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Advice on fishing opportunities for Greenland halibut in 2024 in ICES subareas 1 and 2

Report series: IMR-PINRO 2023-6 Published: 22.06.2023
Approved by: Research Director(s): Geir Huse Program leader(s): Maria Fossheim

Norsk sammendrag

Stock Name: Northeast Arctic Greenland halibut (ICES areas 1 and 2)

Advice on fishing opportunities

The Joint Russian-Norwegian Arctic Fisheries Working Group (JRN-AFWG) advises that when the MSY approach is applied, catches in 2024 should be no more than 15 560 tonnes.

Stock development over time

The female spawning stock biomass is sligthly above Bpa, above Blim, and declining. Total harvestable biomass (≥45 cm) is in a rapid decline. Harvest rate is increasing and is now above HRMSY.

 

Standard figures
Figure 1 Greenland halibut in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). From top left to bottom right: Catches, recruitment at age 2, harvest rate for fish ≥45 cm with estimated HRMSY, and female SSB as well as HSB (harvestable stock biomass defined as ≥ 45 cm fish). The biomass reference points relate to female SSB. Note that the recruitment spike in 2019 is uncertain.

 

Catch scenarios

Variable Value Notes
Harvest rate ≥ 45 cm (2023) 0.220 Based on expected catch in 2023
Biomass ≥ 45 cm (2024) 115 970 Beginning of 2024
Female SSB (2024) 45 379 Beginning of 2024
Recruitment age 1 (2023-2024) 50 928 Average 1990-2017. Does not influence short-term forecast
Expected catch (2023) 26 998 Based on status quo catch in 202 3 tonnes
Table 1 Greenland halibut in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Assumptions made for the interim year and in the forecast. Biomasses and catch in tonnes, and recruitment in thousands.
Basis Total catch (2024) HR (2024) Female SSB (2025) % Female SSB change * % TAC change ** % Advice change ***
Advice basis
MSY approach: HR MSY x SSB2024/B trigger 15 560 0.134 46 054 1.5 -37.8 -15.9
Other scenarios
MSY approach ex. 2019 recruitment spike 14 012 0.129 43 282 -1.2 -44.0 -24.2
HR=0 0 0 53 142 14.6 -100.0 -100.0
Catch s.q. 26 997 0.233 40 844 -11.1 8.0 46.0
Table 2. Greenland halibut in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Annual catch scenarios for 2024. All weights are in tonnes. H arvest rate (HR) for ≥ 45 cm fish, female spawning stock biomass (SSB) in the beginning of 2025 .

* Female SSB 2025 relative to 2024. Note that the comparisons are within each scenario.
** Advice for 2024 relative to the TAC in 2023 (25 000 tonnes).
*** Advice for 202 4 relative to the advice for 202 3 (18 494 tonnes).

The advice for 2024 is lower than the advice for 2023 mainly due to recent below average recruitment and high fishing pressure resulting in decreasing stock size.

Basis of the advice

Advice basis MSY approach
Management plan There is no agreed precautionary management plan for Greenland halibut in this area
Table 3 Greenland halibut in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). The basis of the advice.

Quality of the assessment

There was an ICES benchmark between the 2021 and 2023 assessment. The new assessment (including age data) results in considerably lower biomass levels and higher HR, but the trends and catch advice are similar. This revision suggests that the stock is more impacted by the current level of catch above advice than was previously believed. In the previous assessment the biomass trends were considered reliable, but the absolute level of biomass was considered highly uncertain. Although the inclusion of age data is likely to have improved the estimation of absolute biomass, this should still be considered uncertain.

Peaks in recruitment were most likely exaggerated in the previous assessment model, while in the present model they are probably underestimated. There is evidence for a good recruitment event in 2019. However, the magnitude of this recruitment spike is currently poorly constrained by the data and should be considered uncertain.

 

Historic retrospective pattern
Figure 2 Greenland halibut in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Historical assessment results. Black lines; 2021 assessment. Blue lines; 2023 assessment. Reference points refer to the 2023 assessment only.

 

Issues relevant for the advice

Due to the temporary suspension of Russian scientists from ICES, this assessment was conducted by a Joint Russian-Norwegian Arctic Fisheries Working Group (JRN-AFWG) consisting of scientists from VNIRO (Russia) and IMR (Norway) (Howell et al., 2023).

