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Advice on fishing opportunities for Barents Sea capelin in 2027

— ICES subareas 1 and 2 excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W

Author(s): Bjarte Bogstad (IMR), Anatoly Chetyrkin (VNIRO), Stine Karlson (IMR), Yury Kovalev (VNIRO), Dmitry Prozorkevich (VNIRO), Frøydis Tousgaard Rist , Georg Skaret and Sindre Vatnehol (IMR)

Stock Name: Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2 excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W)

Released 19.10.2026

1 - Advice on fishing opportunities

The Joint Russian-Norwegian Working Group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG) advises that when the Joint Norwegian–Russian Fisheries Commission management plan is applied, there should be zero catches of Barents Sea capelin in 2027.

2 - Stock development over time

There is less than 95% probability that the spawning stock size will be above Bescapement (200 000 tonnes) in 2027. No reference points for fishing pressure have been defined for this stock.

 

Figure 1. Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). Catch, recruitment, survey biomass (age 1+, maturing (> 14cm) and immature (≤ 14 cm) stock biomass), and SSB (1 April) with 5 and 95 % confidence limits. The biomass reference points relate to SSB. Survey biomass and recruitment values are estimates from the acoustic survey completed by the beginning of October. The recruitment plot is shown only from 1981 onwards since earlier estimates of age 1 capelin are based on incomplete survey coverage. SSB estimates are shown only from 1989 onwards because a different model was used previously, and uncertainty estimates are only available from 2018 onwards. The 2022 estimate of recruitment, mature and immature stock biomass is not corrected for incomplete survey coverage. Survey coverage was incomplete also in 2018, which might have led to recruitment underestimation.
Figure 1. Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). Catch, recruitment, survey biomass (age 1+, maturing (> 14cm) and immature (≤ 14 cm) stock biomass), and SSB (1 April) with 5 and 95 % confidence limits. The biomass reference points relate to SSB. Survey biomass and recruitment values are estimates from the acoustic survey completed by the beginning of October. The recruitment plot is shown only from 1981 onwards since earlier estimates of age 1 capelin are based on incomplete survey coverage. SSB estimates are shown only from 1989 onwards because a different model was used previously, and uncertainty estimates are only available from 2018 onwards. The 2022 estimate of recruitment, mature and immature stock biomass is not corrected for incomplete survey coverage. Survey coverage was incomplete also in 2018, which might have led to recruitment underestimation.

3 - Catch scenarios

Calculations of catch scenarios are based on a forward projection from the autumn acoustic survey. SSB for April 2027 is calculated with different sources of natural mortality from 1 October to 31 December taken from historically observed survey mortalities, and predation by immature cod from January to March.

Variable Value Notes
Maturing stock biomass 2026 60 000 Median biomass of fish above the length at maturity (14 cm), estimated based on the autumn acoustic survey 1 October 2026 (from the Bifrost model run, rounded to the nearest 1000 tonnes). These fish will be spawning in April 2027.
Predation by immature cod January–March 2027; from the predation model 30 000 Based on the prediction of cod abundance in 2027 from the 2026 cod stock assessment (Howell et al., 2026).
Table 1. Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). Assumptions made for the interim year and in the forecast. All biomasses are in tonnes. 
Basis Total catch (2027) Median SSB (2027) P(SSB 2027 > Bescapement) in % % TAC change* % advice change**
Advice basis
MP harvest control rule, P(SSB > Bescapement=200 000 t) = 95% 0 18 000 0 N/A N/A
Harvest control rule with P(SSB > Bescapement=150 000 t) = 95% 0 18 000 0 N/A N/A
Table 2. Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). Annual catch scenarios. P = probability. All weights are in tonnes. Median SSB is from the Bifrost model run, rounded to the nearest 1000 tonnes.

* TAC (2027) vs. TAC (2026).

** Advice (2027) vs. Advice (2026).

 

Figure 2. Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). Probabilistic prognosis of SSB for the maturing stock from 1 October 2026 to 1 April 2027, based on the acoustic survey estimate from autumn 2026 assuming zero catch. The median and the 5th, 25th, 75th, and 95th percentiles of the distribution are shown. Bescapement is shown in black as a dashed line.
Figure 2. Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). Probabilistic prognosis of SSB for the maturing stock from 1 October 2026 to 1 April 2027, based on the acoustic survey estimate from autumn 2026 assuming zero catch. The median of the distribution is shown in yellow, the 25th and 75th percentiles in red, and the 5th and 95th percentiles in green. Bescapement is shown as a black dashed line.

