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Advice on fishing opportunities for Northeast Arctic haddock in 2026 in ICES subareas 1 and 2

Author(s): Joint Russian-Norwegian Working Group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN- AFWG)

Report series: IMR-PINRO 2025-5 Published: 01.07.2025 Project No.: 15565
Approved by: Research Director(s): Geir Huse Program leader(s): Maria Fossheim External: Research Director Oleg Bulatov (VNIRO)

Stock Name: Northeast Arctic haddock (ICES areas 1 and 2)

Advice on fishing opportunities

The Joint Russian-Norwegian working group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG) advises that when the Joint Norwegian–Russian Fisheries Commission management plan is applied, catches in 2026 should be no more than 153 293 tonnes .

Stock development over time

Fishing pressure on the stock in 2024 is 0.47, corresponding to Fpa , and is below Flim and above Fmsy. The spawning stock biomass in 2025 is above Bpa and Blim.

 

Catch, recruitment, F, SSB and TSB.
Figure 1. Haddock in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Catch, recruitment, F, SSB and TSB (total stock biomass, age 3+) with 95 % confidence levels. The biomass reference points relate to SSB.

 

The total stock, spawning stock and catches are expected to increase when the 2022 and 2023 year-classes enter the fishery and the 2021 year-class is fully recruited and maturing.

Catch scenarios

Variable Value Notes
Fages 4–7 (2025 ) 0.40 TAC constraint
SSB (2026 ) 157 726 Short-term forecast
Rage 3 (2025 ) 532 133 SAM estimate
Rage 3 (2026 ) 384 665 RCT3 estimate
Rage 3 (2027 ) 649 065 RCT3 estimate
Total catch (2025 ) 130 000 TAC set by 54th JRNFC
Table 1. Haddock in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). SSB, catch in tonnes and recruitment in thousands.
Basis

Total catch (2026)

F ages 4−7 (2026)

SSB (2027)

% SSB change *

% TAC change **

% Advice change ***
Advice basis            
Management plan 153 293 0.35 195 888 24 18 43
Other scenarios            
MSY approach: FMSY 153 293 0.35 195 888 24 18 43
F = 0 0 0.00 265 334 68 -100 -100
F = F2025 172 237 0.4 0 1 87 7 14 19 32 61
Fpa 197 014 0.47 177 178 12 52 84
Flim 290 750 0.77 139 065 -12 124 172
Table 2. Haddock in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Annual catch options. All weights are in tonnes.

* SSB 2027 relative to SSB 2026.

** Catch in 2026 relative to TAC in 2025 (130 000 t)

*** Catch value for 2026 relative to advice value for 2025 (106 912 t)

The TAC advice for 2026 is 18% higher than the TAC and 43% higher than the advice for 2025 due to an increasing stock trend.

Basis of the advice

Advice basis Joint Norwegian-Russian Fisheries Commission management plan
Management plan The current harvest control rule (HCR) for haddock is as follows (see details in Protocol of the 46 th Session of the Joint Norwegian–Russian Fisheries Commission [JNRFC, 2016]):
  • TAC for the next year will be set at level corresponding to FMSY.
  • The TAC should not be changed by more than ±25% compared with the previous year TAC.
  • If the spawning stock falls below Bpa , the procedure for establishing TAC should be based on a fishing mortality that is linearly reduced from FMSY at Bpa to F = 0 at SSB equal to zero. At SSB-levels below Bpa in any of the operational years (current year and a year ahead) there should be no limitations on the year-to-year variations in TAC.

At the 46 th Session of the Joint Norwegian–Russian Fisheries Commission in 2016 it was decided to keep the existing HCR for haddock for the next five years.

 

Quota flexibility: In 2014, JNRFC decided that from 2015 onwards, Norway and Russia can transfer to, or borrow from, the following year up to 10% of the country’s quota.

 

ICES evaluated this HCR in 2016 (ICES, 2016) and rechecked it in 2020 (ICES, 2020). ICES concluded that the HCR is precautionary.

Table 3. Haddock in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). The basis of the advice.