This advice has been conducted outside ICES and should not be considered as ICES advice. However, the assessment has been produced following the methodology agreed at the ICES benchmark in 2023 (ICES, 2023).

The fishery has a history of both quotas being set at levels above those provided in scientific advice and catches being above the quota; this is not precautionary.

Greenland halibut is a long-lived species which requires low fishing pressure – and the stock is currently declining .

The Greenland halibut advice is for one year to bring the timing back in line with the slope survey, which is conducted biennially, after this the two-year advice cycle will be resumed.

Reference points

Framework Reference point Value Technical basis Source
MSY approach MSY  19 142 tonnes Maximum sustainable yield (long term) Howell et al., 2023
HRMSY 0.139 HR (≥45cm) leading to MSY
Precautionary approach Blim 33 391 tonnes Lowest modelled female SSB
Bpa 46 747 tonnes Blim x 1.4 (female SSB)
Btrigger 46 747 tonnes Bpa (female SSB)
HRlim 0.165 HR (≥45cm) leading to P(female SSB<B lim ) = 0.5
HRpa 0.145 HR(≥45cm), when ICES AR is applied, leading to P(female SSB < Blim ) = 0.05
Table 4 Greenland halibut in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Reference points, values, and their technical basis.

Basis of the assessment

ICES stock data category 1.
Assessment type Age–length-structured (Gadget model).
Input data Trends in biomass for five survey indices from three surveys: the Norwegian slope survey (G1165), the Russian autumn bottom trawl survey at the slope (G5348), and three survey indices from the Ecosystem survey (10-17cm, 18-27cm and 28-65cm). Length distributions from these three surveys and from the Joint winter survey (A6996) and the Norwegian slope survey in spring (G5678); catch-in-tonnes from five aggregated commercial fleets (Russian, trawl and minor gears; Russian, gillnet and longline; Norwegian, trawl and minor gears; Norwegian, gillnet and longline; 3 rd countries); age and maturity-at-length data from the Norwegian slope survey (G1165).
Discards and bycatch Not included, considered negligible.
Other information Last assessment update from ICES benchmark in February 2023 (ICES, 2023) used by JRN-AFWG 2023.
Working group Joint Russian-Norwegian Arctic Fisheries W orking Group (JRN-AFWG).
Table 5 Greenland halibut in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Basis of the assessment and advice.

History of the advice, catch, and management

Year ICES advice Predicted catch corresponding to advice Agreed TAC – Norway/JNRFC TAC to Norway–UK/EU zone^ in ICES subareas 2 and 6 combined ^^ ICES catches
1987 Precautionary TAC - -   19112
1988 No decrease in SSB 19000 -   19587
1989 F = F(87); TAC 21000 -   20138
1990 F = F(8 9 ); TAC 15000 -   23183
1991 F at Fmed; TAC; improved expl. pattern 9000 -   33320
1992 2 Rebuild SSB(1991) 6000 7000*   8602
1993 TAC 7000 7000*   11933
1994 F<0.1 <12000 11000*   9226
1995 No fishing 0 2500**   11734
1996 No fishing 0 2500**   14347
1997 No fishing 0 2500**   9410
1998 No fishing 0 2500**   11893
1999 No fishing 0 2500**   19517
2000 No fishing 0 2500**   14297
2001 Reduce catch to rebuild stock <11000 2500**   16365
2002 Reduce F substantially <11000 2500**   13293
2003 Reduce catch to increase stock <13000 2500**   13447
2004 Do not exceed recent low catches <13000 2500**   18899
2005 Do not exceed recent low catches <13000 2500**   18834
2006 Do not exceed recent low catches <13000 2500**   17871
2007 Reduce catch to increase stock <13000 2500**   15452
2008 Reduce catch to increase stock <13000 2500**   13806
2009 Same advice as previous year <13000 2500**   12979
2010 Same advice as previous year <13000 15000*** 350 8302
2011 Same advice as previous year <13000 15000*** 350 16605
2012 No increase in catches <15000 18000*** 350 20277
2013 No increase in catches <15000 18000*** 824 21977
2014 No new advice, same as for 2013 <15000 18000*** 1000 22840
2015 Same as for 2014 <15000 18000*** 1000 25069
2016 Precautionary approach <19000 22000*** 1100 25389
2017 Same advice as previous year <19800 24000*** 1100 26430
2018 Precautionary approach <23000 27000*** 1100 28587
2019 Same advice as previous year <23000 27000*** 1250 28792
2020 Precautionary approach <23000 27000*** 1250 28566
2021 Same advice as previous year <23000 27000*** 0 28440
2022 Precautionary approach ≤ 19094 25000*** 600 26997
2023 Precautionary approach ≤ 18494 25000*** 700  
2024 MSY approach ^^^ ≤ 15560      
Table 6 Greenland halibut in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). ICES advice, agreed TACs, and ICES catches. All weights are in tonnes.

