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Advice on fishing opportunities for Northeast Arctic haddock in 2027 in ICES subareas 1 and 2

Author(s): Joint Russian-Norwegian Working Group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN- AFWG)

Report series: IMR-VNIRO 2026-2 Published: 26.06.2026 Project No.: 15565
Approved by: Research Director(s): Geir Huse Program leader(s): Maria Fossheim External: Research Director Oleg Bulatov (VNIRO)

1 - Stock Name: Northeast Arctic haddock (ICES areas 1 and 2)

1.1 - Advice on fishing opportunities

The Joint Russian-Norwegian working group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG) advises that when the Joint Norwegian–Russian Fisheries Commission management plan is applied, catches in 2027 should be no more than 180 336 tonnes .

1.2 - Stock development over time

Fishing pressure on the stock in 2025 is 0.38 , slightly above Fmsy , and is below Fpa and Flim. The spawning stock biomass in 2026 is above Bpa and Blim.

 

Figure 1 . Haddock in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Catch, recruitment, F, SSB and TSB (total stock biomass, age 3+) with 95 % confidence levels. The biomass reference points relate to SSB.
Figure 1 . Haddock in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Catch, recruitment, F, SSB and TSB (total stock biomass, age 3+) with 95 % confidence levels. The biomass reference points relate to SSB.

The total stock, spawning stock and catches are expected to increase when the medium 2023 and abundant 2024 year-classes enter the fishery and the 2021 and 2022 year-classes are fully recruited and maturing.

Variable Value Notes
F ages 4–7 (2026) 0.36 TAC constraint
SSB (2027) 186 998 Short-term forecast
Rage 3 (2026) 286 795 SAM estimate
Rage 3 (2027) 594 395 RCT3 estimate
Rage 3 (2028) 284 429 RCT3 estimate
Total catch (2026) 153 293 TAC set by 56th JRNFC

1.3 - Catch scenarios

Table 1 . Haddock in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). SSB, catch in tonnes and recruitment in thousands.
Basis Total catch (2027) F ages 4−7 (2027) SSB (2028) % SSB change * % TAC change ** % Advice change ***
Advice basis            
Management plan 180 336 0.35 209 354 12 18 18
Other scenarios            
MSY approach: FMSY 180 336 0.35 209 354 12 18 18
F = 0 0 0.00 299 789 60 -100 -100
F = F2025 193 832 0.38 202 902 9 26 26
Fpa 230 101 0.47 185 822 -1 50 50
Table 2 . Haddock in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Annual catch options. All weights are in tonnes.

* SSB 2028 relative to SSB 2027.

** Catch in 2027 relative to TAC in 2026 (153 293 t)

*** Catch value for 2027 relative to advice value for 2026 (153 293 t)

The TAC advice for 2027 is 18% higher than the advice for 2026 due to an increasing stock trend.

Advice basis Joint Norwegian-Russian Fisheries Commission management plan
Management plan The current harvest control rule (HCR) for haddock is as follows (see details in Protocol of the 46th Session of the Joint Norwegian–Russian Fisheries Commission [JNRFC, 2016]):
  • TAC for the next year will be set at level corresponding to FMSY.
  • The TAC should not be changed by more than ±25% compared with the previous year TAC.
  • If the spawning stock falls below Bpa , the procedure for establishing TAC should be based on a fishing mortality that is linearly reduced from FMSY at Bpa to F=0 at SSB equal to zero. At SSB-levels below Bpa in any of the operational years (current year and a year ahead) there should be no limitations on the year-to-year variations in TAC.
At the 46th Session of the Joint Norwegian–Russian Fisheries Commission in 2016 it was decided to keep the existing HCR for haddock for the next five years. Quota flexibility: In 2014, JNRFC decided that from 2015 onwards, Norway and Russia can transfer to, or borrow from, the following year up to 10% of the country’s quota. ICES evaluated this HCR in 2016 (ICES, 2016) and rechecked it in 2020 (ICES, 2020). ICES concluded that the HCR is precautionary.

1.4 - Basis of the advice

Table 3 . Haddock in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). The basis of the advice.