Quality of the assessment

Historical assessment results.
Figure 2. Haddock in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Historical assessment results. The shaded areas indicate the 95% confidence intervals for the 2025 assessment.

 

There was a benchmark in 2020, which explains the downward revision of the SSB.

Issues relevant for the advice

Due to the temporary suspension of Russian scientists from ICES in 2022 and the Russian decision to withdraw from ICES in 2024, this year’s assessment was as in 2022-2024 conducted by a Joint Russian-Norwegian Arctic Fisheries Working Group (JRN-AFWG) consisting of scientists from VNIRO (Russia) and IMR (Norway) (Howell et al., 2025).

This advice has been conducted outside ICES and should not be considered as ICES advice. However, this assessment and advice has been produced following the methodology agreed at the ICES benchmark in 2020 (ICES, 2020).

The 2015-2017 year-classes that have dominated the catches are now being fished out and the following 2018-2020 year-classes are weak, so there are few older fish in stock. The incoming year-classes are estimated to be average or above average, but the abundance estimates of younger fish are uncertain. In the forecast, 37% of the catches in 2026 are expected to come from the 2021 year-class. On average the 2022 year-class is expected to grow over the minimum catching size in 2026 and contribute 29% of the catches in 2026, but the accuracy of this prediction is highly dependent on the fishing pattern and growth of this year class. Given the current fishing pattern and the high proportion of young fish in the stock, we predict growth overfishing to occur on the incoming year-classes.

Reference points 

Table 4. Haddock in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Reference points, values, and their technical basis.
Framework Reference point Value Technical basis Source
MSY approach MSY B trigger 80000 tonnes Bpa ICES (2020)
F MSY 0.35 Stochastic long-term simulations ICES (2020)
Precautionary approach Blim 50 000 tonnes Bloss ICES (2020)
Bpa 80 000 tonnes Blim  × exp (1.645 ×  σ ), where σ  = 0.3 ICES (2020)
Flim 0.77 Determined from replacement line leading from SSB = 0 to the geometric mean recruitment at SSB = B lim ICES (2020)
Fpa 0.47 Flim  × exp (−1.645 ×  σ ), where σ  = 0.3 ICES (2020)
Management plan SSB MGT 80000 tonnes Bpa ICES (2020)
F MGT 0.35 FMSY ICES (2020)

Basis of the assessment

Table 5 . Haddock in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Basis of the assessment and advice.
ICES stock data category 1
Assessment type Age-based analytical assessment (SAM) that uses catches in the model.
Input data Commercial landings (international landings, ages, and length frequencies from catch sampling); four survey indices (RU-BTr-Q4 (Btr), BS-NoRU-Q1(Aco), BS-NoRu-Q1 (BTr), and Eco-NoRu-Q3 (Btr)); annual maturity and stock weight-at-age data from surveys; from 1984, the natural mortalities are derived from the consumption of haddock (ages 3–6) by cod.
Discards and bycatch Discarding is considered negligible in recent years.
Indicators None.
Other information Last benchmarked in February 2020 (ICES, 2020).
Working group Joint Russian-Norwegian working group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG)

