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Advice on fishing opportunities for Barents Sea capelin in 2024

— ICES subareas 1 and 2 excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W

Author(s): Joint Russian-Norwegian Working Group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG)

Report series: IMR-PINRO 2023-8 Published: 16.10.2023
Research group(s): Pelagisk fisk Subject: Lodde – Barentshavet Program: Barentshavet og Polhavet
Approved by: Research Director(s): Geir Huse Program leader(s):

Norsk sammendrag

Stock Name: Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2 excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W )

Released 16 October 2023

Advice on fishing opportunities

The Joint Russian-Norwegian Working Group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG) advises that when the Joint Norwegian–Russian Fisheries Commission management plan is applied, catches in 2024 should be no more than 196 000 tonnes.

Stock development over time

Spawning‑stock size is above Blim. No reference points for fishing pressure have been defined for this stock.

Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). Catch, recruitment, survey biomass (age 1+, maturing (> 14cm) and immature (< 14 cm) stock biomass), and SSB (1 April) with 5 and 95 % confidence limits. The biomass reference points relate to SSB. Survey biomass and recruitment values are estimates from the acoustic survey completed by the beginning of October. The recruitment plot is shown only from 1981 onwards since earlier estimates of age 1 capelin are based on incomplete survey-area coverage. SSB estimates are shown only from 1989 onwards because a different model was used previously, and uncertainty estimates are only available from 2018 onwards. 2022 estimate of recruitment, mature and immature stock biomass not corrected for incomplete survey coverage. Incomplete survey coverage in 2018 also might have led to recruitment underestimation.
Figure 1. Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). Catch, recruitment, survey biomass (age 1+, maturing (> 14cm) and immature (< 14 cm) stock biomass), and SSB (1 April) with 5 and 95 % confidence limits. The biomass reference points relate to SSB. Survey biomass and recruitment values are estimates from the acoustic survey completed by the beginning of October. The recruitment plot is shown only from 1981 onwards since earlier estimates of age 1 capelin are based on incomplete survey coverage. SSB estimates are shown only from 1989 onwards because a different model was used previously, and uncertainty estimates are only available from 2018 onwards. The 2022 estimate of recruitment, maturing and immature stock biomass has not been corrected for incomplete survey coverage. Incomplete survey coverage in 2018 might also have led to recruitment underestimation.

 

 

Catch scenarios

Calculations of catch scenarios are based on a forward projection from the autumn acoustic survey. It involves that SSB for April 2024 is calculated by taking into account predation by immature cod and other sources of natural mortality. A catch scenario that results in SSB greater than 200 000 tonnes with 95% probability corresponds to the JNRFC Management Plan.

Variable Value Notes
Maturing stock biomass 2023 1285 890 Median biomass of fish above the length‑at‑maturity (14 cm), estimated based on the autumn acoustic survey 1 October 2023. These fish will be spawning in April 2024; tonnes.
Predation by immature cod January–March 2024; from the predation model 296 000 Based on the prediction of cod abundance in 2024 from the 2023 cod stock assessment (Anon, 2023a); tonnes.
Table 1. Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). Assumptions made for the interim year and in the forecast. All weights are in tonnes.
Basis Total catch (2024 ) Median SSB (2024 ) P (SSB 2024  > 200 000 t) in % % TAC change* % advice change**
ICES advice basis
MP harvest control rule, P (SSB > 200 000 t) = 95% 196 000 590 000 95 +216 +216
Other scenarios
No fishing 0 785 000 99.8 -100 -100
Table 2. Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). Annual catch scenarios. P = probability. All weights are in tonnes.

* TAC (2024) vs. TAC (2023).

** Advice (2024) vs Advice (2023).

 

Figure 2. Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). Probabilistic prognosis of SSB for the maturing stock from 1 October 2023 to 1 April 2024, based on the acoustic survey estimate from autumn 2023 assuming a catch of 196 000 tonnes. The median and the 5th, 25th, 75th, and 95th percentiles of the distribution are shown.
Figure 2. Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). Probabilistic prognosis of SSB for the maturing stock from 1 October 2023 to 1 April 2024, based on the acoustic survey estimate from autumn 2023 assuming a catch of 196 000 tonnes. The median and the 5th, 25th, 75th, and 95th percentiles of the distribution are shown.