1.5 - Quality of the assessment

Figure 2 . Haddock in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Historical assessment results. The shaded areas indicate the 95% confidence intervals for the 2026 assessment.
Figure 2 . Haddock in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Historical assessment results. The shaded areas indicate the 95% confidence intervals for the 2026 assessment.

There was a benchmark in 2020, which explains the downward revision of the SSB from the first line.

1.6 - Issues relevant for the advice

The assessment was, as in 2022-2025, conducted by a Joint Russian-Norwegian Arctic Fisheries Working Group (JRN-AFWG) consisting of scientists from VNIRO (Russia) and IMR (Norway) (Howell et al., 2026).

This advice has been conducted outside ICES and should not be considered as ICES advice. However, this assessment and advice have been produced following the methodology agreed at the ICES benchmark in 2020 (ICES, 2020).

The 2015-2017 yearclasses that have dominated the catches are now being fished out and the following 2018-2020 yearclasses are weak, so there are few older and mature fish in stock. The incoming yearclasses are estimated to be average or above average. However, abundance estimates of younger haddock are uncertain. The 2023 yearclass is expected to grow over the minimum catching size during 2027 and contribute 12% of the catches in 2027. In 2027, 7% of the catches are expected to come from the 2024 yearclass, but the accuracy of this prediction is highly dependent on the fishing pattern and growth of this yearclass. Given the current fishing pattern and the high proportion of young fish in the stock, we predict growth overfishing to occur on the incoming yearclasses.

1.7 - Reference points

Table 4 . Haddock in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Reference points, values, and their technical basis.
Framework Reference point Value Technical basis Source
MSY approach MSY Btrigger 80000 tonnes Bpa ICES (2020)
FMSY 0.35 Stochastic long-term simulations ICES (2020)
Precautionary approach Blim 50000 tonnes Bloss ICES (2020)
Bpa 80000 tonnes Blim  × exp (1.645 ×  σ), where σ  = 0.3 ICES (2020)
Flim 0.77 Determined from replacement line leading from SSB = 0 to the geometric mean recruitment at SSB = Blim ICES (2020)
Fpa 0.47 Flim  × exp (−1.645 ×  σ ), where σ  = 0.3 ICES (2020)
Management plan SSBMGT 80000 tonnes Bpa ICES (2020)
FMGT 0.35 FMSY ICES (2020)

1.8 - Basis of the assessment

Table 5 . Haddock in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Basis of the assessment and advice.
ICES stock data category 1
Assessment type Age-based analytical assessment (SAM) that uses catches in the model.
Input data Commercial landings (international landings, ages, and length frequencies from catch sampling); four survey indices (RU-BTr-Q4 (Btr), BS-NoRU-Q1(Aco), BS-NoRu-Q1 (BTr), and Eco-NoRu-Q3 (Btr)); annual maturity and stock weight-at-age data from surveys; from 1984, the natural mortalities are derived from the consumption of haddock (ages 3–6) by cod.
Discards and bycatch Discarding is considered negligible in recent years.
Indicators None.
Other information Last benchmarked in February 2020 (ICES, 2020).
Working group Joint Russian-Norwegian working group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG).