History of the advice, catch, and management

Table 6. Haddock in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). ICES advice, agreed TACs, the official and unreported landings, and ICES catches. All weights are in tonnes.
Year ICES advice Catch corresponding to advice Agreed TAC Official catches Unreported landings (included in ICES catches) ICES catches
1987 No increase in F; TAC 160000 250000 154916   154916
1988 No increase in F < 240000 240000 95255   95255
1989 Large reduction in F 69000 83000 58518   58518
1990 No directed fishery - 25000 27182   27182
1991 No directed fishery - 28000 36216   36216
1992 Within safe biological limits 35000 63000 59922   59922
1993 No long-term gains in increasing F 56000 72000 82379   82379
1994 No long-term gains in F > F med 97000* 120000 135186   135186
1995 No long-term gains in F > F med 122000* 130000 142448   142448
1996 No long-term gains in F > F med 169000* 170000 178128   178128
1997 Well below Fmed < 242000 210000 154359   154359
1998 Below Fmed < 120000 130000 100630   100630
1999 Reduce F below Fpa < 74000 78000 83195   83195
2000 Reduce F below Fpa < 37000 62000 68944   68944
2001 Reduce F below Fpa < 66000 85000 89640   89640
2002 Reduce F below Fpa < 64000 85000 96062 18736 114798
2003 Reduce F below Fpa < 101000 101000 105700 33226 138926
2004 Reduce F below Fpa < 120000 130000 124502 33777 158279
2005 Reduce F below Fpa < 106000 117000 118015 40283 158298
2006 Reduce F below Fpa < 112000 120000 131706 21451 153157
2007 Limit catches < 130000 150000 146972 14553 161525
2008 Limit catches to 2001–2004 average < 130000 155000 149776 5828 155604
2009 Apply management plan < 194000 194000 200061 0 200061
2010 Apply management plan < 243000 243000 249200 0 249200
2011 Apply management plan < 303000 303000 309785 0 309785
2012 Apply management plan < 318000 318000 315627 0 315627
2013 Apply management plan < 238000 200000 193744 0 193744
2014 Apply management plan < 150000 178500 177522 0 177522
2015 Apply management plan < 165000 223000 194756 0 194756
2016 Apply management plan < 244000^ 244000 233416 0 233416
2017 Apply management plan ≤ 233000 233000 227588 0 227588
2018 Apply management plan ≤ 202305 202305 191276 0 191276
2019 Apply management plan ≤ 152000 172000 175402 0 175402
2020 Apply management plan ≤ 215000 215000 182468 0 182468
2021 Apply management plan ≤ 232537 232537 204843 0 204743 ^^
2022 Apply management plan ≤ 178532 178532 176906 0 176906^^
2023 Apply management plan ≤ 170067 ^^ 170067 178899 0 178899 ^^
2024 Apply management plan ≤ 127550 ^^ 141000 139992 0 139992 ^^
2025 Apply management plan ≤ 106912 ^^ 130000      
2026 Apply management plan ≤ 153293 ^^        

* Predicted landings at Fmed .

^ This advice was updated on 7 July 2015 in response to a special request (ICES, 2015) after a mid-year change in TAC in 2015 (from 178 500 tonnes to 223 000 tonnes) .

^^ In 2022-2025 assessment and advice was carried out by the Joint Russian-Norwegian working group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG) which compiled catches for 2021-2024 and gave advice for 2023-2026.

History of catch and landings

Table 7. Haddock in ICES subareas 1 and 2. History of official commercial catch and landings by country. All weights are in tonnes.
Year Faroe Islands France Fed. Rep. Germany. Greenland Norway^ Russia** Spain United Kingdom Others Unreported catches*** Total
1960 172 - 5597   46263 57025   45469 125 - 154651
1961 285 220 6304   60862 85345    39650 558 - 193224
1962 83 409 2895   54567 91910   37486 58 - 187408
1963 17 363 2554   59955 63526   19809 - - 146224
1964 - 208 1482   38695 43870   14653 250 - 99158
1965 - 226 1568   60447 41750   14345 242 - 118578
1966 - 1072 2098   82090 48710   27723 85 - 161778
1967 - 1208 1705   51954 57346   24158 26 - 136397
1968 - - 1867   64076 75654   40129 0 - 181726
1969 2 - 1490   67549 24211   37234 334 - 130820
1970 541 - 2119   37716 26802   20423 656 - 88257
1971 81 - 896   45715 15778   16373 62 - 78905
1972 137 - 1433   46700 196224   17166 4493 - 266153
1973 1212 3214 9534   86767 186534   32408 2557 - 322226
1974 925 3601 23409   66164 78548   37663 10847 - 221157
1975 299 5191 15930   55966 65015   28677 4680 - 175758
1976 536 4459 16660   49492 42485   16940 6692 - 137264
1977 213 1510 4798   40118 52210   10878 431 - 110158
1978 466 1411 1521   39955 45895   5766 408 - 95422
1979 343 1198 1948   66849 26365   6454 466 - 103623
1980 497 226 1365   66501 20706   2948 261 - 92504
1981 381 414 2402   63435 13400   1682 22 - 81736
1982 496 53 1258   43702 2900 - 827 0 - 49236
1983 428 - 729   22364 680 139 259 1 - 24600
1984 297 15 400   18813 1103 37 276 4 - 20945
1985 424 21 395   21272 22690 77 153 20 - 45052
1986 893 12 1079   52313 45738 22 431 75 - 100563
1987 464 7 3105   72419 78211 59 563 88 - 154916
1988 1113 116 1323   60823 31293 72 435 80 - 95255
1989 1217 - 171   36451 20062 1 590 26 - 58518
1990 705 - 167   20621 5190 - 494 5 - 27182
1991 1117 - 213   22178 12177 - 514 17 - 36216
1992 1093 151 387 1719 36238 19699 38 596 1 - 59922
1993 546 1215 1165 880 40978 35071 76 1802 646 - 82379
1994 2761 678 2412 770 71171 51822 22 4673 877 - 135186
1995 2833 598 2675 1097 76886 54516 14 3111 718 - 142448
1996 3743 6 942 1510 94527 74239 669 2275 217 - 178128
1997 3327 540 972 1877 103407 41228 364 2340 304 - 154359
1998 1903 241 385 854 75108 20559 257 1229 94 - 100630
1999 1913 64 641 437 48182 30520 652 694 92 - 83195
2000 631 178 880 432 42009 22738 502 747 827 - 68944
2001 1210 324 554 553 49067 34307 1497 1068 1060 - 89640
2002 1564 297 627 858 52247 37157 1505 1125 682 18736 114798
2003 1959 382 918 1363 56485 41142 1330 1018 1103 33226 138926
2004 2484 103 823 1680 62192 54347 54 1250 1569 33777 158279
2005 2138 333 996 15 60850 50012 963 1899 1262 40283 158751
2006 2390 883 989 1830 69272 53313 703 1164 1162 21451 153157
2007 2307 277 1123 1464 71244 66569 125 1351 2511 14553 161525
2008 2687 311 535 1659 72779 68792 283 971 1759 5828 155604
2009 2820 529 1957 1410 104354 85514 317 1315 1845 0 200061
2010 3173 764 3539 1970 123384 111372 379 1758 2862 0 249200
2011 1759 268 1724 2110 158202 139912 502 1379 3929 0 309785
2012 2055 322 1111 3984 159602 143886 441 833 3393 0 315627
2013 1886 342 500 1795 99215 85668 439 639 3260 0 193744
2014 1470 198 340 1150 91306 78725 187 355 3791 0 177522
2015 2459 145 124 1047 95094 91864 246 450 3327 0 194756
2016 2460 340 170 1401 108718 115710 200 575 3838 0 233416
2017 2776 108 170 1810 113132 106714 228 372 2279 0 227588
2018 2333 183 385 1317 93839 90486 169 453 2173 0 191276
2019 1515 143 204 1208 93860 76125 280 456 1611 0 175402
2020 1392 96 282 910 88108 89030 45 320 2286 0 182468
2021^ 1722 105 365 1101 100673 98296 131 78 2272 0 204743
2022^ 1831 164 268 1101 89044 82364 99 138 1897 0 176906
2023^ 1993 235 296 672 91325 81751 139 112 2376 0 178899
2024*^ 1637 188 645 180 71226 64423 47 152 1494 0 139992

* Provisional figures.

** USSR prior to 1991.

*** Figures based on Norwegian/Russian illegal, unreported, and unregulated fisheries (IUU) estimates.

^ In 2022-2025 assessment and advice was carried out by the Joint Russian-Norwegian working group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG) which compiled catches for 2021-2024 and gave advice for 2023-2026.

