 523431
2010 15977 4499   8442 6584 11299 264701     9091 267547 12657 9185 609983
2011 13429 1173   4621 7155 12734 331535     8210 310326 13291 17354^ 719829
2012 17523 2841   8500 8520 9536 315739     11166 329943 12814 11081 727663
2013 13833 7858   8010 7885 14734 438734     12536 432314 15042 15263 966209
2014 33298 8149   6225 10864 18205 431846     14762 433479 16378 13243 986449
2015 26568 7480   6427 7055 16120 377983     11778 381778 19905 9880 864384
2016 24084 7946   6336 8607 16031 348949     13583 394107 14640 15139 849422
2017 28637 9554   5977 13638 11925 357419     16731 396180 14414 13802 868276
2018 26152 6605   9768 12743 10708 333539     11533 340364 13143 14071 778627
2019 22270 6371   8470 7553 12294 282120     11214 316813 13939 11565 692609
2020 21679 5796   9725 7391 9734 289472     12113 312683 11403 12908 692903
2021 21767 4459   6190 8246 8933 337931     5426 352064 11080 11188 767284^^
2022* 21530 4988   7134 7688 6214 310145     7024 333697 12214 8577 719211^^
Table 7 Cod in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). History of commercial landings by country. All weights are in tonnes.

* Provisional figures
** USSR prior to 1991.
*** Includes Baltic countries.
^ Includes unspecified EU catches.
^^ In 2022 and 2023 assessment and advice was carried out by the Joint Russian-Norwegian Arctic Fisheries working group (JRN-AFWG) which compiled catches for 2021 and 2022 and gave advice for 2023 and 2024.