1.9 - History of the advice, catch and management

Table 6 . Haddock in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Official advice, agreed TACs, the official and unreported landings, and catches used in the assessment. Since 2022, catch compilation, assessment, and advice has been carried out by the Joint Russian-Norwegian Arctic Fisheries working group (JRN-AFWG). Prior to 2022, this work was conducted by ICES. All weights are in tonnes.
Year Official advice Catch corresponding to advice Agreed TAC Official catches Unreported landings (included in catches used in the assessment) C atches used in assessment
1987 No increase in F; TAC 160000 250000 154916   154916
1988 No increase in F < 240000 240000 95255   95255
1989 Large reduction in F 69000 83000 58518   58518
1990 No directed fishery - 25000 27182   27182
1991 No directed fishery - 28000 36216   36216
1992 Within safe biological limits 35000 63000 59922   59922
1993 No long-term gains in increasing F 56000 72000 82379   82379
1994 No long-term gains in F > F med 97000* 120000 135186   135186
1995 No long-term gains in F > F med 122000* 130000 142448   142448
1996 No long-term gains in F > F med 169000* 170000 178128   178128
1997 Well below Fmed < 242000 210000 154359   154359
1998 Below Fmed < 120000 130000 100630   100630
1999 Reduce F below Fpa < 74000 78000 83195   83195
2000 Reduce F below Fpa < 37000 62000 68944   68944
2001 Reduce F below Fpa < 66000 85000 89640   89640
2002 Reduce F below Fpa < 64000 85000 96062 18736 114798
2003 Reduce F below Fpa < 101000 101000 105700 33226 138926
2004 Reduce F below Fpa < 120000 130000 124502 33777 158279
2005 Reduce F below Fpa < 106000 117000 118015 40283 158298
2006 Reduce F below Fpa < 112000 120000 131706 21451 153157
2007 Limit catches < 130000 150000 146972 14553 161525
2008 Limit catches to 2001–2004 average < 130000 155000 149776 5828 155604
2009 Apply management plan < 194000 194000 200061 0 200061
2010 Apply management plan < 243000 243000 249200 0 249200
2011 Apply management plan < 303000 303000 309785 0 309785
2012 Apply management plan < 318000 318000 315627 0 315627
2013 Apply management plan < 238000 200000 193744 0 193744
2014 Apply management plan < 150000 178500 177522 0 177522
2015 Apply management plan < 165000 223000 194756 0 194756
2016 Apply management plan < 244000^ 244000 233416 0 233416
2017 Apply management plan ≤ 233000 233000 227588 0 227588
2018 Apply management plan ≤ 202305 202305 191276 0 191276
2019 Apply management plan ≤ 152000 172000 175402 0 175402
2020 Apply management plan ≤ 215000 215000 182468 0 182468
2021 Apply management plan ≤ 232537 232537 204843 0 204743
2022 Apply management plan ≤ 1 78532 178532 176906 0 176906
2023 Apply management plan ≤ 1 70067 1 70067 178899 0 178899
2024 Apply management plan ≤ 1 27550 141000 139992 0 139992
2025 Apply management plan ≤ 106912 130000 127044 0 127044
2026 Apply management plan ≤ 153293 153293      
2027 Apply management plan ≤ 180336        

* Predicted landings at Fmed .

^ This advice was updated on 7 July 2015 in response to a special request (ICES, 2015) after a mid-year change in TAC in 2015 (from 178500 tonnes to 223000 tonnes).