4 - Basis of the advice

Advice basis Management plan
Management plan In 2002, the Joint Norwegian–Russian Fisheries Commission (JNRFC) adopted the following harvest control rule (HCR) for Barents Sea capelin: 'The TAC for the following year should be set so that, with 95% probability, at least 200 000 tonnes of capelin (Blim) will be allowed to spawn'. ICES evaluated this HCR as well as alternative HCRs suggested by JNRFC in 2016 (ICES, 2016), and only the existing HCR was found to be precautionary. Following ICES evaluation, the JNRFC decided to maintain the existing HCR (JNRFC, 2016). It should be noted that the term Blim in the harvest control rule is replaced by Bescapement in the latest benchmark report (ICES, 2023a), and Bescapement is set to 200 000 tonnes (cf Table 4).
Table 3. Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). The basis of the advice.

5 - Quality of the assessment

The geographical survey coverage of the Barents Sea capelin stock during the BESS in 2026 was good (Figure 3). In the main distribution area the degree of coverage was very good. Lack of coverage in the ‘Loophole’ was the only significant exception.

It was noted that several of the capelin schools observed acoustically had a stronger response at 200 than 38 kHz, and appeared weaker than expected at 38 kHz. This is known to sometimes occur in capelin (Silva et al. 2025), and the biomass of such schools is likely underestimated when using standard target strength to length conversion. Future work should try to quantify the magnitude of this phenomenon, and investigate whether it is more common in years of low capelin abundance.

 

Figure 3. Survey coverage and geographical distribution of acoustic recordings of capelin in autumn 2026. The size of the circles corresponds to nautical acoustic scattering coefficient (NASC; m2/nmi2) per 1 nautical mile.
Figure 3. Survey coverage and geographical distribution of acoustic recordings of capelin in autumn 2026. The size of the circles corresponds to the Nautical Area Scattering Coefficient (NASC; m2/nmi2) per 1 nautical mile. The grey lines indicate transect sections with no capelin recordings.

 

6 - Issues relevant for the advice

This stock assessment has been conducted by the Joint Russian-Norwegian Arctic Fisheries Working Group (JRN-AFWG), consisting of scientists from VNIRO (Russia) and IMR (Norway), since 2022 (Howell et al., 2026).

This advice has been provided outside ICES and should not be considered as ICES advice. However, this assessment and advice have been produced following the methodology agreed at the ICES benchmark in 2022 (ICES, 2023a).

On request from managers (Joint Norwegian-Russian Fisheries Commission), Trochta et al. (2024) assessed harvest control rules for capelin in the Barents Sea using a management strategy evaluation (MSE), a modeling framework that simulates population and fishery responses to management actions. The form of the current escapement rule is retained and is defined by Bescapement, the biomass of spawning fish that should be left after fishing is accounted for. The MSE specifically tested four different Bescapement values (100 000, 150 000, 200 000 and 400 000 tonnes) with and without three alternative fixed minimum quotas (25 000, 50 000 or 75 000 tonnes).

All four Bescapement values without fixed minimum quotas maintained a low risk (<5%) of spawning biomass falling below Blim, the SSB below which recruitment is reduced, assuming historical capelin productivity, accurate survey estimates and that survey precision is correctly estimated. However, a Bescapement equal to 100 000 tonnes showed notably higher risk (of SSB<Blim) if the survey estimate is either biased high or survey precision is lower than assumed in the assessment. High probabilities of fishery closures resulted from Bescapement = 400 000 tonnes. All of the alternative rules using fixed minimum quotas showed very high risk of SSB falling below Blim and the model framework projected reduced future recruitment to the extent of stock collapse over the long term. In Table 2 we have thus provided catch options for the tested Bescapement values which were found to be precautionary, i.e. 150 000 and 200 000 tonnes (i.e. current HCR). Due to the low stock size, we do not show catch options for a Bescapement of 400 000 tonnes.


7 - Reference points

Framework Reference point Value Technical basis Source
MSY approach MSY Btrigger Not defined    
  FMSY Not defined    
Precautionary approach Blim 68 000 t SSB1990, which was the lowest SSB after the herring collapse that has produced a good year class. SSB estimated on April 1; tonnes ICES (2023a)
  Bpa Not defined    
  Flim Not defined    
  Fpa Not defined    
Management plan Bescapement 200 000 t The TAC for the following year is set so that, with 95% probability, at least 200 000 tonnes of capelin (Bescapement) will be allowed to spawn JNRFC (2016)
  Fmgt Not defined    
Table 4. Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). Reference points, values, and their technical basis.