 

Basis of the advice

Advice basis Management plan
Management plan In 2002, the Joint Norwegian–Russian Fisheries Commission (JNRFC) adopted the following harvest control rule (HCR) for Barents Sea capelin: ‘The TAC for the following year should be set so that, with 95% probability, at least 200 000 tonnes of capelin (Blim) will be allowed to spawn ’. ICES evaluated this HCR as well as alternative HCRs suggested by JNRFC in 2016 (ICES, 2016), and only the existing HCR was found to be precautionary. Following ICES evaluation, the JNRFC decided to maintain the existing HCR (JNRFC, 2016). It should be noted that the term Blim in the harvest control rule is replaced by Bescapement in the latest benchmark report (ICES, 2023), and Bescapement is set to 200 000 tonnes (cf Table 4).
Table 3. Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). The basis of the advice.

Quality of the assessment

The geographical survey coverage of the Barents Sea capelin stock during the BESS in 2023 was close to complete (Figure 3); the capelin distribution might have continued a little bit further northwards in the north-east.

Figure 3. Survey coverage and geographical distribution of acoustic recordings of capelin in autumn 2023. The size of the circles corresponds to nautical acoustic scattering coefficient (NASC; m2/nmi2) per 1 nautical mile. Gray dots mark transects or transect sections without capelin recordings.
Figure 3. Survey coverage and geographical distribution of acoustic recordings of capelin in autumn 2023. The size of the circles corresponds to nautical acoustic scattering coefficient (NASC; m2/nmi2) per 1 nautical mile. Gray dots mark transects or transect sections without capelin recordings.

 

Issues relevant for the advice

Due to the temporary suspension of Russian scientists from ICES, this assessment was conducted by a Joint Russian-Norwegian working group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG) consisting of scientists from VNIRO (Russia) and IMR (Norway) (Anon., 2023b). This advice has been conducted outside ICES and should not be considered as ICES advice.

However, this assessment and advice has been produced following the new methodology agreed and described in detail at the recent ICES benchmark in 2022 (ICES, 2023), which is thus used for the first time.

Reference points

Framework Reference point Value Technical basis Source
MSY approach MSY Btrigger      
FMSY      
Precautionary approach Blim 68  000  t SSB1990, which was the lowest SSB after the herring collapse that has produced a good year class. SSB estimated on April 1. ICES (20 23 )
Bpa      
Flim      
Fpa      
Management plan Bescapement 200 000 t Reference point defining the SSB-level used in the HCR. The HCR determines that TAC shall not be set higher than that there is at least 95% probability that SSB is above Bescapement.  JNRFC (2016), ICES (2023)
Fmgt      
Table 4. Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). Reference points, values, and their technical basis.

Basis of the assessment

ICES stock data category 1 ( ICES, 2021b ).
Assessment type Model based on acoustic survey and prediction six months ahead to calculate spawning biomass. Target escapement strategy used.
Input data Norwegian–Russian acoustic survey in September. Model estimates of maturation based on survey data. Natural mortalities from multispecies model (predation by immature cod on prespawning capelin based on information on cod distribution, abundance and stomach content data) .
Discards and bycatch All catches are assumed to be landed. The amount of bycaught capelin in other fisheries is very low.
Indicators None.
Other information Latest benchmark was in 2022 (ICES, 2023).
Working group Joint Russian-Norwegian working group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG).
Table 5. Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). Basis of the assessment and advice.

History of the advice, catch, and management

Year ICES advice Catch corresponding to advice Agreed TAC ICES catch
1987 Catches at the lowest practical level 0 0 0
1988 No catch 0 0 0
1989 No catch 0 0 0
1990 No catch 0 0 0
1991 TAC 1000000 900000 933000
1992 SSB > 400 000–500000 t 834000 1100000 1123000
1993 A cautious approach, SSB > 400 000–500 000 t 600000 630000 586000
1994 No fishing 0 0 0
1995 No fishing 0 0 0
1996 No fishing 0 0 0
1997 No fishing 0 0 1000
1998 No fishing 0 0 3000
1999 SSB > 500 000 t 79000 80000 101000
2000 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 435000 435000 414000
2001 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 630000 630000 568000
2002 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 650000 650000 651000
2003 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 310000 310000 282000
2004 No fishing 0 0 0
2005 No fishing 0 0 1000*
2006 No fishing 0 0 0
2007 No fishing 0 0 4000*
2008 No fishing 0 0 12000*
2009 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 390000 390000 307000
2010 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 360000 360000 323000
2011 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 380000 380000 360000
2012 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 320000 320000 296000
2013 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 200000 200000 177000
2014 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 65000 65000 66000
2015 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 6000 120000 115000
2016 Zero catch 0 0 0
2017 Zero catch 0 0 0
2018 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 205000 205000 194520
2019 Zero catch 0 0 ** 53*
2020 Management plan 0 0** 31*
2021 Management plan 0 0** 10*
2022 Management plan ≤ 70000 70000 65246***
2023 Management plan *** ≤ 62000*** 62000 60692***
2024 Management plan *** ≤ 196000***    

Table 6. Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). Advice, agreed TAC, and catch. All weights are in tonnes.