Summary of the assessment

Year Recruitment Spawning-stock biomass Total catch Fishing mortality
Recruitment (Age 3) Low High SSB Low High F (ages 5–10) Low High
thousands Tonnes tonnes
1946 1131733 781426 1639078 952756 800517 1133947 706000 0.25 0.21 0.297
1947 589231 412364 841960 903304 767137 1063639 882017 0.309 0.268 0.357
1948 449846 312706 647128 785151 662274 930827 774295 0.348 0.303 0.4
1949 626523 442032 888016 595159 511249 692840 800122 0.369 0.323 0.422
1950 1024221 725123 1446690 536002 470975 610007 731982 0.382 0.335 0.436
1951 2407714 1708528 3393032 495064 440346 556581 827180 0.413 0.363 0.469
1952 2328597 1666298 3254138 488824 431608 553625 876795 0.459 0.404 0.522
1953 2402267 1722497 3350304 412181 361649 469774 695546 0.412 0.362 0.468
1954 833170 598061 1160703 408246 361032 461635 826021 0.438 0.386 0.497
1955 385036 276191 536778 328014 294465 365385 1147841 0.519 0.46 0.585
1956 750321 539501 1043523 281300 253788 311795 1343068 0.57 0.505 0.643
1957 1431458 1031662 1986186 212225 191029 235773 792557 0.528 0.468 0.595
1958 929503 672056 1285573 205350 182986 230448 769313 0.526 0.467 0.591
1959 1312954 952699 1809437 434392 385395 489618 744607 0.546 0.486 0.613
1960 1476784 1071422 2035511 384764 338846 436904 622042 0.539 0.479 0.606
1961 1544518 1119487 2130919 386646 343405 435331 783221 0.634 0.568 0.707
1962 1247843 903580 1723271 315444 283722 350713 909266 0.743 0.666 0.827
1963 907862 653790 1260669 216030 194731 239659 776337 0.815 0.727 0.914
1964 473547 338597 662283 200204 179696 223053 437695 0.678 0.606 0.758
1965 878677 630292 1224945 107974 96100 121315 444930 0.578 0.514 0.65
1966 1839953 1327238 2550732 121031 108952 134449 483711 0.548 0.487 0.616
1967 1308974 944125 1814816 128774 115835 143159 572605 0.556 0.494 0.625
1968 182936 131716 254074 223025 203117 244884 1074084 0.599 0.536 0.67
1969 111045 79892 154347 148985 134427 165120 1197226 0.71 0.635 0.792
1970 206796 148561 287857 242030 218197 268466 933246 0.698 0.625 0.779
1971 406737 293540 563586 330272 293895 371152 689048 0.646 0.577 0.723
1972 1052751 765031 1448681 353277 311941 400090 565254 0.659 0.587 0.739
1973 1700149 1229756 2350472 334102 290855 383779 792685 0.627 0.56 0.703
1974 565981 414583 772666 158993 135790 186160 1102433 0.611 0.546 0.685
1975 610161 446588 833648 133549 119560 149175 829377 0.658 0.591 0.732
1976 599582 436054 824436 167188 151704 184253 867463 0.705 0.635 0.783
1977 372307 273059 507629 336002 299922 376423 905301 0.817 0.736 0.907
1978 621548 454061 850816 227858 199872 259761 698715 0.855 0.77 0.95
1979 204031 149163 279081 180352 157650 206324 440538 0.772 0.693 0.859
1980 131519 98463 175674 108439 96843 121423 380434 0.76 0.684 0.845
1981 144577 110226 189635 161362 146224 178068 399038 0.793 0.715 0.879
1982 181947 141264 234346 321353 288699 357700 363730 0.774 0.699 0.857
1983 140981 109477 181550 311520 280575 345878 289992 0.791 0.715 0.874
1984 443366 347905 565021 243628 222591 266654 277651 0.868 0.786 0.958
1985 529829 425095 660367 195463 178630 213881 307920 0.809 0.733 0.894
1986 1369810 1087193 1725895 164102 150226 179259 430113 0.873 0.793 0.962
1987 357271 283078 450909 115111 104735 126515 523071 0.928 0.842 1.023
1988 334096 265195 420897 191558 173316 211720 434939 0.884 0.793 0.986
1989 158520 127033 197810 237290 212684 264742 332481 0.667 0.594 0.749
1990 132388 104361 167942 303044 266322 344828 212000 0.422 0.366 0.487
1991 298599 236478 377039 636493 565917 715869 319158 0.407 0.357 0.464
1992 714479 573702 889802 804452 723148 894898 513234 0.485 0.433 0.544
1993 988559 794000 1230793 701423 635092 774681 581611 0.586 0.526 0.652
1994 749508 601265 934300 570797 521257 625045 771086 0.747 0.673 0.83
1995 537661 431639 669725 533335 486300 584919 739999 0.771 0.697 0.854
1996 402269 321983 502573 550636 497293 609701 732228 0.791 0.714 0.876
1997 777417 621950 971746 545650 488212 609845 762403 0.937 0.851 1.032
1998 1048459 836046 1314841 385769 345766 430401 592624 0.941 0.855 1.035
1999 626609 499228 786493 280600 252500 311828 484910 0.939 0.853 1.032
2000 747832 598408 934569 255331 233975 278637 414868 0.848 0.768 0.936
2001 591465 473742 738441 383395 347133 423445 426471 0.739 0.666 0.82
2002 374563 300534 466828 520889 471374 575605 535045 0.679 0.612 0.754
2003 757474 609542 941308 571223 518205 629664 551990 0.634 0.569 0.705
2004 242780 198236 297334 665197 604504 731983 606445 0.707 0.637 0.785
2005 694272 565628 852175 578178 526828 634532 641276 0.711 0.638 0.793
2006 538504 438414 661446 581768 530654 637805 537642 0.61 0.543 0.684
2007 1254871 1016429 1549250 647938 587310 714824 486883 0.443 0.392 0.501
2008 1016970 818493 1263575 718024 651175 791736 464171 0.362 0.318 0.411
2009 590980 474494 736061 1008860 916837 1110118 523430 0.308 0.269 0.352
2010 205517 160601 262996 1239289 1124664 1365596 609983 0.292 0.256 0.334
2011 363991 286985 461659 1798145 1625479 1989153 719830 0.309 0.269 0.353
2012 510052 408859 636292 2016129 1816113 2238173 727663 0.291 0.254 0.334
2013 471175 373624 594197 2238973 2008666 2495686 966209 0.317 0.278 0.362
2014 854919 683245 1069728 2123627 1894193 2380852 986449 0.335 0.294 0.382
2015 452525 365146 560813 1714210 1518318 1935376 864384 0.334 0.295 0.38
2016 285806 228500 357483 1370535 1213588 1547780 849422 0.354 0.312 0.402
2017 770881 619270 959609 1395722 1255582 1551503 868276 0.387 0.342 0.439
2018 492321 386933 626414 1258206 1134927 1394875 778627 0.403 0.355 0.458
2019 635422 502979 802738 1198577 1074802 1336606 692609 0.419 0.369 0.476
2020 540952 421568 694146 964937 859377 1083463 692903 0.465 0.406 0.533
2021 386652 292436 511222 835773 733382 952460 767284 0.545 0.462 0.643
2022 197418 139406 279570 711549 592344 854745 719211 0.574 0.46 0.716
2023 446000*     718754 540782 955296        
Table 8 Cod in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Assessment summary. High and low refer to 95% confidence bounds.

* Recruitment model estimate.

References

Howell et al. 2023. Report of the Joint Russian-Norwegian Working Group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG) 2023. IMR-PINRO no.7-2023.

ICES. 2003. Report of the Study Group on Biological Reference Points for Northeast Arctic Cod, 13–17 January 2003,

Svanhovd, Norway. ICES CM 2003/ACFM:11. 39 pp.

ICES. 2016. Report of the second Workshop on Management Plan Evaluation on Northeast Arctic cod and haddock and Barents Sea capelin (WKNEAMP-2) , 25-28 January 2016, Kirkenes, Norway. ICES CM 2016/ACOM:47, 76 pp.

ICES. 2017. Report of the Arctic Fisheries Working Group (AFWG), 19–25 April 2017, ICES HQ, Copenhagen, Denmark. ICES CM 2017/ACOM:06. 493 pp.