8 - Basis of the assessment

ICES stock data category 1 (ICES, 2023b).
Assessment type Model based on acoustic survey and prediction six months ahead to calculate spawning biomass. Target escapement strategy used.
Input data Norwegian–Russian acoustic survey in September. Model estimates of maturation based on survey data. Natural mortalities from multispecies model (predation by immature cod on prespawning capelin based on information on cod distribution, age composition, abundance and stomach content data).
Discards and bycatch All catches are assumed to be landed. The amount of bycaught capelin in other fisheries is very low.
Indicators None.
Other information Latest benchmark was in 2022 (ICES, 2023a).
Working group Joint Russian-Norwegian working group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG).
Table 5. Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). Basis of assessment and advice.

9 - History of the advice, catch, and management

Year Official advice Catch corresponding to advice Agreed TAC Catch
1988 No catch 0 0 0
1989 No catch 0 0 0
1990 No catch 0 0 0
1991 TAC 1000000 900000 933000
1992 SSB > 400 000–500 000 t 834000 1100000 1123000
1993 A cautious approach, SSB > 400 000–500 000 t 600000 630000 586000
1994 No fishing 0 0 0
1995 No fishing 0 0 0
1996 No fishing 0 0 0
1997 No fishing 0 0 1000
1998 No fishing 0 0 3000
1999 SSB > 500 000 t 79000 80000 105000
2000 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 435000 435000 409000
2001 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 630000 630000 575000
2002 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 650000 650000 659000
2003 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 310000 310000 282000
2004 No fishing 0 0 0
2005 No fishing 0 0 1000*
2006 No fishing 0 0 0
2007 No fishing 0 0 4000*
2008 No fishing 0 0 12000*
2009 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 390000 390000 307000
2010 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 360000 360000 323000
2011 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 380000 380000 360000
2012 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 320000 320000 296000
2013 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 200000 200000 176000
2014 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 65000 65000 66000
2015 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 6000 120000 115000
2016 Zero catch 0 0 0
2017 Zero catch 0 0 0
2018 5% probability of SSB < 200 000 t 205000 205000 194520
2019 Zero catch 0 0 ** 39*
2020 Management plan 0 0** 19*
2021 Management plan 0 0** 8*
2022 Management plan ≤70000 70000 65249
2023 Management plan ≤62000 62000 60701
2024 Management plan ≤196000 196000 168694
2025 Management plan 0 0 700***
2026 Management plan 0 0 5***
2027 Management plan 0    
Table 6. Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). Official advice, agreed TACs, and catches used in the assessment. Since 2022, catch compilation, assessment, and advice has been carried out by the Joint Russian-Norwegian Arctic Fisheries working group (JRN-AFWG). Prior to 2022, this work was conducted by ICES. All weights are in tonnes; catches up to and including 2015 are rounded to the nearest 1000 tonnes.

*Research catch and bycatches in other fisheries.