* Research catch and bycatches in other fisheries.

** Up to 500 tonnes was allowed for research survey catches.

*** In 2022 and 2023 assessment and advice was carried out by the Joint Russian-Norwegian working group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG) which compiled catches and gave advice.

History of catch and landings

Year Winter Summer–Autumn Year total
Norway Russia Others Total Norway Russia Total
1965 217000 7000 0 224000 0 0 0 224000
1966 380000 9000 0 389000 0 0 0 389000
1967 403000 6000 0 409000 0 0 0 409000
1968 460000 15000 0 475000 62000 0 62000 537000
1969 436000 1000 0 437000 243000 0 243000 680000
1970 955000 8000 0 963000 346000 5000 351000 1314000
1971 1300000 14000 0 1314000 71000 7000 78000 1392000
1972 1208000 24000 0 1232000 347000 13000 360000 1591000
1973 1078000 34000 0 1112000 213000 12000 225000 1337000
1974 749000 63000 0 812000 237000 99000 336000 1148000
1975 559000 301000 43000 903000 407000 131000 538000 1441000
1976 1252000 228000 0 1480000 739000 368000 1107000 2587000
1977 1441000 317000 2000 1760000 722000 504000 1226000 2986000
1978 784000 429000 25000 1238000 360000 318000 678000 1916000
1979 539000 342000 5000 886000 570000 326000 896000 1782000
1980 539000 253000 9000 801000 459000 388000 847000 1648000
1981 784000 429000 28000 1241000 454000 292000 746000 1986000
1982 568000 260000 5000 833000 591000 336000 927000 1760000
1983 751000 373000 36000 1160000 758000 439000 1197000 2357000
1984 330000 257000 42000 629000 481000 368000 849000 1477000
1985 340000 234000 17000 591000 113000 164000 277000 868000
1986 72000 51000 0 123000 0 0 0 123000
1987 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1988 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1989 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1990 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1991 528000 159000 20000 707000 31000 195000 226000 933000
1992 620000 247000 24000 891000 73000 159000 232000 1123000
1993 402000 170000 14000 586000 0 0 0 586000
1994 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1995 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1996 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1997 0 0 0 0 0 1000 1000 1000
1998 0 2000 0 2000 0 1000 1000 3000
1999 50000 33000 0 83000 0 22000 22000 105000
2000 279000 94000 8000 381000 0 29000 29000 410000
2001 376000 180000 8000 564000 0 14000 14000 578000
2002 398000 228000 17000 643000 0 16000 16000 659000
2003 180000 93000 9000 282000 0 0 0 282000
2004 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2005 1000 0 0 1000 0 0 0 1000
2006 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2007 2000 2000 0 4000 0 0 0 4000
2008 5000 5000 0 10000 0 2000 2000 12000
2009 233000 73000 0 306000 0 1000 1000 307000
2010 246000 77000 0 323000 0 0 0 323000
2011 273000 87000 0 360000 0 0 0 360000
2012 228000 68000 0 296000 0 0 0 296000
2013 116000 60000 0 177000 0 0 0 177000
2014 40000 26000 0 66000 0 0 0 66000
2015 71000 44000 0 115000 0 0 0 115000
2016 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2017 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2018 128520 66000 0 194520 0 0 0 194520
2019 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 53
2020 9 0 0 9 0 21 0 31
2021 2 0 0 2 0 8 0 10
2022 42597 22646 0 65243 0 3* 3* 65246*
2023 37652 23040 0 60692        
Table 7. Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). The history of official catches is presented for each country participating in the fishery. All weights are in tonnes.

* Bycatch in other fisheries; values are preliminary.