ICES. 2021. Benchmark Workshop for Barents Sea and Faroese Stocks (WKBARFAR 2021).

ICES Scientific Reports. 3:21. 205 pp. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.7920

1

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Advice on fishing opportunities for Northeast Arctic cod in 2024 in ICES subareas 1 and 2

Stock Name: Northeast Arctic cod (ICES areas 1 and 2)

Advice on fishing opportunities

The Joint Russian-Norwegian Arctic Fisheries Working Group (JRN-AFWG) advises that when the Joint Norwegian–Russian Fisheries Commission management plan is applied, catches in 2024 should be no more than 453 427 tonnes.

Stock development over time

Fishing pressure on the stock is between Fpa and Flim and within the F mgt range and spawning-stock size is above Bpa and Blim and between the lower and middle breakpoints (SSBmgt values) in the harvest control rule.

Figure 1
Figure 1 Cod in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Catch, recruitment, F, SSB and TSB (total stock biomass, age 3+) with 95 % confidence levels. The biomass reference points relate to SSB. For this stock, Fmgt ranges from 0.40 to 0.60, and there are three SSB mgt values (460 000, 920 000 and 1 380 000 tonnes).

Catch scenarios

Variable Value Notes
F ages 5–10 (2023) 0.574 Fsq =F2022. From assessment
SSB (2024) 587 836 From assessment
R age 3 (2023) 446 000 From recruitment model
R age 3 (2024) 409 000 From recruitment model
R age 3 (2025) 239 000 From recruitment model
Total catch (2023) 572 800 Corresponding to Fsq
Table 1 Cod in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Assumptions made for the interim year and in the forecast. SSB, catch in tonnes, and recruitment in thousands.
Basis Total catch (2024) F5-10 (2024) SSB(2025) % SSB change* % TAC change** % Advice change***
ICES advice basis  
Management plan^ 453 427 0.540 506 615 -14 -20 -20
Other options  
F = 0 .40**** 357 377 0.40 586 401 0 -37 -37
F = 0 0 0 900 153 53 -100 -100
F = F2022 475 016 0.574 489 013 -17 -16 -16
Fpa 357 377 0.40 586 401 0 -37 -37
Flim 571 054 0.74 412 367 -30 1 1
Table 2 Cod in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Annual catch options. All weights are in tonnes.

* SSB 2025 relative to SSB 2024.
** Advice for 2024 relative to TAC for 2023 (566 784 tonnes).
*** Advice for 2024 relative to advice for 2023.
**** F = 0.40 corresponds to the lower bound of the F MSY range (0.40-0.60).

^ Since SSB in 2024 is between Bpa = 460 000 tonnes and 2 × Bpa = 920 000 tonnes, F = 0.40 is used in the 3-year prediction, giving catches of 357 377, 354 196 and 355 390 tonnes in 2024, 2025 and 2026, respectively. The average of this is 355 655 tonnes. According to the harvest control rule (HCR), the maximum decrease in TAC is limited by 20%, giving a catch of 453 427 tonnes, which corresponds to an F of 0.540 in 2024.

The advice for 2024 is 20 % lower than the advice for 2023 due to a declining stock trend and the application of the 20% TAC change constraint.

Basis of the advice

Advice basis Joint Norwegian-Russian Fisheries Commission management plan
Management plan

At the 46th meeting of the Joint Norwegian-Russian Fisheries Commission (JNRFC) in October 2016, the previously used management plan was amended, and the current plan is as follows:

The TAC is calculated as the average catch predicted for the coming 3 years, using the target level of exploitation (F tr ).

The target level of exploitation is calculated according to the spawning-stock biomass (SSB) in the first year of the forecast as follows: - if SSB < Bpa , then Ftr = SSB / Bpa  × FMSY ; - if Bpa ≤ SSB ≤ 2×Bpa , then  Ftr  = FMSY ; - if 2 × Bpa < SSB < 3 × Bpa , then Ftr  = FMSY  × (1 + 0.5 × (SSB – 2 × Bpa ) / Bpa ); - if SSB ≥ 3 × Bpa , then Ftr  = 1.5 × FMSY ; where FMSY  = 0.40 and Bpa  = 460 000 tonnes.

If the spawning-stock biomass in the present year, the previous year, and each of the three years of prediction is above Bpa , the TAC should not be changed by more than ±20% compared with the previous year’s TAC. In this case, Ftr should however not be below 0.30. In 2014, JNRFC decided that from 2015 onwards, Norway and Russia can transfer to or borrow from the following year up to 10% of the country's quota. In 2021, this was increased to 15% as an extraordinary measure for transfers between 2021 and 2022 only. ICES evaluated this harvest control rule in 2016 (ICES, 2016) and 2021 (ICES, 2021) and concluded that it is precautionary.

Table 3 Cod in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). The basis of the advice.

Quality of the assessment

After the 2021 benchmark, the assessment has been fairly consistent from year to year. Recruitment predictions in recent years have been overestimates.

 

Historic retrospective pattern
Figure 2 Cod in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Historical assessment results. There was a benchmark revision in 2021. The shaded areas indicate the 95% confidence intervals for the 2023 assessment.