1.10 - History of catch and landings

Table 7 . Haddock in ICES subareas 1 and 2. History of official commercial catch and landings by country and unreported landings. Catch information from 2021 and onwards has been provided by the Joint Russian-Norwegian Arctic Fisheries working group (JRN-AFWG). Prior to 2021, this work was conducted by ICES. All weights are in tonnes.
Year Faroe Islands France Fed. Rep. Germany. Greenland Norway Russia* Spain United Kingdom Others Unreported catches** Total
1960 172 - 5597   46263 57025   45469 125 - 154651
1961 285 220 6304   60862 85345    39650 558 - 193224
1962 83 409 2895   54567 91910   37486 58 - 187408
1963 17 363 2554   59955 63526   19809 - - 146224
1964 - 208 1482   38695 43870   14653 250 - 99158
1965 - 226 1568   60447 41750   14345 242 - 118578
1966 - 1072 2098   82090 48710   27723 85 - 161778
1967 - 1208 1705   51954 57346   24158 26 - 136397
1968 - - 1867   64076 75654   40129 0 - 181726
1969 2 - 1490   67549 24211   37234 334 - 130820
1970 541 - 2119   37716 26802   20423 656 - 88257
1971 81 - 896   45715 15778   16373 62 - 78905
1972 137 - 1433   46700 196224   17166 4493 - 266153
1973 1212 3214 9534   86767 186534   32408 2557 - 322226
1974 925 3601 23409   66164 78548   37663 10847 - 221157
1975 299 5191 15930   55966 65015   28677 4680 - 175758
1976 536 4459 16660   49492 42485   16940 6692 - 137264
1977 213 1510 4798   40118 52210   10878 431 - 110158
1978 466 1411 1521   39955 45895   5766 408 - 95422
1979 343 1198 1948   66849 26365   6454 466 - 103623
1980 497 226 1365   66501 20706   2948 261 - 92504
1981 381 414 2402   63435 13400   1682 22 - 81736
1982 496 53 1258   43702 2900 - 827 0 - 49236
1983 428 - 729   22364 680 139 259 1 - 24600
1984 297 15 400   18813 1103 37 276 4 - 20945
1985 424 21 395   21272 22690 77 153 20 - 45052
1986 893 12 1079   52313 45738 22 431 75 - 100563
1987 464 7 3105   72419 78211 59 563 88 - 154916
1988 1113 116 1323   60823 31293 72 435 80 - 95255
1989 1217 - 171   36451 20062 1 590 26 - 58518
1990 705 - 167   20621 5190 - 494 5 - 27182
1991 1117 - 213   22178 12177 - 514 17 - 36216
1992 1093 151 387 1719 36238 19699 38 596 1 - 59922
1993 546 1215 1165 880 40978 35071 76 1802 646 - 82379
1994 2761 678 2412 770 71171 51822 22 4673 877 - 135186
1995 2833 598 2675 1097 76886 54516 14 3111 718 - 142448
1996 3743 6 942 1510 94527 74239 669 2275 217 - 178128
1997 3327 540 972 1877 103407 41228 364 2340 304 - 154359
1998 1903 241 385 854 75108 20559 257 1229 94 - 100630
1999 1913 64 641 437 48182 30520 652 694 92 - 83195
2000 631 178 880 432 42009 22738 502 747 827 - 68944
2001 1210 324 554 553 49067 34307 1497 1068 1060 - 89640
2002 1564 297 627 858 52247 37157 1505 1125 682 18736 114798
2003 1959 382 918 1363 56485 41142 1330 1018 1103 33226 138926
2004 2484 103 823 1680 62192 54347 54 1250 1569 33777 158279
2005 2138 333 996 15 60850 50012 963 1899 1262 40283 158751
2006 2390 883 989 1830 69272 53313 703 1164 1162 21451 153157
2007 2307 277 1123 1464 71244 66569 125 1351 2511 14553 161525
2008 2687 311 535 1659 72779 68792 283 971 1759 5828 155604
2009 2820 529 1957 1410 104354 85514 317 1315 1845 0 200061
2010 3173 764 3539 1970 123384 111372 379 1758 2862 0 249200
2011 1759 268 1724 2110 158202 139912 502 1379 3929 0 309785
2012 2055 322 1111 3984 159602 143886 441 833 3393 0 315627
2013 1886 342 500 1795 99215 85668 439 639 3260 0 193744
2014 1470 198 340 1150 91306 78725 187 355 3791 0 177522
2015 2459 145 124 1047 95094 91864 246 450 3327 0 194756
2016 2460 340 170 1401 108718 115710 200 575 3838 0 233416
2017 2776 108 170 1810 113132 106714 228 372 2279 0 227588
2018 2333 183 385 1317 93839 90486 169 453 2173 0 191276
2019 1515 143 204 1208 93860 76125 280 456 1611 0 175402
2020 1392 96 282 910 88108 89030 45 320 2286 0 182468
2021 1722 105 365 1101 100673 98296 131 78 2272 0 204743
2022 1831 164 268 1101 89044 82364 99 138 1897 0 176906
2023 1993 235 296 672 91325 81751 139 112 2376 0 178899
2024 1637 188 645 180 71226 64423 47 152 1494 0 139992
2025** 1989 271 658 220 66659 55327 72 121 1727 0 127044

* USSR prior to 1991.