* Set by Norwegian authorities.
** Set by Norwegian authorities for the non-trawl fishery; allowable bycatch in the trawl fishery is additional to this.
*** Set by the Joint Norwegian-Russian Fisheries Commission (JNRFC).
^ UK after 2020
^^ Part of this TAC is taken in the assessment area.
^^^ In 2023 assessment and advice was carried out by the Joint Russian-Norwegian working group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG) which compiled catches for 2022 and gave advice for 2024.

History of catch and landings

Year Denmark Estonia Faroe Islands France Germany Greenland Iceland Ireland Latvia Lithuania Norway Poland Portugal Russia Spain UK Total
1984 0 0 0 138 2165 0 0 0 0 0 4376 0 0 15181 0 23 21883
1985 0 0 0 239 4000 0 0 0 0 0 5464 0 0 10237 0 5 19945
1986 0 0 42 13 2718 0 0 0 0 0 7890 0 0 12200 0 12 22875
1987 0 0 0 13 2024 0 0 0 0 0 7261 0 0 9733 0 81 19112
1988 0 0 186 67 744 0 0 0 0 0 9076 0 0 9430 0 84 19587
1989 0 0 67 31 600 0 0 0 0 0 10622 0 0 8812 0 6 20138
1990 0 0 163 49 954 0 0 0 0 0 17243 0 0 4764 0 10 23183
1991 11 2564 314 119 101 0 0 0 0 0 27587 0 0 2490 132 2 33320
1992 0 0 16 111 13 13 0 0 0 0 7667 0 31 718 23 10 8602
1993 2 0 61 80 22 8 56 0 0 30 10380 0 43 1235 0 16 11933
1994 4 0 18 55 296 3 15 5 0 4 8428 0 36 283 1 78 9226
1995 0 0 12 174 35 12 25 2 0 0 9368 0 84 794 1106 122 11734
1996 0 0 2 219 81 123 70 0 0 0 11623 0 79 1576 200 374 14347
1997 0 0 27 253 56 0 62 2 0 0 7661 12 50 1038 157 92 9410
1998 0 0 57 67 34 0 23 2 0 0 8435 31 99 2659 259 227 11893
1999 0 0 94 0 34 38 7 2 0 0 15004 8 49 3823 319 139 19517
2000 0 0 0 45 15 0 16 1 0 0 9083 3 37 4568 375 154 14297
2001 0 0 0 122 58 0 9 1 0 0 10896 2 35 4694 418 130 16365
2002 0 219 0 7 42 22 4 6 0 0 7143 5 14 5584 178 69 13293
2003 0 0 459 2 18 14 0 1 0 0 8216 5 19 4384 230 99 13447
2004 0 0 0 0 9 0 9 0 0 0 13939 1 50 4662 186 43 18899
2005 0 170 0 32 8 0 0 0 0 0 13011 0 23 4883 660 47 18834
2006 0 0 204 44 7 0 7 0 0 196 11119 201 24 6055 2 12 17871
2007 0 0 203 39 6 198 15 0 0 0 8230 200 50 6484 10 17 15452
2008 0 0 663 40 4 0 28 0 0 0 7393 200 46 5294 112 26 13806
2009 0 0 422 16 19 16 15 1 0 0 8446 203 237 3335 202 67 12979
2010 0 0 272 102 14 15 15 0 0 0 770 2 11 6888 188 25 8302
2011 0 0 538 46 80 4 7 0 0 234 8270 169 21 7053 144 39 16605
2012 0 0 563 39 38 12 13 0 0 0 9331 21 1 10041 185 33 20277
2013 0 0 783 167 48 22 106 0 0 0 10403 29 7 10310 11 91 21977
2014 0 0 887 268 33 24 86 0 0 0 11232 17 0 10061 22 210 22840
2015 0 0 721 228 30 16 98 0 0 0 10874 13 0 12953 23 113 25069
2016 2 353 1076 226 8 17 75 0 0 0 12932 26 17 10576 27 54 25389
2017 0 523 993 175 21 25 10 0 3 72 13741 25 10 10714 36 82 26430
2018 2 574 400 148 50 19 24 0 0 204 14874 25 4 12072 59 132 28587
2019 0 587 350 103 44 21 8 0 0 347 14845 122 7 12198 86 74 28792
2020 1 579 512 37 70 47 19 0 0 260 14532 96 8 12266 96 43 28566
2021 1 382 756 138 88 14 40 0 96 160 14008 15 46 12394 125 177 28440
2022* 0 253 1055 85 94 48 27 0 75 136 13140 0 60 11746 164 114 26997
Table 7. Greenland halibut in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). History of commercial landings by country. All weights are in tonnes.