 

Issues relevant for the advice

Due to the temporary suspension of Russian scientists from ICES, this assessment was as in 2022 conducted by a Joint Russian-Norwegian Arctic Fisheries Working Group (JRN-AFWG) consisting of scientists from VNIRO (Russia) and IMR (Norway) (Howell et al., 2023).

This advice has been conducted outside ICES and should not be considered as ICES advice. However, this assessment and advice has been produced following the methodology agreed at the ICES benchmark in 2021 (ICES, 2021).

Fisheries targeting Northeast Arctic (NEA) cod take as bycatch a considerable part of the total golden redfish ( Sebastes norvegicus) catch, and the bycatch of the latter species is still above any sustainable catch level. Measures to minimize bycatch levels are essential.

Bycatch of coastal cod should be kept as low as possible in order to avoid overfishing of the coastal cod ( Gadus morhua ) stocks.

The 2022 data from the ecosystem survey were not included due to incomplete spatial coverage and poor synopticity.

The advice this year is considerably lower than last year due to the declining trend in stock size which is confirmed by low survey indices and below average recruitment to the stock.

Recruitment has been below average after the 2014 year class. The medium-term predictions for 2025 and following years indicate that a further 20% reduction in catch from 2024 to 2025 will be advised and then catches will stabilize around 350 000 tonnes and stock size will also stabilize around 1.3 million tonnes. However, SSB is now approaching Bpa , below which level recruitment may be impaired. Should SSB fall below Bpa , then according to the management plan the 20 % stability constraint on the advised quota will no longer be applied.

Reference points

Framework Reference point Value Technical basis Source
MSY approach MSY Btrigger 460 000 t B pa , and trigger point in HCR ICES (2003, 2021)
FMSY range 0.40 – 0.60 Long-term simulations ICES (2003, 2021)
Precautionary approach Blim 220 000 t Change point regression ICES (2003, 2021)
B pa 460 000 t The lowest SSB estimate having >90% probability of remaining above B lim ICES (2003, 2021 )
Flim 0.74 F corresponding to an equilibrium stock = B lim ICES (2003, 2021)
Fpa 0.40 The highest F estimate having >90% probability of remaining below F lim ICES (2003, 2021)
Management plan SSBmgt 460 000 t Two-step (double hockey-stick) HCR, see Table 3 ICES (2017)
Fmgt 0.40 – 0.60 Two-step (double hockey-stick) HCR, see Table 3 ICES (2017)
Table 4 Cod in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Reference points, values, and their technical basis.

Basis of the assessment

ICES stock data category 1
Assessment type Age-based analytical assessment (SAM) that uses catches in the model and in the forecast.
Input data Commercial catches (international landings, ages and length frequencies from catch sampling); four survey indices (Joint bottom trawl survey Barents Sea, Jan–Mar; Joint acoustic survey Barents Sea and Lofoten, Feb–Mar; Russian bottom trawl survey, October–December; Joint Ecosystem survey); annual maturity data from the four surveys; natural mortalities from annual stomach sampling.
Discards and bycatch Discarding is considered negligible in recent years (below 5%). Bycatch is included.
Indicators None.
Other information The methodology of assessment adopted by the last ICES benchmark for the stock in February 2021 (ICES, 2021) was followed.
Working group Joint Russian-Norwegian Arctic Fisheries Working Group (JRN-AFWG).
Table 5 Cod in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Basis of the assessment and advice.