** Included in catches used in the assessment

*** Provisional figures.

1.11 - Summary of the assessment

Table 8. Haddock in ICES subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic). Assessment summary. Low and high refer to 95% confidence bounds.
Year Recruitment (thousands) SSB (tonnes) Total catch (tonnes) F
Age 3 Low High SSB Low High Ages 4–7 Low High
1950 108975 69200 171613 213259 190992 238122 132125 0.791 0.671 0.934
1951 626475 414440 946990 124916 110841 140777 120077 0.683 0.576 0.809
1952 84126 53968 131137 101095 88307 115735 127660 0.702 0.588 0.839
1953 1163158 771004 1754771 120244 103875 139192 123920 0.533 0.441 0.643
1954 129495 83074 201856 172738 146665 203445 156788 0.432 0.357 0.524
1955 58074 36824 91585 310673 265319 363780 202286 0.446 0.371 0.537
1956 220402 140946 344651 366165 311932 429828 213924 0.472 0.393 0.567
1957 59800 37971 94179 253535 217248 295883 123583 0.427 0.356 0.512
1958 72625 46638 113094 181675 157717 209271 112672 0.518 0.431 0.622
1959 381171 251352 578038 125232 108736 144230 88211 0.448 0.370 0.542
1960 314624 205972 480589 112570 99276 127645 154651 0.543 0.454 0.649
1961 142377 93415 217003 124424 110803 139719 193224 0.664 0.563 0.785
1962 289382 191296 437762 124892 110886 140668 187408 0.790 0.671 0.929
1963 308080 205451 461975 94156 82822 107041 146224 0.755 0.634 0.900
1964 345532 229076 521191 84259 74030 95900 99158 0.632 0.525 0.760
1965 124855 81036 192368 102756 89698 117716 118578 0.526 0.436 0.635
1966 307137 201411 468363 145018 126243 166586 161778 0.558 0.465 0.669
1967 333881 218503 510183 150725 129941 174834 136397 0.444 0.367 0.536
1968 18438 11396 29833 167318 144889 193218 181726 0.485 0.401 0.587
1969 20247 12493 32815 166972 143515 194263 130820 0.415 0.340 0.508
1970 204516 131956 316975 154575 131168 182159 88257 0.387 0.314 0.477
1971 109298 70747 168855 126992 107089 150595 78905 0.330 0.265 0.411
1972 1061088 693218 1624175 127984 111205 147295 266153 0.654 0.537 0.796
1973 307820 203349 465965 125082 107688 145286 322226 0.537 0.440 0.655
1974 64891 42027 100194 153299 133659 175826 221157 0.505 0.418 0.611
1975 58650 37995 90533 194035 166235 226484 175758 0.498 0.416 0.596
1976 59825 38053 94055 195625 167934 227882 137264 0.720 0.607 0.854
1977 120585 75893 191594 118638 100026 140714 110158 0.733 0.606 0.887
1978 211921 139985 320822 80868 66996 97613 95422 0.626 0.510 0.768
1979 158205 104083 240469 62284 52415 74010 103623 0.581 0.470 0.719
1980 22785 14156 36673 62627 53211 73711 87889 0.475 0.382 0.590
1981 10708 6373 17991 72555 61373 85774 77153 0.437 0.351 0.544
1982 16321 9924 26842 68425 56630 82678 46955 0.384 0.306 0.483
1983 8129 4713 14022 58242 47871 70861 24600 0.350 0.275 0.447
1984 13175 8018 21648 53016 43256 64980 20945 0.315 0.245 0.406
1985 359863 235776 549255 48976 40761 58846 45052 0.399 0.314 0.506
1986 479062 315288 727907 54773 46448 64589 100563 0.535 0.427 0.670
1987 91041 58739 141107 77835 66526 91066 154916 0.626 0.505 0.777
1988 39374 24623 62961 79954 67304 94982 95255 0.510 0.410 0.635
1989 28106 17315 45623 84346 69533 102316 58518 0.372 0.295 0.468
1990 36550 23359 57187 85453 69655 104834 27182 0.213 0.167 0.272
1991 109392 76718 155981 99757 83823 118720 36216 0.240 0.192 0.300
1992 322112 228798 453484 109994 95092 127232 59922 0.295 0.239 0.365
1993 820866 597223 1128259 124323 109641 140971 82379 0.318 0.260 0.389