**Up to 500 tonnes was allowed for research survey catches.

***Bycatches in other fisheries.


10 - History of catch and landings

Year Winter Summer–Autumn Year total
Norway Russia Others Total Norway Russia Total
1965 217 000 7 000 0 224 000 0 0 0 224 000
1966 380 000 9 000 0 389 000 0 0 0 389 000
1967 403 000 6 000 0 409 000 0 0 0 409 000
1968 460 000 15 000 0 475 000 62 000 0 62 000 537 000
1969 436 000 1 000 0 437 000 243 000 0 243 000 680 000
1970 955 000 8 000 0 963 000 346 000 5 000 351 000 1 314 000
1971 1 300 000 14 000 0 1 314 000 71 000 7 000 78 000 1 392 000
1972 1 208 000 24 000 0 1 232 000 347 000 13 000 360 000 1 592 000
1973 1 078 000 34 000 0 1 112 000 213 000 12 000 225 000 1 337 000
1974 749 000 63 000 0 812 000 237 000 99 000 336 000 1 148 000
1975 559 000 301 000 43 000 903 000 407 000 131 000 538 000 1 441 000
1976 1 252 000 228 000 0 1 480 000 739 000 368 000 1 107 000 2 587 000
1977 1 441 000 317 000 2 000 1 760 000 722 000 504 000 1 226 000 2 986 000
1978 784 000 429 000 25 000 1 238 000 360 000 318 000 678 000 1 916 000
1979 539 000 342 000 5 000 886 000 570 000 326 000 896 000 1 782 000
1980 539 000 253 000 9 000 801 000 459 000 388 000 847 000 1 648 000
1981 784 000 429 000 28 000 1 241 000 454 000 292 000 746 000 1 987 000
1982 568 000 260 000 5 000 833 000 591 000 336 000 927 000 1 760 000
1983 751 000 373 000 36 000 1 160 000 758 000 439 000 1 197 000 2 357 000
1984 330 000 257 000 42 000 629 000 481 000 368 000 849 000 1 478 000
1985 340 000 234 000 17 000 591 000 113 000 164 000 277 000 868 000
1986 72 000 51 000 0 123 000 0 0 0 123 000
1987 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1988 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1989 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1990 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1991 528 000 159 000 20 000 707 000 31 000 195 000 226 000 933 000
1992 620 000 247 000 24 000 891 000 73 000 159 000 232 000 1 123 000
1993 402 000 170 000 14 000 586 000 0 0 0 586 000
1994 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1995 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1996 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1997 0 0 0 0 0 1 000 1 000 1 000
1998 0 2 000 0 2 000 0 1 000 1 000 3 000
1999 50 000 33 000 0 83 000 0 22 000 22 000 105 000
2000 279 000 94 000 8 000 381 000 0 28 000 28 000 409 000
2001 376 000 180 000 8 000 564 000 0 11 000 11 000 575 000
2002 398 000 228 000 17 000 643 000 0 16 000 16 000 659 000
2003 180 000 93 000 9 000 282 000 0 0 0 282 000
2004 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2005 1 000 0 0 1 000 0 0 0 1 000
2006 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2007 2 000 2 000 0 4 000 0 0 0 4 000
2008 5 000 5 000 0 10 000 0 2 000 2 000 12 000
2009 233 000 73 000 0 306 000 0 1 000 1 000 307 000
2010 246 000 77 000 0 323 000 0 0 0 323 000
2011 273 000 87 000 0 360 000 0 0 0 360 000
2012 228 000 68 000 0 296 000 0 0 0 296 000
2013 116 000 60 000 0 176 000 0 0 0 176 000
2014 40 000 26 000 0 66 000 0 0 0 66 000
2015 71 000 44 000 0 115 000 0 0 0 115 000
2016 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2017 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2018 128 520 66 000 0 194 520 0 0 0 194 520
2019 5 34 0 39 0 0 0 39
2020 0 19 0 19 0 0 0 19
2021 0 8 0 8 0 0 0 8
2022 42 597 22 646 0 65 243 0 6 6 65 249
2023 37 652 23 040 0 60 692 0 9 9 60 701
2024 117 555 51 125 0 168 680 0 14 14 168 694
2025 0 0 0 0 0 700 700 700
2026 0 5 0 5 0 0 0 5
Table 7. Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). The history of official catches is presented for each country participating in the fishery. All weights are in tonnes.

11 - Summary of the assessment

Year Predicted SSB assuming catch = advised catch, 1 April (tonnes) Recruitment from autumn acoustic survey, 1 October Stock biomass from autumn acoustic survey, 1 October (tonnes) Catch
Median 5th percentile 95th percentile Age 1, millions Immature Maturing
1972         2 104 000 2 182 000 1 592 000
1973         3 796 000 1 350 000 1 337 000
1974         4 831 000 907 000 1 148 000
1975         4 900 000 2 916 000 1 441 000
1976         3 220 000 3 200 000 2 587 000
1977         2 127 000 2 676 000 2 986 000
1978         2 845 000 1 402 000 1 916 000
1979         2 934 000 1 227 000 1 782 000
1980         2 810 000 3 913 000 1 648 000
1981       402 560 2 341 000 1 551 000 1 987 000
1982       528 310 2 187 000 1 591 000 1 760 000
1983       514 880 2 897 000 1 329 000 2 357 000
1984       154 750 1 756 000 1 208 000 1 478 000
1985       38 690 572 000 285 000 868 000
1986       6 029 55 000 65 000 123 000
1987       37 578 83 000 17 000 0
1988       20 987 227 000 200 000 0
1989 84 000     189 200 695 000 174 000 0
1990 92 000     700 370 3 221 000 2 617 000 0
1991 643 000     402 090 5 034 000 2 248 000 933 000
1992 302 000     351 290 2 927 000 2 228 000 1 123 000
1993 293 000     2 237 467 000 330 000 586 000
1994 139 000     19 761 105 000 94 000 0
1995 60 000     7 130 75 000 118 000 0
1996 60 000     81 907 254 000 248 000 0
1997 85 000     98 876 598 000 312 000 1 000
1998 94 000     179 026 1 123 000 932 000 3 000
1999 382 000     155 921 1 056 000 1 718 000 105 000
2000 599 000     449 166 2 177 000 2 097 000 409 000
2001 626 000     113 587 1 610 000 2 019 000 575 000
2002 496 000     59 703 919 000 1 290 000 659 000
2003 427 000     82 444 254 000 280 000 282 000
2004 94 000     62 056 289 000 225 000 0
2005 122 000     22 661 143 000 355 000 1 000
2006 72 000     57 294 289 000 348 000 0
2007 189 000     195 125 970 000 846 000 4 000
2008 330 000     292 392 1 766 000 2 185 000 12 000
2009 517 000     172 754 1 355 000 1 892 000 307 000
2010 504 000     243 649 1 576 000 2 248 000 323 000
2011 487 000     194 255 1 544 000 2 059 000 360 000
2012 504 000     176 130 1 460 000 1 996 000 296 000
2013 479 000     323 845 2 248 000 1 725 000 176 000
2014 399 000     103 136 904 000 785 000 66 000
2015 504 000     37 832 444 000 434 000 115 000
2016 82 000     32 575 163 000 153 000 0
2017 37 000     115 370 882 000 1 547 000 0
2018 462 000 200 000 930 000 58 812 541 000 1 100 000 194 520
2019 317 000 168 282 613 733 18 029 111 000 302 000 39
2020 85 110 38 830 171 850 370 016 1 348 000 542 000 19
2021 156 376 75 197 314 559 222 667 2 528 000 1 459 000 8
2022 423 751 201 897 838 670 75 460* 1 356 000* 817 000* 65 249
2023 534 000 201 000 1 250 000 108 509 1 666 000 1 286 000 60 701
2024 590 000 201 000 1 011 000 58 560 353 000 534 000 168 694
2025 177 000 56 000 332 000 33 531 215 000 124 000 700
2026 29 082 1 317 45 784 24 094 174 000 60 000 5
2027 18 214 884 28 227        
Table 8. Barents Sea capelin (ICES subareas 1 and 2, excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W). Assessment summary. Weights are in tonnes, recruitment in millions; catches up to and including 2015 are rounded to the nearest 1000 tonnes. Recruitment and stock biomass in 1985 and earlier are survey estimates, back-calculated to 1 August (before the autumn fishing season); from 1986 and later, these values are based on the survey estimates with no back-calculation. Maturing biomass is the survey estimate of fish above the length-at-maturity (14 cm). Predicted SSB is the modelled stochastic spawning-stock biomass (after the winter fishery) from the Bifrost model run, as given in the advice of each year (rounded to the nearest 1000 tonnes in some years). The immature and maturing biomass are from StoX, rounded to the nearest 1000 tonnes.

*Not adjusted for incomplete survey coverage.


12 - References

Bogstad et al. 2026. Report of capelin assessment by the Joint Russian-Norwegian Working Group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG) 2026. IMR-VNIRO report series x-2026, xx pp.

Howell, D. et al. 2026. Report of the Joint Russian-Norwegian Working Group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG) 2026. IMR-VNIRO Report Series 5-2026, 323 pp.

ICES. 2001. Barents Sea capelin (Subareas I and II, excluding Division IIa west of 5°W). In Report of the Advisory Committee on Fishery Management, 2001, Part 1, Section 3.1.8, pp. 65–70. ICES Cooperative Research Report No. 246. 921 pp. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.5383.

ICES. 2016. Report of the second Workshop on Management Plan Evaluation on Northeast Arctic cod and haddock and Barents Sea capelin, 25–28 January 2016, Kirkenes, Norway. ICES CM 2016/ACOM:47. 76 pp. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.5296.

ICES 2023a. Benchmark workshop on capelin (WKCAPELIN). ICES Scientific Reports. 5:62. 282 pp. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.pub.23260388

ICES. 2023b. Advice on fishing opportunities. In Report of the ICES Advisory Committee, 2023. ICES Advice 2023, section 1.1.1. https://doi.org/10.17895/ices.advice.22240624

JNRFC. 2016. Protocol of the 46th Session of the Joint Norwegian–Russian Fisheries Commission, Annex 12. Translated from Norwegian to English. For an accurate interpretation, please consult the text in the official languages of the Commission (Norwegian and Russian) at https://www.jointfish.com/content/download/501/6352/file/46-norsk.pdf (Norwegian) and https://www.jointfish.com/rus/content/download/502/6357/file/46-russisk.pdf (Russian).

Silva, T., S. Þ. Jónsson, T. C. dos Santos Schmidt, et al. 2025. Influence of diel vertical distribution and physiology on capelin (Mallotus villosus) target strength measurements. Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries 35:1935-1952. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11160-025-09987-y

Trochta, J., B. Bogstad, Y. Kovalev, D. Prozorkevich, G. Skaret, S. Vatnehol, and D. Howell. 2024. Report on evaluation of harvest rules for Barents Sea capelin in subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic), excluding Division 2.a west of 5°W - full report. IMR-PINRO Report Series 17-2024, 45 pp.