History of the advice, catch, and management

Year ICES advice Catch corresponding to advice Agreed TAC Official catches Unreported landings (included in ICES catches) ICES catches
1987 Gradual reduction in F 595000 560000 552000   523071
1988 F = 0.51; TAC (Advice November 1987, revised advice May 1988) 530000 (320000–360000) 590000 (451000) 459000   434939
1989 Large reduction in F 335000 300000 348000   332481
1990 F at Flow; TAC 172000 160000 210000 25000 212000
1991 F at Flow; TAC 215000 215000 294000 50000 319158
1992 Within safe biological limits 250000 356000 421000 130000 513234
1993 Healthy stock 256000 500000 575000 50000 581611
1994 No long-term gains in increased F 649000 700000 795000 25000 771086
1995 No long-term gains in increased F 681000 700000 763000   739999
1996 No long-term gains in increased F 746000 700000 759000   732228
1997 Well below Fmed < 993000 850000 792000   762403
1998 F less than Fmed 514000 654000 615000   592624
1999 Reduce F to below Fpa 360000 480000 506000   484910
2000 Increase B above Bpa in 2001 110000 390000     414870
2001 High probability of SSB> Bpa in 2003 263000 395000     426471
2002 Reduce F to well below 0.25 181000 395000   90000 535045
2003 Reduce F to below Fpa 305000 395000   115000 551990
2004 Reduce F to below Fpa 398000 486000   117000 606445
2005 Take into account coastal cod and redfish bycatches. Apply catch rule. 485000 485000   166000 641276
2006 Take into account coastal cod and redfish bycatches. Apply amended catch rule. 471000 471000   67100 537642
2007 Take into account coastal cod and redfish bycatches. Fpa 309000 424000   41087 486883
2008 Take into account coastal cod and redfish bycatches. Apply catch rule. 409000 430000   15000 464171
2009 Take into account coastal cod and redfish bycatches. Apply catch rule. 473000 525000   0 523431
2010 Take into account coastal cod and redfish bycatches. Apply catch rule. 577500 607000   0 609983
2011 Take into account coastal cod and redfish bycatches. Apply catch rule. 703000 703000   0 719829
2012 Take into account coastal cod and redfish bycatches. Apply catch rule. 751000 751000   0 727663
2013 Take into account coastal cod and S. marinus ^^ bycatches. Apply catch rule. 940000 1000000   0 966209
2014 Take into account coastal cod and S. marinus^^ bycatches. Apply catch rule. 993000 993000   0 986449
2015 Take into account coastal cod and S. norvegicus bycatches. Apply catch rule. 894000 894000   0 864384
2016 Take into account coastal cod and S. norvegicus bycatches. Apply catch rule. 805000 894000   0 849422
2017 Take into account coastal cod and S. norvegicus bycatches. Apply management plan. 805000 890000 ^   0 868276
2018 Take into account coastal cod and S. norvegicus bycatches. Apply management plan. 712000 775000   0 778627
2019 Take into account coastal cod and S. norvegicus bycatches. Apply management plan. 674678 725000   0 692609
2020 Apply management plan 689672 738000   0 692903
2021 Apply management plan 885600 885600   0 767284^^^
2022 Apply management plan 708480 708480   0 719211^^^
2023 Apply management plan^^^ 566784 566784      
2024 Apply management plan^^^ 453427        
Table 6 Cod in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). ICES advice, agreed TACs, the official and unreported landings, and ICES catches. All weights are in tonnes.

^ The 2017 TAC was set according to the management plan agreed by JNRFC in October 2016.
^^ Until 2014 this species was named Sebastes marinus , thereafter Sebastes norvegicus.
^^^ In 2022 and 2023 assessment and advice was carried out by the Joint Russian-Norwegian Arctic Fisheries working group (JRN-AFWG) which compiled catches for 2021 and 2022 and gave advice for 2023 and 2024.

History of catch and landings

Year Faroe Islands France German Dem.Rep. Fed.Rep. Germany Greenland Iceland Norway Poland United Kingdom Russia** Spain Others Total
1961 3934 13755 3921 8129     268377 -   158113 325780   1212 783221
1962 3109 20482 1532 6503     225615 -   175020 476760   245 909266
1963 - 18318 129 4223     205056 108   129779 417964   - 775577
1964 - 8634 297 3202     149878 -   94549 180550   585 437695
1965 - 526 91 3670     197085 -   89962 152780   816 444930