1994 391874 319749 480270 159634 142857 178380 135186 0.372 0.308 0.450
1995 99788 78491 126862 195127 174318 218420 142448 0.302 0.255 0.359
1996 98928 78211 125133 225984 202098 252692 178128 0.370 0.315 0.433
1997 119383 94679 150534 196094 174959 219783 154359 0.447 0.379 0.528
1998 63142 49224 80995 135279 120030 152464 100630 0.453 0.381 0.540
1999 146665 118330 181784 97816 86869 110142 83195 0.463 0.385 0.557
2000 82738 65415 104648 81102 71925 91450 68944 0.343 0.282 0.417
2001 358864 296770 433949 95199 85069 106534 89640 0.370 0.308 0.444
2002 387214 319588 469149 113400 101419 126797 114798 0.354 0.295 0.425
2003 336975 274115 414251 143435 128995 159493 138926 0.428 0.362 0.505
2004 256950 211827 311685 162252 145906 180431 158279 0.393 0.335 0.461
2005 356172 295410 429433 173912 156429 193348 158298 0.408 0.348 0.478
2006 153951 125623 188667 157402 141536 175047 153157 0.372 0.316 0.438
2007 510002 422077 616243 159330 143627 176750 161525 0.387 0.328 0.457
2008 1058248 885209 1265111 168146 150560 187786 155604 0.319 0.268 0.381
2009 988708 829190 1178914 189554 169966 211399 200061 0.266 0.223 0.316
2010 233811 191810 285008 254839 228388 284354 249200 0.252 0.213 0.297
2011 115838 92414 145200 369752 331360 412592 309785 0.263 0.226 0.307
2012 334439 275411 406117 488053 434311 548446 315627 0.226 0.192 0.265
2013 117758 94290 147066 536597 475416 605651 193744 0.152 0.127 0.180
2014 405397 335787 489437 533417 475661 598186 177522 0.158 0.132 0.189
2015 71800 56590 91099 505545 455426 561180 194756 0.193 0.162 0.230
2016 206504 168193 253540 497770 449439 551299 233183 0.265 0.225 0.313
2017 192727 157269 236181 416370 378546 457973 227588 0.356 0.302 0.418
2018 355486 291128 434071 306104 277657 337465 191276 0.413 0.352 0.485
2019 785071 653022 943821 233900 212096 257947 175402 0.449 0.380 0.530
2020 417380 344884 505113 194343 175986 214614 182468 0.478 0.405 0.565
2021 155698 125253 193542 180887 163732 199841 204743 0.498 0.424 0.585
2022 45362 34679 59337 177659 158635 198965 176906 0.430 0.365 0.508
2023 172971 140297 213254 176883 157267 198946 178899 0.442 0.375 0.521
2024 438542 362274 530865 163034 143196 185620 139992 0.432 0.360 0.518
2025 494847 407801 600472 157942 135275 184408 127044 0.381 0.305 0.477
2026 286795 224019 367162 164781 134908 201270        

1.12 - References

Daniel Howell, et al. Joint Russian Norwegian Arctic Fisheries Working Group (JRN-AFWG) Report 2026. IMR-VNIRO 2026-5

ICES. 2015. Norway and Russia request to ICES for revised advice for Haddock in Subareas I and II . In Report of the ICES Advisory Committee, 2015. ICES Advice 2015, Book 3, Section 3.2.3.1. 9 pp. http://www.ices.dk/sites/pub/Publication%20Reports/Advice/2015/Special_Requests/Norway_Russia_had-arct_update.pdf .

ICES 2016. Report of the second Workshop on Management Plan Evaluation on Northeast Arctic cod and haddock and Barents Sea capelin (WKNEAMP-2) , 25-28 January 2016, Kirkenes, Norway. ICES CM 2016/ACOM:47, 76 pp.

JNRFC. 2016. Protocol of the 46th Session of the Joint Norwegian–Russian Fisheries Commission, 17–20 October 2016 (In Russian). 117 pp. Available at: http://www.jointfish.com/rus/content/download/502/6357/file/46-russisk.pdf .

ICES. 2020. Benchmark Workshop for Demersal Species (WKDEM). ICES Scientific Reports, 2:31. 136 pp. http://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.5548 .