Summary of the assessment

Year Predicted SSB assuming catch =  advised catch, 1 April Recruitment from autumn acoustic survey, 1 October Stock biomass from autumn acoustic survey, 1 October Catch
Median 5th percentile 95th percentile Immature Maturing biomass
tonnes Age 1, thousands tonnes
1972         3873000 2727000 1591000
1973         3794000 1350000 1337000
1974         4826000 907000 1148000
1975         4890000 2916000 1441000
1976         3217000 3200000 2587000
1977         2120000 2676000 2986000
1978         2845000 1402000 1916000
1979         2935000 1227000 1782000
1980         2802000 3913000 1648000
1981       402600000 2344000 1551000 1986000
1982       528300000 2188000 1591000 1760000
1983       514900000 2901000 1329000 2357000
1984       154800000 1756000 1208000 1477000
1985       38700000 575000 285000 868000
1986       6000000 55000 65000 123000
1987       37600000 84000 17000 0
1988       21000000 228000 200000 0
1989 84000     189200000 689000 175000 0
1990 92000     700400000 3214000 2617000 0
1991 643000     402100000 5039000 2248000 933000
1992 302000     351300000 2922000 2228000 1123000
1993 293000     2200000 466000 330000 586000
1994 139000     19800000 106000 94000 0
1995 60000     7100000 75000 118000 0
1996 60000     81900000 255000 248000 0
1997 85000     98900000 597000 312000 1000
1998 94000     179000000 1124000 932000 3000
1999 382000     156000000 1057000 1718000 105000
2000 599000     449200000 2175000 2098000 410000
2001 626000     113600000 1611000 2019000 578000
2002 496000     59700000 919000 1291000 659000
2003 427000     82400000 253000 280000 282000
2004 94000     606 00000 289000 224000 0
2005 122000     1 6900000 139000 348000 1000
2006 72000     51400000 288000 348000 0
2007 189000     194900000 970000 846000 4000
2008 330000     289200000 1765000 2185000 12000
2009 517000     171800000 1355000 1892000 307000
2010 504000     241900000 1576000 2248000 323000
2011 487000     193900000 1545000 2059000 360000
2012 504000     174500000 1461000 1996000 296000
2013 479000     321100000 2248000 1725000 177000
2014 399000     102700000 904000 785000 66000
2015 504000     39000000 448000 434000 115000
2016 82000     32600000 164000 153000 0
2017 37000     115300000 881000 1547000 0
2018 462000 200000 930000 58700000 541000 1100000 194520
2019 317000 168282 613733 17900000 111000 302000 53
2020 85110 38830 171850 369700000 1348000 542000 31
2021 156376 75197 314559 222200000 2527000 1459000 10
2022 423751 201897 838670 75460000* 1357000 817000 65246
2023 534000 201000 1250000 108509000 1666000 1286000 60692
2024 590000 201000 1011000        
Table 8. Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). Assessment summary. Weights are in tonnes, recruitment in thousands. Recruitment and stock biomass in 1985 and earlier are survey estimates, back-calculated to 1 August (before the autumn fishing season); from 1986 and later, these values are based on the survey estimates with no back-calculation. Maturing biomass is the survey estimate of fish above the length-at-maturity (14 cm). Predicted SSB is the modelled stochastic spawning-stock biomass (after the winter fishery)

*Not adjusted for incomplete survey coverage.

References

Anon. 2023a . Report of the Joint Russian-Norwegian Working Group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG) 2023. IMR-PINRO report series 7 -2023, 189 pp.

Anon. 2023b. Report of capelin assessment by the Joint Russian-Norwegian Working Group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG) 2023. IMR-PINRO report series 8-2023.

ICES. 2001. Barents Sea capelin (Subareas I and II, excluding Division IIa west of 5°W). In Report of the Advisory Committee on Fishery Management, 2001, Part 1, Section 3.1.8, pp. 65–70. ICES Cooperative Research Report No. 246. 921 pp. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.5383.

ICES. 2015. Report of the Benchmark Workshop on Arctic Stocks (WKARCT), 26–30 January 2015, Copenhagen, Denmark. ICES CM 2015/ACOM:31. 126 pp. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.5295.

ICES. 2016. Report of the second Workshop on Management Plan Evaluation on Northeast Arctic cod and haddock and Barents Sea capelin, 25–28 January 2016, Kirkenes, Norway. ICES CM 2016/ACOM:47. 76 pp. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.5296.

ICES. 2023. Benchmark workshop on capelin (WKCAPELIN). ICES Scientific Reports. 5:62. 282 pp. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.23260388

JNRFC. 2016. Protocol of the 46th Session of the Joint Norwegian–Russian Fisheries Commission, Annex 12. Translated from Norwegian to English. For an accurate interpretation, please consult the text in the official languages of the Commission (Norwegian and Russian) at https://www.jointfish.com/content/download/501/6352/file/46-norsk.pdf (Norwegian) and https://www.jointfish.com/rus/content/download/502/6357/file/46-russisk.pdf (Russian).