1966 - 2967 228 4284     203792 -   103012 169300   121 483704
1967 - 664 45 3632     218910 -   87008 262340   6 572605
1968 - - 225 1073     255611 -   140387 676758   - 1074084
1969 29374 - 5907 5543     305241 7856   231066 612215   133 1197226
1970 26265 44245 12413 9451     377606 5153   181481 276632   - 933246
1971 5877 34772 4998 9726     407044 1512   80102 144802   215 689048
1972 1393 8915 1300 3405     394181 892   58382 96653   166 565287
1973 1916 17028 4684 16751     285184 843   78808 387196   276 792686
1974 5717 46028 4860 78507     287276 9898   90894 540801   38453 1102434
1975 11309 28734 9981 30037     277099 7435   101843 343580   19368 829377
1976 11511 20941 8946 24369     344502 6986   89061 343057   18090 867463
1977 9167 15414 3463 12763     388982 1084   86781 369876   17771 905301
1978 9092 9394 3029 5434     363088 566   35449 267138   5525 698715
1979 6320 3046 547 2513     294821 15   17991 105846   9439 440538
1980 9981 1705 233 1921     232242 3   10366 115194   8789 380434
1981 12825 3106 298 2228     277818     5262 83000 14500 - 399037
1982 11998 761 302 1717     287525     6601 40311 14515 - 363730
1983 11106 126 473 1243     234000     5840 22975 14229 - 289992
1984 10674 11 686 1010     230743     3663 22256 8608 - 277651
1985 13418 23 1019 4395     211065     3335 62489 7846 4330 307920
1986 18667 591 1543 10092     232096     7581 150541 5497 3505 430113
1987 15036 1 986 7035     268004     10957 202314 16223 2515 523071
1988 15329 2551 605 2803     223412     8107 169365 10905 1862 434939
1989 15625 3231 326 3291     158684     7056 134593 7802 1273 332481
1990 9584 592 169 1437     88737     3412 74609 7950 510 187000
1991 8981 975   2613     126226     3981 119427*** 3677 3278 269158
1992 11663 2   3911 3337   168460     6120 182315 6217 1209 383234
1993 17435 3572   5887 5389 9374 221051     11336 244860 8800 3907 531611
1994 22826 1962   8283 6882 36737 318395     15579 291925 14929 28568 746086
1995 22262 4912   7428 7462 34214 319987     16329 296158 15505 15742 739999
1996 17758 5352   8326 6529 23005 319158     16061 305317 15871 14851 732228
1997 20076 5353   6680 6426 4200 357825     18066 313344 17130 13303 762403
1998 14290 1197   3841 6388 1423 284647     14294 244115 14212 8217 592624
1999 13700 2137   3019 4093 1985 223390     11315 210379 8994 5898 484910
2000 13350 2621   3513 5787 7562 192860     9165 166202 8695 5115 414870
2001 12500 2681   4524 5727 5917 188431     8698 183572 9196 5225 426471
2002 15693 2934   4517 6419 5975 202559     8977 184072 8414 5484 445045
2003 19427 2921   4732 7026 5963 191977     8711 182160 7924 6149 436990
2004 19226 3621   6187 8196 7201 212117     14004 201525 11285 6082 489445
2005 16273 3491   5848 8135 5874 207825     10744 200077 9349 7660 475276
2006 16327 4376   3837 8164 5972 201987     10594 203782 9219 6271 470527
2007 14788 3190   4619 5951 7316 199809     9298 186229 9496 5101 445796
2008 15812 3149   4955 5617 7535 196598     8287 190225 9658 7336 449171
2009 16905 3908   8585 4977 7380 224298     8632 229291 12013 7442 523431
2010 15977 4499   8442 6584 11299 264701     9091 267547 12657 9185 609983
2011 13429 1173   4621 7155 12734 331535     8210 310326 13291 17354^ 719829
2012 17523 2841   8500 8520 9536 315739     11166 329943 12814 11081 727663
2013 13833 7858   8010 7885 14734 438734     12536 432314 15042 15263 966209
2014 33298 8149   6225 10864 18205 431846     14762 433479 16378 13243 986449
2015 26568 7480   6427 7055 16120 377983     11778 381778 19905 9880 864384
2016 24084 7946   6336 8607 16031 348949     13583 394107 14640 15139 849422
2017 28637 9554   5977 13638 11925 357419     16731 396180 14414 13802 868276
2018 26152 6605   9768 12743 10708 333539     11533 340364 13143 14071 778627
2019 22270 6371   8470 7553 12294 282120     11214 316813 13939 11565 692609
2020 21679 5796   9725 7391 9734 289472     12113 312683 11403 12908 692903
2021 21767 4459   6190 8246 8933 337931     5426 352064 11080 11188 767284^^
2022* 21530 4988   7134 7688 6214 310145     7024 333697 12214 8577 719211^^
Table 7 Cod in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). History of commercial landings by country. All weights are in tonnes.