Summary of the assessment

Table 8. Haddock in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Assessment summary. Low and high refer to 95% confidence bounds.
Year Recruitment (thousands) SSB (tonnes) Total catch (tonnes) F
Age 3 Low High SSB Low High Ages 4–7 Low High
1950 109205 69850 170733 213037 190711 237977 132125 0.794 0.673 0.936
1951 627326 417573 942440 124773 110703 140633 120077 0.683 0.576 0.81
1952 83903 54178 129937 100853 88165 115368 127660 0.702 0.588 0.839
1953 1175428 784414 1761354 120273 104016 139071 123920 0.533 0.441 0.643
1954 130455 84294 201893 173161 147274 203599 156788 0.432 0.357 0.524
1955 58576 37390 91767 309089 264221 361577 202286 0.448 0.373 0.539
1956 221231 142492 343478 363732 310115 426617 213924 0.474 0.395 0.569
1957 60392 38608 94466 253141 217080 295193 123583 0.428 0.357 0.513
1958 73501 47508 113717 181369 157528 208818 112672 0.517 0.43 0.622
1959 382306 253852 575758 125449 109005 144374 88211 0.446 0.369 0.54
1960 312759 206179 474435 112805 99525 127858 154651 0.541 0.452 0.647
1961 141716 93577 214619 124378 110802 139617 193224 0.664 0.562 0.784
1962 288516 191930 433707 124539 110587 140251 187408 0.793 0.674 0.932
1963 310273 208224 462335 93925 82650 106737 146224 0.76 0.638 0.905
1964 349427 233167 523656 84228 74078 95769 99158 0.634 0.528 0.762
1965 125264 81812 191793 102863 89899 117696 118578 0.527 0.437 0.636
1966 308278 203489 467027 144655 126065 165986 161778 0.559 0.466 0.67
1967 336411 221609 510684 150640 130041 174503 136397 0.444 0.368 0.536
1968 18630 11587 29955 166970 144796 192540 181726 0.485 0.401 0.586
1969 20294 12601 32685 166741 143546 193685 130820 0.416 0.34 0.508
1970 204608 132949 314890 154465 131254 181780 88257 0.386 0.313 0.477
1971 110060 71679 168993 127035 107265 150449 78905 0.329 0.264 0.41
1972 1063159 699647 1615540 127920 111215 147135 266153 0.654 0.537 0.797
1973 309302 205800 464858 125158 107948 145113 322226 0.539 0.442 0.657
1974 64978 42349 99699 154044 134410 176547 221157 0.503 0.416 0.608
1975 58765 38294 90180 194620 166846 227016 175758 0.497 0.415 0.594
1976 59524 38039 93144 195464 167823 227657 137264 0.718 0.606 0.851
1977 120299 76136 190079 118892 100276 140964 110158 0.734 0.607 0.889
1978 211943 140914 318773 80839 67032 97489 95422 0.628 0.511 0.77
1979 159503 105599 240923 62230 52414 73885 103623 0.584 0.472 0.722
1980 23166 14478 37069 62493 53169 73453 87889 0.476 0.383 0.591
1981 10834 6488 18090 72359 61298 85417 77153 0.437 0.351 0.543
1982 16365 10014 26744 68355 56657 82469 46955 0.383 0.305 0.481
1983 8087 4722 13852 58470 48118 71048 24600 0.35 0.274 0.446
1984 13091 8028 21348 53097 43383 64986 20945 0.315 0.245 0.406
1985 357274 235746 541451 48966 40785 58788 45052 0.399 0.314 0.507
1986 476016 315391 718444 54557 46327 64250 100563 0.536 0.428 0.672
1987 91595 59489 141030 77165 66019 90192 154916 0.63 0.508 0.782
1988 39726 25023 63068 79572 67080 94390 95255 0.512 0.411 0.637
1989 27985 17392 45031 84270 69583 102057 58518 0.371 0.295 0.467
1990 36259 23363 56275 86046 70288 105337 27182 0.212 0.167 0.27
1991 108038 76133 153312 100226 84341 119104 36216 0.24 0.191 0.3
1992 317123 226311 444375 110154 95331 127283 59922 0.296 0.239 0.366
1993 807521 590108 1105035 123904 109396 140336 82379 0.32 0.262 0.393