*Provisional figures.

Summary of the assessment

Year Recruitment (age 2) Female SSB Total Biomass Biomass ( ≥45 cm ) Catches Harvest rate
Thousands Tonnes  
1980 33174 73170 220981 181796 12655 0.070
1981 34503 65655 217738 178563 14466 0.081
1982 106502 69517 213525 173776 16580 0.095
1983 6949 70809 207467 167291 21773 0.130
1984 77582 68086 197564 156330 21047 0.135
1985 26066 64679 189247 146627 19768 0.135
1986 10574 61248 182387 137757 22768 0.165
1987 88075 55995 173540 126210 18744 0.149
1988 51569 52502 169723 121542 19322 0.159
1989 47586 48823 166389 118591 18352 0.155
1990 100647 46374 165870 117172 22555 0.192
1991 47861 42255 162749 110325 33318 0.302
1992 38788 33391 150062 91896 8603 0.094
1993 43924 35742 162661 100195 11932 0.119
1994 54266 37418 172100 108567 9226 0.085
1995 58792 41108 184287 121926 11734 0.096
1996 45754 44393 193735 135182 14347 0.106
1997 35962 47478 199914 145687 9410 0.065
1998 39999 53363 210132 158025 11893 0.075
1999 49363 58678 216955 165340 19517 0.118
2000 52648 60291 215514 164692 14297 0.087
2001 51887 64141 218870 169567 16365 0.097
2002 56021 66519 220046 171637 13293 0.077
2003 74955 69992 224730 174848 13446 0.077
2004 84718 72954 230346 176571 18899 0.107
2005 88078 72708 232233 173122 18834 0.109
2006 65148 72076 235773 170790 17871 0.105
2007 64334 71920 241567 170590 15453 0.091
2008 53810 73262 250343 174408 13792 0.079
2009 54759 75823 260794 182825 12991 0.071
2010 46942 78980 271488 195636 15299 0.078
2011 49075 81917 278904 208394 16684 0.080
2012 39800 85095 283502 219252 20288 0.093
2013 41745 87218 282950 224230 21164 0.099
2014 37664 88688 278874 224648 22790 0.101
2015 40472 89658 272755 222186 24748 0.111
2016 34412 89310 263299 215866 24933 0.116
2017 41795 87870 252630 207762 26379 0.127
2018 33000 84841 239640 196756 2858 8 0.145
2019 203650 79673 227113 182369 28844 0.158
2020 39757 73337 216885 166990 28705 0.172
2021 16048 66288 208581 151381 28443 0.188
2022 46353 58745 201555 135955 26998 0.199
2023   51872 200050 122949    
Table 8 Greenland halibut in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Assessment summary .

References

Howell et al. 2023. Report of the Joint Russian-Norwegian Working Group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG) 2023. IMR-PINRO no.7-2023.

ICES. 2023. Benchmark workshop on Greenland halibut and redfish stocks (WKBNORTH). ICES Scientific Reports. 5:33. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.22304638