* Provisional figures
** USSR prior to 1991.
*** Includes Baltic countries.
^ Includes unspecified EU catches.
^^ In 2022 and 2023 assessment and advice was carried out by the Joint Russian-Norwegian Arctic Fisheries working group (JRN-AFWG) which compiled catches for 2021 and 2022 and gave advice for 2023 and 2024.

Summary of the assessment

Year Recruitment Spawning-stock biomass Total catch Fishing mortality
Recruitment (Age 3) Low High SSB Low High F (ages 5–10) Low High
thousands Tonnes tonnes
1946 1131733 781426 1639078 952756 800517 1133947 706000 0.25 0.21 0.297
1947 589231 412364 841960 903304 767137 1063639 882017 0.309 0.268 0.357
1948 449846 312706 647128 785151 662274 930827 774295 0.348 0.303 0.4
1949 626523 442032 888016 595159 511249 692840 800122 0.369 0.323 0.422
1950 1024221 725123 1446690 536002 470975 610007 731982 0.382 0.335 0.436
1951 2407714 1708528 3393032 495064 440346 556581 827180 0.413 0.363 0.469
1952 2328597 1666298 3254138 488824 431608 553625 876795 0.459 0.404 0.522
1953 2402267 1722497 3350304 412181 361649 469774 695546 0.412 0.362 0.468
1954 833170 598061 1160703 408246 361032 461635 826021 0.438 0.386 0.497
1955 385036 276191 536778 328014 294465 365385 1147841 0.519 0.46 0.585
1956 750321 539501 1043523 281300 253788 311795 1343068 0.57 0.505 0.643
1957 1431458 1031662 1986186 212225 191029 235773 792557 0.528 0.468 0.595
1958 929503 672056 1285573 205350 182986 230448 769313 0.526 0.467 0.591
1959 1312954 952699 1809437 434392 385395 489618 744607 0.546 0.486 0.613
1960 1476784 1071422 2035511 384764 338846 436904 622042 0.539 0.479 0.606
1961 1544518 1119487 2130919 386646 343405 435331 783221 0.634 0.568 0.707
1962 1247843 903580 1723271 315444 283722 350713 909266 0.743 0.666 0.827
1963 907862 653790 1260669 216030 194731 239659 776337 0.815 0.727 0.914
1964 473547 338597 662283 200204 179696 223053 437695 0.678 0.606 0.758
1965 878677 630292 1224945 107974 96100 121315 444930 0.578 0.514 0.65
1966 1839953 1327238 2550732 121031 108952 134449 483711 0.548 0.487 0.616
1967 1308974 944125 1814816 128774 115835 143159 572605 0.556 0.494 0.625
1968 182936 131716 254074 223025 203117 244884 1074084 0.599 0.536 0.67
1969 111045 79892 154347 148985 134427 165120 1197226 0.71 0.635 0.792
1970 206796 148561 287857 242030 218197 268466 933246 0.698 0.625 0.779
1971 406737 293540 563586 330272 293895 371152 689048 0.646 0.577 0.723
1972 1052751 765031 1448681 353277 311941 400090 565254 0.659 0.587 0.739
1973 1700149 1229756 2350472 334102 290855 383779 792685 0.627 0.56 0.703
1974 565981 414583 772666 158993 135790 186160 1102433 0.611 0.546 0.685
1975 610161 446588 833648 133549 119560 149175 829377 0.658 0.591 0.732
1976 599582 436054 824436 167188 151704 184253 867463 0.705 0.635 0.783
1977 372307 273059 507629 336002 299922 376423 905301 0.817 0.736 0.907
1978 621548 454061 850816 227858 199872 259761 698715 0.855 0.77 0.95
1979 204031 149163 279081 180352 157650 206324 440538 0.772 0.693 0.859
1980 131519 98463 175674 108439 96843 121423 380434 0.76 0.684 0.845
1981 144577 110226 189635 161362 146224 178068 399038 0.793 0.715 0.879
1982 181947 141264 234346 321353 288699 357700 363730 0.774 0.699 0.857
1983 140981 109477 181550 311520 280575 345878 289992 0.791 0.715 0.874
1984 443366 347905 565021 243628 222591 266654 277651 0.868 0.786 0.958
1985 529829 425095 660367 195463 178630 213881 307920 0.809 0.733 0.894
1986 1369810 1087193 1725895 164102 150226 179259 430113 0.873 0.793 0.962
1987 357271 283078 450909 115111 104735 126515 523071 0.928 0.842 1.023
1988 334096 265195 420897 191558 173316 211720 434939 0.884 0.793 0.986
1989 158520 127033 197810 237290 212684 264742 332481 0.667 0.594 0.749
1990 132388 104361 167942 303044 266322 344828 212000 0.422 0.366 0.487
1991 298599 236478 377039 636493 565917 715869 319158 0.407 0.357 0.464
1992 714479 573702 889802 804452 723148 894898 513234 0.485 0.433 0.544
1993 988559 794000 1230793 701423 635092 774681 581611 0.586 0.526 0.652
1994 749508 601265 934300 570797 521257 625045 771086 0.747 0.673 0.83
1995 537661 431639 669725 533335 486300 584919 739999 0.771 0.697 0.854
1996 402269 321983 502573 550636 497293 609701 732228 0.791 0.714 0.876
1997 777417 621950 971746 545650 488212 609845 762403 0.937 0.851 1.032
1998 1048459 836046 1314841 385769 345766 430401 592624 0.941 0.855 1.035
1999 626609 499228 786493 280600 252500 311828 484910 0.939 0.853 1.032
2000 747832 598408 934569 255331 233975 278637 414868 0.848 0.768 0.936
2001 591465 473742 738441 383395 347133 423445 426471 0.739 0.666 0.82
2002 374563 300534 466828 520889 471374 575605 535045 0.679 0.612 0.754
2003 757474 609542 941308 571223 518205 629664 551990 0.634 0.569 0.705
2004 242780 198236 297334 665197 604504 731983 606445 0.707 0.637 0.785
2005 694272 565628 852175 578178 526828 634532 641276 0.711 0.638 0.793
2006 538504 438414 661446 581768 530654 637805 537642 0.61 0.543 0.684
2007 1254871 1016429 1549250 647938 587310 714824 486883 0.443 0.392 0.501
2008 1016970 818493 1263575 718024 651175 791736 464171 0.362 0.318 0.411
2009 590980 474494 736061 1008860 916837 1110118 523430 0.308 0.269 0.352
2010 205517 160601 262996 1239289 1124664 1365596 609983 0.292 0.256 0.334
2011 363991 286985 461659 1798145 1625479 1989153 719830 0.309 0.269 0.353
2012 510052 408859 636292 2016129 1816113 2238173 727663 0.291 0.254 0.334
2013 471175 373624 594197 2238973 2008666 2495686 966209 0.317 0.278 0.362
2014 854919 683245 1069728 2123627 1894193 2380852 986449 0.335 0.294 0.382
2015 452525 365146 560813 1714210 1518318 1935376 864384 0.334 0.295 0.38
2016 285806 228500 357483 1370535 1213588 1547780 849422 0.354 0.312 0.402
2017 770881 619270 959609 1395722 1255582 1551503 868276 0.387 0.342 0.439
2018 492321 386933 626414 1258206 1134927 1394875 778627 0.403 0.355 0.458
2019 635422 502979 802738 1198577 1074802 1336606 692609 0.419 0.369 0.476
2020 540952 421568 694146 964937 859377 1083463 692903 0.465 0.406 0.533
2021 386652 292436 511222 835773 733382 952460 767284 0.545 0.462 0.643
2022 197418 139406 279570 711549 592344 854745 719211 0.574 0.46 0.716
2023 446000*     718754 540782 955296        
Table 8 Cod in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Assessment summary. High and low refer to 95% confidence bounds.