1994 388099 316581 475773 156808 140427 175100 135186 0.375 0.31 0.454
1995 99893 78807 126622 191602 171330 214274 142448 0.305 0.256 0.362
1996 99365 78795 125305 222898 199541 248989 178128 0.372 0.317 0.436
1997 119217 94787 149943 194388 173628 217630 154359 0.45 0.382 0.531
1998 63007 49253 80602 134234 119187 151181 100630 0.455 0.382 0.542
1999 146615 118401 181552 96981 86161 109160 83195 0.464 0.386 0.559
2000 82744 65532 104476 80889 71779 91156 68944 0.343 0.282 0.418
2001 357393 295558 432164 94278 84250 105501 89640 0.37 0.308 0.445
2002 385143 317862 466665 111802 99993 125005 114798 0.355 0.296 0.426
2003 333954 271890 410184 141057 126864 156837 138926 0.429 0.363 0.507
2004 256154 211388 310400 160281 144197 178159 158279 0.395 0.336 0.464
2005 354219 294011 426756 171410 154221 190516 158298 0.409 0.349 0.48
2006 153964 125825 188397 156157 140474 173591 153157 0.373 0.317 0.44
2007 510371 422347 616740 157546 142097 174675 161525 0.389 0.33 0.46
2008 1048496 877115 1253363 165470 148295 184636 155604 0.322 0.27 0.385
2009 979985 821372 1169226 185526 166520 206700 200061 0.269 0.226 0.321
2010 234126 192163 285253 249278 223638 277859 249200 0.254 0.216 0.3
2011 116753 93342 146037 361199 323994 402677 309785 0.266 0.228 0.311
2012 332647 274160 403611 480135 427624 539095 315627 0.229 0.195 0.268
2013 117381 94167 146318 526559 467084 593606 193744 0.153 0.129 0.182
2014 402425 333405 485733 526163 469932 589124 177522 0.158 0.132 0.189
2015 72042 56928 91169 503022 453702 557703 194756 0.192 0.161 0.229
2016 207043 168898 253803 494946 447283 547689 233183 0.264 0.223 0.312
2017 192788 157574 235870 415349 377738 456703 227588 0.355 0.301 0.417
2018 354062 290241 431917 305316 276968 336566 191276 0.412 0.351 0.484
2019 776087 645770 932701 232647 210882 256659 175402 0.45 0.38 0.531
2020 414649 342860 501469 191172 172921 211349 182468 0.479 0.406 0.566
2021 155855 125600 193399 174736 157928 193333 204743 0.496 0.422 0.584
2022 45328 34673 59258 172599 153861 193620 176906 0.427 0.361 0.507
2023 166467 134426 206146 177438 156774 200825 178899 0.448 0.376 0.534
2024 427761 351365 520767 163226 140567 189539 139992 0.47 0.378 0.586
2025 532133 426734 663565 149209 120565 184657        

References

Howell et al. 2025. Report of the Joint Russian-Norwegian Working Group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG). IMR-PINRO Joint Report Series 6-2025

ICES. 2015. Norway and Russia request to ICES for revised advice for Haddock in Subareas I and II . In Report of the ICES Advisory Committee, 2015. ICES Advice 2015, Book 3, Section 3.2.3.1. 9 pp. http://www.ices.dk/sites/pub/Publication%20Reports/Advice/2015/Special_Requests/Norway_Russia_had-arct_update.pdf .

ICES 2016. Report of the second Workshop on Management Plan Evaluation on Northeast Arctic cod and haddock and Barents Sea capelin (WKNEAMP-2) , 25-28 January 2016, Kirkenes, Norway. ICES CM 2016/ACOM:47, 76 pp.

JNRFC. 2016. Protocol of the 46th Session of the Joint Norwegian–Russian Fisheries Commission, 17–20 October 2016 (In Russian). 117 pp. Available at: http://www.jointfish.com/rus/content/download/502/6357/file/46-russisk.pdf .

ICES. 2020. Benchmark Workshop for Demersal Species (WKDEM). ICES Scientific Reports, 2:31. 136 pp. http://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.5548 .