* Recruitment model estimate.

References

Howell et al. 2023. Report of the Joint Russian-Norwegian Working Group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG) 2023. IMR-PINRO no.7-2023.

ICES. 2003. Report of the Study Group on Biological Reference Points for Northeast Arctic Cod, 13–17 January 2003,

Svanhovd, Norway. ICES CM 2003/ACFM:11. 39 pp.

ICES. 2016. Report of the second Workshop on Management Plan Evaluation on Northeast Arctic cod and haddock and Barents Sea capelin (WKNEAMP-2) , 25-28 January 2016, Kirkenes, Norway. ICES CM 2016/ACOM:47, 76 pp.

ICES. 2017. Report of the Arctic Fisheries Working Group (AFWG), 19–25 April 2017, ICES HQ, Copenhagen, Denmark. ICES CM 2017/ACOM:06. 493 pp.

ICES. 2021. Benchmark Workshop for Barents Sea and Faroese Stocks (WKBARFAR 2021).

ICES Scientific Reports. 3:21. 205 pp. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.7920

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Advice on fishing opportunities for Northeast Arctic cod in 2024 in ICES subareas 1 and 2

Stock Name: Northeast Arctic cod (ICES areas 1 and 2)

Advice on fishing opportunities

The Joint Russian-Norwegian Arctic Fisheries Working Group (JRN-AFWG) advises that when the Joint Norwegian–Russian Fisheries Commission management plan is applied, catches in 2024 should be no more than 453 427 tonnes.

Stock development over time

Fishing pressure on the stock is between Fpa and Flim and within the F mgt range and spawning-stock size is above Bpa and Blim and between the lower and middle breakpoints (SSBmgt values) in the harvest control rule.

Figure 1
Figure 1 Cod in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Catch, recruitment, F, SSB and TSB (total stock biomass, age 3+) with 95 % confidence levels. The biomass reference points relate to SSB. For this stock, Fmgt ranges from 0.40 to 0.60, and there are three SSB mgt values (460 000, 920 000 and 1 380 000 tonnes).

Catch scenarios

Variable Value Notes
F ages 5–10 (2023) 0.574 Fsq =F2022. From assessment
SSB (2024) 587 836 From assessment
R age 3 (2023) 446 000 From recruitment model
R age 3 (2024) 409 000 From recruitment model
R age 3 (2025) 239 000 From recruitment model
Total catch (2023) 572 800 Corresponding to Fsq
Table 1 Cod in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Assumptions made for the interim year and in the forecast. SSB, catch in tonnes, and recruitment in thousands.
Basis Total catch (2024) F5-10 (2024) SSB(2025) % SSB change* % TAC change** % Advice change***
ICES advice basis  
Management plan^ 453 427 0.540 506 615 -14 -20 -20
Other options  
F = 0 .40**** 357 377 0.40 586 401 0 -37 -37
F = 0 0 0 900 153 53 -100 -100
F = F2022 475 016 0.574 489 013 -17 -16 -16
Fpa 357 377 0.40 586 401 0 -37 -37
Flim 571 054 0.74 412 367 -30 1 1
Table 2 Cod in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Annual catch options. All weights are in tonnes.

* SSB 2025 relative to SSB 2024.
** Advice for 2024 relative to TAC for 2023 (566 784 tonnes).
*** Advice for 2024 relative to advice for 2023.
**** F = 0.40 corresponds to the lower bound of the F MSY range (0.40-0.60).

^ Since SSB in 2024 is between Bpa = 460 000 tonnes and 2 × Bpa = 920 000 tonnes, F = 0.40 is used in the 3-year prediction, giving catches of 357 377, 354 196 and 355 390 tonnes in 2024, 2025 and 2026, respectively. The average of this is 355 655 tonnes. According to the harvest control rule (HCR), the maximum decrease in TAC is limited by 20%, giving a catch of 453 427 tonnes, which corresponds to an F of 0.540 in 2024.

The advice for 2024 is 20 % lower than the advice for 2023 due to a declining stock trend and the application of the 20% TAC change constraint.

Basis of the advice

Advice basis Joint Norwegian-Russian Fisheries Commission management plan
Management plan

At the 46th meeting of the Joint Norwegian-Russian Fisheries Commission (JNRFC) in October 2016, the previously used management plan was amended, and the current plan is as follows:

The TAC is calculated as the average catch predicted for the coming 3 years, using the target level of exploitation (F tr ).

The target level of exploitation is calculated according to the spawning-stock biomass (SSB) in the first year of the forecast as follows: